Semafor World Economy Summit: Views from policymakers and CEOs on global security

On the urgency of an EU-US trade deal: “We do see a sense of urgency to find an agreement,” Kukies said, referring to the IMF slashing the global growth forecast over trade uncertainty. He said that CEOs he’s spoken to have emphasized the need to reduce trade uncertainty, saying that both the business community and consumers are delaying their investment and consumption decisions. The uncertainty, he said, is “bad for everyone.”

“The longer we wait for an agreement, the longer we let the uncertainty in both of our economies linger, and I just don’t see that as a positive,” he warned.

On Europe’s defense spending: Kukies said given the geopolitical risks, “Europe will have to do a lot more than just meet the NATO target of 2%” in contributing to defense spending. “Namely, we will have to be able to build the European pillar of NATO to be so strong that it can make a much bigger contribution.”

On the White House’s domestic terrorism strategy: Gorka said the administration’s new counterterrorism plan will likely be ready in a month — and will “utterly, completely” differ from the prior government’s approach to domestic terrorism.

“The difference between the strategies couldn’t be starker,” he said, adding, “We will not be using the counterterrorism enterprise against those who politically disagree with us.”

On the Ukraine war: Gorka asserted that Ukraine “was invaded” by Russia — a break from the position of Trump, who has blamed Ukraine for starting the war. “It is right for us to support [Ukraine], to re-establish its independence,” Gorka said. Addressing the slow pace of peace negotiations, Gorka said he was “a little bit disappointed with Kyiv as much as I’m disappointed with Moscow,” but added that Trump’s approach to the war is working. “[Trump] communicated it two days ago, that there’s a certain level of frustration in the Oval Office, and Kyiv and Moscow better pay attention.”

On the strategy against Houthi rebels: “The president has defined for us what victory looks like with regards to the Houthis,” Gorka said. “It means freedom of maritime transit through [the al-Mandab Strait] all the way through the Red Sea, and to the Suez Canal.” Attacks on US ships within that strait “would not be allowed to stand,” he said.

On Pete Hegseth: Himes, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said, “I don’t think Pete Hegseth is up to the job. I think he’s deeply out of his depth.”

Himes did not say whether he thinks Hegseth should resign as defense secretary over his involvement in the Signal chat leaks about US strikes targeting Houthis, but said: “A genius would struggle to do that job well and Pete Hegseth is not that genius.”

On competing with China on AI: “We’re not falling behind China in the AI race, but we’re also not that far ahead,” he said. “If we do not act intentionally about maintaining that lead with all that that requires, we will soon be behind.”

On Trump’s approach to a Ukraine peace deal: Himes said the Trump administration’s plans to end the war on Ukraine were conceding far too much to Russian demands. “A plan that says you keep Crimea, you keep the current lines, you don’t get security guarantees, and thank you very much for the minerals — I mean, that’s not a peace plan, that’s extortion,” he said.

On the risk of data breaches: Becker said avoiding data breaches will depend on how a company chooses to house their data system.

“We’ve architected our system to hold as little data as possible,” Becker said. For example, “We used to hold Social Security numbers because years ago, you needed that as part of the identity stack.” Now, she said, “We don’t. We purged them all.”

On identification technology applications: Becker argued the company’s identification technology can be applied widely across sectors, including health care, business, and possibly even electoral systems. “When you’re talking about voter ID, you’re really wanting to ensure that someone is who they say they are with depth and certainty. You just want to make sure it’s done in a constructive and inclusive way.”

On how tariffs might affect AI investments: Knopp said that the uncertainty tied to tariffs hasn’t directly impacted AI spending yet. He said his firm is seeing companies increasing their investments in generative AI, as well as in AI agents and personas to make everything more efficient.

On AI destroying jobs: Knopp said he can foresee situations where entire jobs might be replaced by AI. “The nature of the jobs and the activities that people are going to be doing is becoming less clear” in the next few years, Knopp said. But he predicted that “over the long term, it’s going to promote job growth.”

AI use and privacy concerns: Knopp said a recent KPMG survey found that 54% of consumers are secretly using AI at work. “That’s a big concern because it’s not subject to the governance and the risk architecture of the organization,” he noted.

On the rise in ransomware breaches: “Almost 40% of breaches involve some form of ransomware,” he said, with ransom payments averaging “north of $100,000.”

He said the majority of cyberattacks come from criminal actors or organizations, “someone [who] wants an economic advantage.” He said only 3% to 4% of attacks “tend to be nation-state actors doing other, more complicated things.”

On Elon Musk’s and DOGE’s efforts: Bannon said that before Musk pulls back from his work with the Department of Government Efficiency, he needs to make clear what fraud and waste in the federal government has been uncovered. “We need to have a very specific accounting of what he found as far as fraud goes and waste, and I mean details,” said Bannon. “None of this makes sense.” Bannon also said he wants a letter of certification showing that no one has taken any data from the Trump administration or government, to which Semafor’s editor-in-chief Ben Smith asked, “Sounds like you don’t trust [Musk] not to take data?” 

“Trust, but verify,” said Bannon, who has called Musk “evil” in an escalating clash with the tech billionaire.

On the US’ trade war with China: The market’s response to Trump’s China moves is “irrelevant to me,” Bannon said. “The Chinese Communist Party has been at economic war with us for 20 years,” he said, adding that the US would come out on top. “It’s a battle between two systems. If you think their system’s going to win, you’re kidding yourself. We’re gonna win this.”

On raising taxes for millionaires: Bannon, a vocal advocate of raising taxes on millionaires, urged the Trump administration “to do what they’re talking about,” referring to recent reports that the president’s inner circle is considering this.

“This is a massive tax cut to workers and the middle class,” he said. “Not only do you extend the tax [cuts] that President Trump has, but no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security — that can lead us to other tax relief for the middle class and the working class.”

On trade negotiations with China: “I’m optimistic that we will have a deal with China, and I’m optimistic that we will be able to take the temperature down a bit and provide both economies and the world breathing space,” Miran said.

On criticism of Trump tariffs: Miran said he didn’t agree with comments Republican donor Ken Griffin made earlier at Semafor’s summit, in which he said that the tariff rollout had “eroded” the “American brand” and that it could take “a lifetime to repair the damage that has been done.”

“You’ve got to look forward through what’s happening now with tariffs, to the trade deals that are being negotiated, to the tax relief that is being negotiated with Congress,” Miran said. “All of these, on the other side of the volatility that’s happening right now, are going to create a strong economy.”

On the need to manufacture and export more goods: Miran said the US trade surplus in services doesn’t obviate the need for more domestic manufacturing. “Services are critically important, but goods are critically important too,” he said. “We can’t have all of our eggs in one basket and no eggs in the other basket. We need to make sure that we’re diversified.”

On likelihood of a recession: “I think the conventional wisdom, which I wouldn’t disagree with, is that there’s a 50% to 60% chance that we’re going to have a recession,” Rattner said. “On average, people are at a record level of pessimism.”

On the deficit: “We do have a huge budget problem and frankly, there’s no courage on Capitol Hill, certainly among the Republicans, to do anything about it,” said Rattner. The GOP’s budget proposal could add an unprecedented $5.8 trillion to the country’s deficit over the next decade, he noted.

On being Senate majority leader in 2027: “I believe I will. Trump is alienating people left and right,” Schumer said. “I remember what they said in 2020, ‘You’ll never become majority leader.’ And then we surprised them and won two seats in Georgia.”

On a possible primary challenge from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: “I’m focused on making sure the people of New York and the people of America know how bad Trump is,” he said. “I have found throughout my career, you do your job and everything works out just fine.”

On Democrats’ hopes of winning back the Senate: “The electorate will desert the Republican candidates who embraced Trump in an overwhelming way. Trump is alienating people left and right.”

On how New Yorkers are responding to Trump’s economic plans: “They’re aghast about the lack of thinking of how these tariffs work. They’re aghast at the chaos, different people saying different things every day,” Schumer said. “You talk to business people… They need some kind of certainty. They don’t have it. And they were aghast at the foolishness of the plan.”

On Trump’s China strategy: “Look, targeted, smart tariffs make sense against China,” Schumer said. “What Trump did is chaos and disaster. He’s turned the whole world against America, and China is seeking alliances and seeking to take advantage of the stupidity of the Trump tariffs, and that’s why you even have such dissent in the administration.”

On investing in a robust grid for electrification across sectors: “The combined investor-owned utilities in the United States will invest over $200 billion in infrastructure capital this year alone to get it done,” said Butler. As for Exelon specifically, “we will invest, over the next four years, $38 billion, investing in capital [of] $9.1 billion this year” across several states.

On building more infrastructure: “We’re building now. It’s not a matter of whether we can build, it’s a matter how quickly we can build. And permitting reform is required,” he said. He believes the political will for that reform exists now. “There’s a lot of momentum and consensus around it because everyone sees the need,” he said.