Mike Johnson saved Ukraine aid. Will donors care?

Speaker Mike Johnson is being re-evaluated in political circles after breaking with conservative rebels to pass Ukraine aid — and that includes among donors.

Taking over for Kevin McCarthy and his vaunted fundraising operation, large donor money has been slower to pour in so far. Now, both Johnson’s critics and supporters are waiting to see whether his decision on the national security package changes things.

Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, one of the rebels threatening to oust Johnson, is making the case that the speaker’s ability to raise cash will only get worse from here as it becomes clear he’s reliant on Democrats to maintain his position at all.

“Even if he were able to change the rules in order to hang on to power and form some coalition with Democrats, he can’t win speakership next year, and frankly, the donors aren’t inspired to talk to a speaker who’s a lame duck,” Massie said on Fox Saturday, echoing similar comments he made on CNN earlier last week.

Others have also speculated the vote could cost Johnson with smaller donors, who are more likely to be plugged into the MAGA networks that led the charge against the aid bill and are currently threatening to primary incumbent Republicans they view as moderate.

“The animus against him is coming from the grassroots who are mad over his capitulation to send aid to Ukraine without border reform,” a senior House Republican aide told Semafor.

But some in GOP fundraising circles see Johnson’s latest move as a potential turning point, not only because more traditional major donors agree with him on the merits of Ukraine assistance, but because they see his newfound decisiveness as a sign he may be able to stick around.

“He achieved some conservative wins, helped America lead, and neutralized a challenge from the far right — all of this will earn him credibility with Republican donors, including with those who have been skeptical of his ability to navigate a razor-thin majority.” one former senior Republican aide familiar with political fundraising operations, told Semafor.

“In less than six months and after just one full quarter in office, Speaker Johnson has built a team from the ground up and traveled across nearly 25 states raising more than $30 million to grow the House Republican majority,” Johnson’s campaign spokesman Greg Steele told Semafor. “The Speaker continues to build on this momentum thanks to strong support from grassroots activists and major donors across the country.”

It was always going to be tough to fill McCarthy’s shoes as a lesser-known member, especially with a chaotic GOP conference that’s competing for scarce resources with other Republican candidates and outside groups around the country during a presidential election year. One vote is unlikely to fully change that.

“He’s new. He’s surrounded by threats to his authority, not only in the House but every other R-affiliated political org in town,” one Republican in regular contact with fundraisers said. “A lot of donors I know are, like, ‘I’m not dealing with the House anymore — I’m just going to focus on the Senate, I can’t take this craziness.’”

But some also see Johnson making steady progress in building trust, and the Ukraine episode helping him with more business-minded donors who are still sizing him up.

“Johnson’s views on social issues won’t align with every donor, but if he demonstrates an ability to lead when the moment calls and is able to keep the various factions of the House GOP from tearing each other apart, donors who care about Republicans keeping the House majority will be there for him,” the former senior Republican aide said.

They added he’s been “doing all the right things” in recent weeks, including meeting large donors, visiting members in their districts, pledging to protect them from challengers, and building an infrastructure to reach grassroots donors, much like his predecessor, former Speaker McCarthy. Johnson is visiting eight states this week, including a stop by Columbia University where he sparred with Israel-Gaza protesters — always a hit across the Republican spectrum.

He also has help from other veteran members of Republican leadership, like Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Whip Tom Emmer and Chair Elise Stefanik which isn’t unusual but even more relevant this cycle with an abrupt change at the top. And despite being outraised by their Democratic rival last quarter, the top GOP-affiliated super PAC, Congressional Leadership Fund, has maintained a cash-on-hand advantage and kept pace with the last cycle.

“Kevin McCarthy’s departure left a fundraising gap that everyone in leadership is working to fill,” a House GOP leadership aide said. “Republican leadership has been criss-crossing the country to ensure House Republicans have the resources necessary to win in November.”

Bloomberg reported last month on Johnson’s difficulty connecting with some Republican donors. National Republican Congressional Committee chair Richard Hudson defended Johnson saying he had “exceeded my expectations” after having to sub in for McCarthy mid-cycle.