Semafor World Economy Summit: Views from policymakers and CEOs on global growth

On CEOs’ reaction to economic uncertainty: Lesser said the tone of his talks with top executives around the world has shifted from the optimism in the period around the US presidential election and Donald Trump’s inauguration, which lasted until February. Since then, CEOs have reported rising levels of stress, especially in light of the White House’s April tariff push. “We’re only a few weeks in, but the level of uncertainty that people are feeling, it’s really tough,” he said. That soured mood is not confined to US-based executives, he said; foreign CEOs — and even Chinese CEOs — who have spent years building companies with tens of thousands of employees are worried. “It’s not just a US CEO thing,” Lesser said, with the uncertainty functioning as a kind of tax on action.

On what CEOs should be doing: BCG’s chief economist prescribes what he calls “strategic optionality,” Lesser said. “In a world of high uncertainty, where you don’t have control, then what you need to do as much as possible is build ‘strategic optionality’ into your thinking, figure out what are the no regret moves, the things you should do no matter what.” Lesser also highlighted the importance of using innovative technologies like artificial intelligence and other strategies to boost productivity and efficiency. “You may not necessarily want to put capital in the ground, but you’d better be investing to be as productive as you can be in a more difficult economic environment,” he said. Another strategy for companies would be to focus on building more flexibility into supply chains to avoid price volatility.

On strategy in an uncertain market: The disruption and uncertainty in the markets has created opportunities for savvy investors, Lorentz said. “Generally, everything gets pulled down in these markets when there’s volatility, and so for a business like ours, which is mostly active management, there’s tremendous opportunity of [investing in] really high-value companies.” Looking back at past financial crunches, Lorentz argued that “if you go back to markets where there’s a lot of disruption, that’s when typically the biggest opportunities are… It’s just trying to make sure you understand where those bets are, and hedging them in some way.” 

On opportunities for investors: Lorentz flagged private income and private credit as possible options for investors seeking to grow capital. But the overall uncertainty is also pushing more money into cash, particularly in Asia, where “you could get paid 8% on a government bond to sit on the sidelines.” Lorentz indicated that Manulife is overall bullish on emerging Asian markets, particularly India, which has “tremendous growth potential.”

On US trade protectionism: People shouldn’t be surprised by the changes happening in Washington around moves like tariffs, Schwartz said. “It was sort of well-advertised,” Schwartz said. “If you think about how national security for all countries became a dominant thematic after Russia went into Ukraine… These were thematics that were in place long before the tariffs,” he said.

On spending: Demand for capital will inevitably increase, according to Schwartz. “In some respects, this can be a very unique time to deploy capital in the world,” though he added that it’s important to be “very finely attuned to the risks associated with policy change, whatever policy change that may be.” At this point, it remains “very difficult not to allocate capital to the United States,” given “the history of rule of law, the performance of companies.” After a month, Schwartz said he doesn’t see that historical trend “pivoting.”

On buying companies: Schwartz anticipates reduced transaction volume in the public and private markets for some time, and that people may not get attractive prices. In terms of what Carlyle looks for in a potential acquisition, Schwartz indicated that “we’re looking for unique businesses with differentiated management teams, where you feel they can be competitive over a long period of time, and they have a market positioning that we can help them build.” He went on: “It could be a carve-out of a company that really wasn’t allowed to grow... It could be an opportunity where we think we could roll up an industry and create lots of scale and growth.” Given the prevailing uncertainty, he said, Carlyle would “price for the incremental risk premium.”

On the European economy: Johnson said Washington’s holding Europe accountable for larger defense contributions seemed positive, describing the continent as “a bit too reliant” on other world powers for defense and energy. She also questioned why “there haven’t been more tech unicorns there.” European nations have “brilliant people,” but suggested the bloc’s stringent digital markets and tech regulation have created an environment that does not necessarily foster such growth. “This is a wakeup call where Europe says, we can’t rely on the US,” she said, adding that more self-reliance could ultimately be a net positive.

On whether international investors will shift assets from the US to domestic markets: The history of innovation among US companies is hard to ignore, Fleming said: “The innovation process, the entrepreneurial process, the capital formation, the capital getting into the right company’s hands,” are all among America’s greatest strengths, he said. Many of today’s massive companies, he noted, “were startups” 20 years ago. Whether European countries can create a similar environment for startups to grow remains to be seen, he said: “We’re going to find out.”

On the prognosis for US farmers: Ford said she’s concerned about how farmers will fare in 2026, because they’re already in a tough financial position. “This is the third year in a row where there’s been weakness in commodity prices, and so we’re seeing a weakening position from the farmer now,” she said. Tariffs will have an impact on farmers’ exports, and especially in key markets for soybeans, like China. Even before Donald Trump returned to the White House, the Biden administration’s restrictions on China had seen a rise in Brazilian imports of soybeans to China, with Brazil overtaking the US on production, Ford said. “These trade arrangements are critical for the profitability of the American farmer.”

On best use cases for artificial intelligence: Nilekani said some companies could benefit most from using AI agents that can perform useful, specific actions, like customer service. “This will be the tipping point” for business use, he said. In terms of the societal upsides, AI technology has huge potential for language translation, education, agriculture innovation, and energy efficiency, he said. “It’s not about AI replacing jobs,” Nilekani said. “It’s about AI amplifying human potential. And in a society where there are not enough doctors, not enough teachers, can you actually use AI” to reach more people.

On India’s role in AI: “India will lead” in efforts to advance AI, Nilekani said. The nation represents a “huge talent pool for AI already,” he said, as indicated by the large numbers of Indians on coding platforms like GitHub. India could also play a role in deploying AI in ways that “make sense,” he said. “It’s nice to build more models, but you have to make it work for some useful purpose in that area.”

On the Trump administration’s trade measures: Pritzker, who served as US President Barack Obama’s Commerce Secretary, was critical of the second Trump administration’s policies. “I don’t think there’s a clear plan or strategy, and that’s a real challenge, and it’s having an effect on business,” she said. If China poses a trade problem, she asked, “why aren’t we solidifying our relationships with our allies?” The US should be investing in housing and infrastructure, developing a clear immigration policy, and getting “much tougher” on protecting intellectual property, Pritzker argued. She also criticized the White House’s inconsistency: “Jumping from thing to thing is a real problem. It undermines our credibility not only with our own people and with our own businesses but across the world.”

On Harvard’s role pushing back against Trump: Pritzker, who leads the Harvard Corporation, said she’s seen widespread support for the university since its decision to oppose the Trump administration’s threat to pull federal funding over its handling of protests on campus and antisemitism. The former US Commerce Secretary said the funding cuts and demands for government control represented “an unprecedented situation,” adding that “people don’t want our federal government running our universities and our colleges.” Antisemitism is personal for her, she said, but while there’s a real need for some reform on campuses, “attacking research, attacking who you’re going to hire on campus, attacking life-saving medical therapies, I don’t see how that’s related to fighting antisemitism.”

On US small businesses: The PayPal CEO described small businesses as the “lifeblood of our economy,” warning that they face significant financial challenges. “Small businesses survive on money in, money out, and access to capital.” That reality means these companies “get squeezed very, very quickly.” In that environment, access to capital becomes a determining factor, with those small businesses that have the least access to capital facing the greatest challenges. “We’ve put $30 billion of working capital loans into the small business community,” he said. But other stakeholders need to chip in, he said: “We can’t do it alone.”

On small Asian countries and trade: Smaller Asian economies don’t want to retaliate over US tariffs, but nations also do not want to appear weak during negotiations, said Bharadwaj, who is based in Singapore. “We want a proactive way for a solution, and we want this to be a multi-pronged conversation that is not only about trade, but about multiple levels of relationships with the United States,” she said. For now, small Asian merchants are looking to be more agile, but they are also unsure what to expect, Bharadwaj added: Many have hit “a pause button.” The stakes are high: “Planning for a 10% tariff during the pause versus planning for a 25% is very different. If you’re a food manufacturer, that’s your entire margin times three,” she said.

On balancing relations between the US and China: Canberra’s diplomatic approach toward Beijing and Washington does not represent a binary choice, Rudd said, noting that “both these economies are extraordinarily significant” for Australia. The “eternal principle of Australian international relations theory,” he quipped, is “walking and chewing gum at the same time.” Rudd, a former Australian prime minister, described the Indo-Pacific economy as having to balance between China and the US: “Anyone who seeks to turn this into a binary, I think, will have great difficulty, given how intermeshed the economies of not just Australia and the United States and China, but the rest of the Indo-Pacific, our friends in Korea, our friends in Japan, our friends in Southeast Asia… These are all deeply intermeshed.″⁣

On US-China relations: Wang, who leads a Beijing-based think tank, said the US trade war on China isn’t justified, noting that China isn’t overly concerned because it has become less dependent on US imports in recent years. “China actually is quite prepared already,” Wang said, adding that the country had “already experienced a trade war.” The US, however, still relies heavily on China for manufacturing support, and Wang suggested that American producers remained unlikely to build more domestic capacity. “Manufacturing in the US was abandoned years ago because it was too heavy, too dirty,” Wang said.

On the UAE’s ties with the US: The UAE feels well-positioned in terms of its relationship with Washington regardless of who occupies the White House, Al Mubarak said, citing the Gulf nation’s investments and energy and defense ties. That “deep relationship” means the US will remain a “major destination” for UAE capital, he said. That said, US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the escalating trade war has prompted Mubadala to reassess how it is thinking about future investment. “What we are doing is changing our base case assumptions,” Al Mubarak said, adding that while that means they are taking a bit more time to look at investments, “we’re not stopping.”

On diversification and the promise of artificial intelligence: When Mubadala started 20 years ago, its portfolio was “pretty much 100% energy” Al Mubarak said. Now, energy makes up less than 20%, he said. The UAE has sought to be on the frontier of AI investment, Mubarak said, stressing the technology’s transformative capacity. “We are continuing to heavily invest in that space,” he said, and that includes building data centers.