Principals

1. Semafor interviews Mike Johnson
2. Alito won’t recuse
3. Dems ask DOJ to probe oil industry
4. Trump jury deliberations continue
5. US debate on Ukraine strikes
6. US-China talks

PDB: More US pressure on China for supplying Russia with dual-use tech

Harris speaks at Air Force Academy graduation …14 democracy activists convicted under Hong Kong law … NYT: Risks of Menendez’s ‘blame-my-wife strategy’

— edited by Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann and Morgan Chalfant

Mike Johnson promises Donald Trump a legacy-defining bill

Speaker Mike Johnson is preparing Republicans for quick, large-scale action if they win control of government in November, starting with a gigantic reconciliation bill. Johnson laid out his plans in an interview with Semafor’s Kadia Goba, and said he’s already been pitching to Donald Trump on a turnkey legislative agenda that would make him “the most consequential president of the modern era.” Trump could be the first president since Grover Cleveland to get a second crack at their first 100 days and Johnson said he’s been studying how to make the most of a do-over. “We don’t want to make the mistake that we made in the past,” Johnson said. “Back in the 2017 timeframe and in previous years, we Republicans kind of took a single-subject approach to reconciliation. We did one round of health care reform, one round of tax reform.” This time, he said, they’re starting an organized process now to craft a bill with a “much larger scope” that covers taxes, border security, energy, and potentially much more.

Alito says he won’t recuse from Trump cases, again blames spouse for flags

Another banner day for the Supreme Court: Justice Samuel Alito said Wednesday he would not recuse himself from criminal cases involving Donald Trump, despite the revelation that flags associated with the “Stop the Steal” movement were hung outside his home. In a letter to Democrats explaining his decision, Alito continued to pin blame for the ensigns on his wife. “I was not even aware of the upside-down flag until it was called to my attention,” he wrote. “As soon as I saw it, I asked my wife to take it down, but for several days, she refused.” In response, Senate Judiciary Chair Dick Durbin called on Chief Justice John Roberts to end the “spiraling decline in America’s confidence in our highest Court by taking decisive action to establish a credible code of conduct.”

Introducing Mixed Signals, a new podcast from Semafor Media presented by Think with Google. Co-hosted by Semafor’s own Ben Smith, and renowned podcaster and journalist Nayeema Raza, every Friday, Mixed Signals pulls back the curtain on the week’s key stories around media, revealing how money, access, culture, and politics shape everything you read, watch, and hear.

Whether you’re a media insider or simply curious about what drives today’s headlines, Mixed Signals is the perfect addition to your media diet. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

Senate Democrats demand DOJ probe oil industry

Democrats are picking a new fight with the oil industry. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and 22 Senate Democrats are writing today to Attorney General Merrick Garland and antitrust division chief Jonathan Kanter, pushing for an investigation of potential collusion and price fixing in the sector. They cite recent FTC allegations that former Pioneer Natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield tried to coordinate production with OPEC officials. Semafor reported earlier this month that the regulator planned to recommend possible criminal charges. Now, Senate Democrats are asking for broader scrutiny of the oil industry and possible antitrust law violations. “The federal government must use every tool to prevent and prosecute collusion and price fixing that may have increased gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, and jet fuel costs in a way that has materially harmed virtually every American household and business,” they write.

No verdict in Trump trial — yet

The first day of jury deliberations in Donald Trump’s Manhattan hush-money trial ended with no verdict. Instead, the jurors sent notes back to Judge Juan Merchan asking to rehear excerpts of testimony as well as Merchan’s instructions. When the jurors reconvene on Thursday morning, a court reporter will reread to them the testimony from former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker and former Trump attorney Michael Cohen, per The New York Times. While the world awaits a verdict, Trump continued his attacks on the case and claimed that “Mother Teresa could not beat these charges.” In a memo, Trump campaign officials Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita argued the outcome doesn’t actually matter to voters.

Biden admin could reverse policy on Ukraine strikes in Russia

Top Biden administration officials signaled Wednesday that they’re moving closer to letting Ukraine use US-provided weapons to strike targets inside Russia. During a news conference in Moldova, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US could “adapt and adjust” its current policy of not allowing such strikes. White House national security communications adviser John Kirby told reporters that while there is no change to current US policy, support for Ukraine would continue to evolve “appropriately.” President Biden has long opposed allowing Ukraine to use American weapons in Russian territory, worried it could quickly escalate the conflict. But now the White House “has begun a formal — and apparently rapid — reassessment of whether to take the risk,” David Sanger writes in The New York Times.

US, China discuss a new channel

The US and China will discuss opening up another military communication channel when Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets his Chinese counterpart, Dong Jun, this week in Singapore, Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant and Mathias Hammer report. The possibility of creating a dialogue between the US Indo-Pacific Command and China’s Eastern Theater Command “will be an item of discussion in our meeting this week,” a Pentagon spokesman said. One analyst said that such a communication line would allow the new Indo-Pacific commander, Adm. Samuel Paparo, to establish a rapport with the Chinese commander responsible for China’s armed forces near the Taiwan Strait. “Primarily, it’s for Taiwan. Because there’s such high-tempo operations on both sides around Taiwan that the potential for an accident or crisis to develop is quite high,” said Lyle Morris of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Beltway Newsletters

Playbook: Black operatives and officials are airing concerns about President Biden’s outreach to the key voting bloc. “I think that the way that we communicate has changed in such a way that, if you don’t invest earlier, it’s going to be a problem,” said Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas. “I’m not saying that it’s the last minute, but we are in crunch time.”

Axios: The Biden campaign isn’t sure a guilty verdict for Donald Trump in his Manhattan trial would make a difference in the election.

WaPo: The Biden campaign’s outreach to Republican voters who aren’t on board with Trump has been slow going and faces plenty of challenges. “I’m a lifelong Republican, and I have some real issues from a policy standpoint with some Biden administration policies,” said one Nikki Haley fundraiser. “The Biden campaign has not reached out to me, and I don’t think they should.”

White House

• President Biden delivered a lengthy and fierce denunciation of Trump’s record on race at a Philadelphia event with Black voters. “What would’ve happened if Black Americans had stormed the Capitol? I don’t think he’d be talking about pardons,” Biden said. “This is the same guy who wanted to tear gas you as you peacefully protested George Floyd’s murder. It’s the same guy who still calls the ‘Central Park Five’ guilty, even though they were exonerated. He’s that landlord who denies housing applications because of the color of your skin.” — Politico
• Vice President Harris will speak at the Air Force Academy’s graduation in Colorado Springs this morning, and afterwards will receive a briefing at US Space Command headquarters.
• The White House has a plan to help the nuclear power industry.

Congress

• Senate Judiciary Committee member Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., wrote today to Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts urging him to not assign opinions or circuit justiceships to justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas if they don’t recuse themselves from cases related to Donald Trump, Jan. 6., and the “stop the steal” movement.
• Republican lawmakers investigating last year’s suspension of the Biden administration’s special Iran envoy, Robert Malley, uncovered evidence he downloaded sensitive and classified documents and may have shared them with individuals outside the US government to advance his diplomatic efforts, Semafor’s Jay Solomon reported.
• Indicted Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, is also under investigation by the House Ethics Committee.
• Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., visited Israel.
• Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, a contender for Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick, asked Attorney General Merrick Garland to open a criminal investigation into Judge Juan Merchan, who is overseeing Trump’s Manhattan hush-money trial.

Think Tanks

At an estimated $4 trillion, renewing expiring pieces of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is expected to cost about 50% more than budget forecasters thought it would back in 2018, according to a new research note by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Outside the Beltway

• Pennsylvania appears to be sitting atop a sizable lithium deposit: Researchers at the University of Pittsburgh found that wastewater from fracking in the state likely contains enough of the mineral to supply 30% to 40% of the country’s needs.
• Yale picked its new president: Maurie McInnis, the current president of Stony Brook University.
• A new law in Louisiana will make it illegal to approach police under certain circumstances.

Economy

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Martin Gruenberg has told senior staff that he’s prepared to remain on the job for several months at least until a successor is confirmed. Gruenberg said last week he would resign in the wake of investigations that showed a toxic workplace at the banking regulator. — WSJ

Courts

San Francisco’s City Hall removed an “Appeal to Heaven” flag similar to the one flown outside Alito’s New Jersey beach house after 60 years, saying it had come to be associated with a group that “doesn’t represent the city’s values.” — SF Chronicle

Polls

Fifty-eight percent of Americans say they are closely following news about the presidential candidates, and 62% report already being worn out by the amount of coverage, according to new data from the Pew Research Center.

On the Trail

• Donald Trump has discussed a possible role for Elon Musk in a second Trump administration should he win in November. The Tesla CEO also briefed on a “data-driven project to prevent voter fraud” he is currently working on. — WSJ
• Trump’s super PAC is creating a “content creators” website. — Daily Caller
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission over his exclusion from the first presidential debate on June 27. Kennedy claims the Biden and Trump campaigns illegally colluded with CNN to keep him out of the debate in Atlanta.

Foreign Policy

• The US is worried about Ukraine striking Russian nuclear radar stations. — WaPo
• Wally Adeyemo, the No. 2 Treasury Department official, told reporters in Kyiv that Washington is looking for ways to tighten enforcement of oil sanctions on Russia and warned China that it could face new repercussions from the US and its allies if companies continue to supply Russia’s defense industry with dual-use technology. “China needs to stop providing them with these goods and if they don’t we’re going to be forced … to take action,” Adeyemo said.
• Meanwhile, Kurt Cambell, the No. 2 State Department official, is warning Europe about China’s “deeply concerning” aid to Russia’s defense industry.
• A top Israeli official said the war in Gaza would continue “for at least another seven months.”
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was “surprised and disappointed” that the Biden administration would not back an effort in Congress to sanction the International Criminal Court. — Politico
• Ukrainian soldiers say that US-made Abrams tanks are giving them problems. — CNN
• The US will boycott a tribute at the UN today for Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash earlier this month. The UN General Assembly traditionally holds tributes to any world leader who was a head of state at the time of their death. — Reuters

Technology

• California Gov. Gavin Newsom warned about over-regulating artificial intelligence.
• A former deputy sheriff in Palm Beach County, Fla. is fueling Russian disinformation operations from Moscow.
• Chinese car maker BYD, the world’s largest maker of EVs, unveiled two hybrids with an overall range of 1,300 miles — enough to drive from New York City to Miami.

Big Read

Are election forecasters making a mistake by being too accurate? Ethan Chen raises the possibility in a deep analysis of Cook Political Report and Crystal Ball predictions for Split Ticket. CPR has gotten over 95% of their “lean Democrat” or “lean Republican” calls correct over nearly four decades. It’s a “superb” record, but one that might muddy the distinction between “lean,” “likely,” and “safe” ratings.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Former Trump campaign spokeswoman Katrina Pierson won a Republican congressional primary in Texas.

What the Right isn’t reading: Former Trump attorney Jenna Ellis was barred from practicing law in Colorado for three years following her guilty plea in Fulton County, Georgia.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Editor-at-Large: Steve Clemons

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Young Kim is a Republican congresswoman from California. We asked her about the news that China would again send giant pandas to the National Zoo.

• The White House is fueling the carbon offset market without fixing it.
• North Korea’s new balloon launch is a bit stinky.
• Pandas are back but students are out.