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The Hot List

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Updated Apr 29, 2024, 2:45pm EDT

Semafor’s subjective, dynamic ranking of the elections you should be paying attention to right now — based on their urgency, their importance, and their connection to the great political forces shaping our world.

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1
India – BJP emboldened
Legislative election results to be announced June 4, 2024

India could find itself contending with a more radical Hindu nationalist government than ever before if forecasts of a Narendra Modi landslide ends up correct. Modi’s BJP intends to “completely restructure the Indian state as a Hindu nation,” as one analyst put it. The party has recently begun to pursue some of its most wide-reaching political goals yet, with the introduction of a slate of laws both nationally and in individual states that target religious minorities, and Muslims in particular. According to Hartosh Singh Bal writing in Foreign Affairs, this persecution has only “accelerated” — and by the numbers, could amount to the “largest marginalization in human history,” impacting over 200 million Indian citizens.

India last appeared on the Hot List at #1, as nearly 1 billion voters are registered to vote in this election.

Joey Pfeifer
2
South Africa – Eminem endorsement
Legislative elections on May 29, 2024

Did Eminem intervene in South Africa’s election? No, but deepfakes have been going around suggesting the rapper endorsed the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters, currently polling double digits in surveys. Drawing over 373,000 views on TikTok, Eminem’s mouth was “digitally modified” from an old interview to fit a computer-generated speech denouncing shortcomings of the ruling ANC, per Rest of World’s new AI Election Tracker. The project looks at the increasingly visible impact of AI in elections around the world.

ArrowSouth Africa last appeared on the Hot List at #1, after courts decided former president Jacob Zuma was allowed to run.
3
South Korea – Elected defector
Legislative elections held April 10, 2024

An escapee from North Korea was elected to South Korea’s Parliament for the incumbent conservative party. A missile researcher who defected from the country at age 23, Park Choong-kwon believes his unique experience positions him well to contribute to inter-Korean policymaking. Part of the “Jangmadang Generation” that experienced famine in the 1990s, members of Park’s cohort grew up with the rise of widespread informal markets in North Korea. Despite the ruling party’s stark defeat in South Korea’s legislative elections, Park was elected this round through proportional representation.

ArrowSouth Korea last appeared on the Hot List at #4, with a feature on the role of green onions in its legislative election campaign.
Joey Pfeifer
4
Ecuador – Security referendum
Referendum held April 21, 2024

As violence soars in Ecuador, a security referendum initiated by the president was overwhelmingly approved by voters. The referendum was intended to ratify the president’s hardline stance on crime, in a country that has seen numerous political assassinations since last year’s presidential election campaign, and rampant gang violence — including a news station that was taken hostage earlier this year. Noboa, who was elected last year seemingly out of nowhere, has drawn some comparisons to El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, and the worsening situation has led the president to enact increasingly more severe measures.

ArrowThis is Ecuador's first appearance on the Hot List.
5
Italy – Salvini out
Legislative elections in 2027

Matteo Salvini was once the leading figure of Italy’s far-right — now, he’s barely relevant, and his Lega party’s former leader wants him gone. Discontent with Salvini within Lega ranks has been brewing for a while. The nationalist politician was viewed as a prime-minister-in-waiting after a breakout performance in the 2018 election, but eventually saw his fortunes derailed by the emergence of Giorgia Meloni and her Brothers of Italy party, who campaign in a very similar lane. Lega, once known as “Lega Nord,” was founded to advocate for Northern Italian secession; Umberto Bossi, the party’s founder, is demanding that Salvini step down over dismal election results and polling. In that event, the party could eventually be brought back in line with its separatist impulses.

ArrowItaly last appeared on the Hot List at #9, looking at its Eurofederalist "United States of Europe" alliance.
Joey Pfeifer
6
Ghana – Business mindset
Presidential election on December 7, 2024

Ghana’s recently-revealed “masked candidate” for president turned out to be a millionaire businessman nicknamed Cheddar campaigning on “radical ideas” to transform the country. Nana Kwame Bediako says he wants to bring the “same kind of team” from his world of business into politics, to establish a “different mindset.” Part of his prescriptions include divestment from what he labels “foreign influence in the economy,” and Bediako plans to build factories in order to shore up Ghanaian supply chains. His run is already facing headwinds, however, with the government accusing him of owing over $500,000 in taxes.

ArrowGhana last appeared on the Hot List at #9, with an item on ties between Ghana and Nigeria's ruling parties.
7
USA – Sinking approval
Municipal election in 2025

Support for New York City mayor Eric Adams is sinking, with 73% of voters disapproving of his tenure in a recent survey. With the next mayoral election just a year away, polls like these might actually matter. Some 65% declared they’d back another candidate, although if Adams ends up securing the Democratic nomination, those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt in a city that has trended strongly blue over recent cycles. But that primary could be Adams’ vulnerability, and if potential heavy-hitters decide to run — like last election’s close runner-up, Kathryn Garcia — the mayor’s bizarre rants and corruption scandals might end up scuttling him for good.

ArrowThe USA last appeared on the Hot List at #9, with the shotgun vigilante claims of a North Dakota gubernatorial candidate.
Al Lucca
8
Japan – Political heckling
Legislative elections in 2025

A recent Japanese documentary looks at an unfolding “crackdown” on political hecklers which has picked up in intensity in the wake of ex-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s assassination. Heckling and Democracy” warns of a “threat to freedom of expression,” according to academic Jeffrey J. Hall. Numerous incidents have been reported over the years detailing police intervention against disruptors at events and public appearances for politicians. As Hall points out, however, some political parties appear to have a campaign strategy aimed at “testing” the police in this regard.

Japan last appeared on the Hot List at #8, with a shift in voter sentiment against the LDP.

9
UK – Drummer run
Legislative elections likely this year

The drummer from the 90s-era band Blur will appear on UK general election ballots as a parliamentary nominee for the opposition Labour Party. Dave Rowntree, the band’s drummer since its formation in 1988, is running in the constituency of Mid Sussex, typically a Conservative stronghold. With Labour polling so high nationally, however, no analyst can predict how exactly the vote will shake out in this election, even in the most solid of Tory seats. If anyone is capable of breaking through in deeply Conservative territory, it might just be the middle-aged drummer of a famous Britpop band.

ArrowThe UK last appeared on the Hot List at #3, looking at rumors surrounding a revolt against Rishi Sunak.
Al Lucca
THE BIG READ
Reuters/Pedro Nunes

Portugal marked 50 years since the Carnation Revolution that overthrew the dictatorial Estado Novo regime — though the rise of the far-right raises questions about the country’s historical memory. Writing for The Guardian, political scientist Valente Valim pointed out that “distance” from “the collective memory of the dictatorship” is making the country lose sight of its democratic values, contrary to supposed “immunity” from authoritarianism that once characterized descriptions of Portuguese politics. Instead, the emergence of the far-right Chega party, which approached 20% of the vote in recent parliamentary elections, is contributing to a broad coarsening of the country’s politics. While excluded from government so far, red lines around a party that got up and left during celebrations of the Carnation Revolution may not last forever.

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