The News
US President Donald Trump will likely walk away from both Russia and Ukraine if he fails to convince Moscow to agree to a ceasefire, a top geopolitical analyst predicted.
“Trump is unwilling to put sufficient pressure on the Russians to get them to ‘yes’” and is unwilling to blame them for not being able to achieve the peace deal he has prioritized, Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer said at the Semafor World Economy Summit on Thursday. “As a consequence, he walks away from both countries, which means no more US aid for the Ukrainians… and no rapprochement with Russia.”
Trump will also struggle to convince US allies to isolate China in an escalating trade conflict, Bremmer said: “He’s not doing a good job at getting the outcomes he wants in picking fights with everyone simultaneously. Even if he had had a level of very significant trust with the Japanese and the Europeans and the Canadians coming in — which he did not — he’s done so much in his power to further erode that trust over the past three months that they’re going to find every which way to say that we are not going to follow you on China.”
Bremmer said that Trump had also inflicted “permanent damage” to the transatlantic relationship with the European Union and that unlike former President Joe Biden, he does not believe that a strong, unified EU is in the US’ best interests.
“He wants Brexit all over the place,” Bremmer said. “That is a danger, and the Europeans are in a really vulnerable position going forward.”
Meanwhile, Trump’s approach to Canada has managed to undo decades of goodwill between the two neighbors, Bremmer said, describing the breakdown in the relationship as “the single biggest own-goal that I’ve seen in three months.”
Canada now believes its relationship with the US “is strategically as much of a mistake as Germans doing Nord Stream with Russia.”
However, Mexico is an outlier, Bremmer said, with President Claudia Sheinbaum expressing willingness to work with Trump on the border, trade deals, gang violence, water rights, and shipments from China. “The Mexicans will do everything possible to capitulate to us,” he said.
The Semafor View
Countries are reassessing how much they spend on defense and security in a world where the post-World War II order seems increasingly fractured. As governments struggle to boost defense budgets, the role of private companies is also in focus. The public and private approach to technical innovation could be the defining factor in any future conflicts.