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Trump’s threat of new tariffs reignites global trade fears, the US evacuates personnel from the Midd͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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cloudy Mexico City
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June 12, 2025
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The World Today

  1. Trump warns of new tariffs
  2. China to cut Africa levies
  3. ‘Historic’ risks for CCP
  4. BYD makes Europe move
  5. Iran-US tensions rise
  6. Netanyahu pressure grows
  7. Mexico murders down?
  8. Trump at Kennedy Center
  9. Amazon AI video ads
  10. AI brain-to-speech tool

Mexico’s stolen fuel crisis, and revisiting Brian Wilson’s finest work.

1

Trump readies tariffs, again

LA port.
Mike Blake/File Photo

US President Donald Trump said he would unilaterally set new tariff rates within two weeks, reigniting global trade fears shortly after agreeing a truce with China. Trump’s latest threat, which sent stocks lower, came as the European Union acknowledged negotiations with Washington would likely extend past a July deadline, when a 90-day suspension of Liberation Day duties expires. CNBC also noted that the White House’s framework agreement with Beijing leaves tariffs on goods from China at 55%, too high for many American importers to bear. The latest “slow grind” of US trade pronouncements “may be less turbulent than this past spring’s drama,” a Reuters columnist noted, “but [is] no less worrying for investors.”

For the latest on the economic fallout from the trade war, subscribe to Semafor’s Business briefing. →

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2

China to cut tariffs for Africa

A chart showing China-Africa trade by year

China pledged to cut tariffs for almost all African nations, offering a sharp contrast with Washington as the superpowers vie for influence on the continent. Beijing’s announcement came during talks with African officials in central China, where attendees called on a protectionist US to “return to the right track of resolving trade differences.” China has over the past quarter-century deepened economic ties with Africa, growing trade more than 20-fold in that time, while Washington’s main trade pact with the continent is set to expire in September. Beijing’s announcement is not solely targeted at Washington, but is also aimed at addressing China’s trade imbalance with African nations that has caused friction with the continent’s leaders, the think tank ODI Global noted.

For more from the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa briefing. →

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3

CCP faces ‘unprecedented risks’

Xi Jinping
Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters

China’s Communist Party has displayed remarkable resilience over the past century, but faces “unprecedented risks,” leading China watchers argued. In a compendium of essays published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, multiple experts noted the Party had shown itself to be adaptable by accepting capitalists into its ranks and intensifying its focus on security and technology. Yet the Party’s multiple missions to maintain social stability, grow the economy, and control the military present “significant challenges,” while its erasure of historical records means it may lose its ability to learn from prior mistakes — a collection of “formidable, historically rooted challenges.”

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4

BYD price war goes global

A chart showing the number of EVs sold globally, by brand

BYD has launched its cheapest and smallest electric vehicles in Europe, as the Chinese EV price war spreads worldwide. The Dolphin Surf, a hatchback, will retail for around $25,000 in the UK and EU, three times the Chinese price, partly thanks to tariffs. European manufacturers including Citroën, Renault, and Dacia have anticipated the move by releasing their own compact EVs to compete, and analysts said that prices had room to drop further as automakers turn to cheaper battery types. The price war is bruising for China’s domestic auto industry, but the Financial Times argued that increased competition in the UK and Europe could boost vehicle demand, which is still below pre-pandemic levels, and bring EV prices in line with petrol cars.

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5

US orders Mideast evacuations

The US embassy in Baghdad.
The US embassy in Baghdad. Ahmed Saad/Reuters

The US began evacuating non-essential personnel from diplomatic and military installations across the Middle East after Israel was reported to be readying an operation in Iran. The partial evacuation of the Iraq embassy, among other staff withdrawals, came as talks between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear program appear to have stalled, with American officials fearing reprisals if Israel follows through on its plans, CBS said. US President Donald Trump held a “tense” call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in which Trump reportedly told him that strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities were “off the table for now” despite the Israeli leader’s demand that a “credible military threat” be maintained.

For the latest from the region, subscribe to Semafor’s Gulf briefing. →

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6

Netanyahu survives key vote

Benjamin Netanyahu.
Ronen Zvulun/Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu survived a vote to dissolve his government, but was left weakened. Netanyahu’s coalition relies on ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties, who want religious students to remain exempt from Israel’s compulsory military service, a demand the Supreme Court rejects. A last-minute deal stopped those parties from voting with the opposition, but is “unlikely to solve the conundrum” long-term, The New York Times reported, and the split gives opposition parties an opportunity to divide and challenge the government. Netanyahu is a political survivor, but is under pressure: Rifts are also growing with US President Donald Trump, who reportedly demanded an end to Israel’s operation in Gaza this week, a move Netanyahu is unwilling to make.

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7

Mexico drop in murders questioned

A chart showing historic numbers of disappearances in Mexico

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said murders had fallen by a quarter since the start of her term, but experts say the drop is partly explained by the government reclassifying killings. The claim came as data showed disappearances surged by 60% in the first 100 days of Sheinbaum’s presidency, including more than 1,000 teenagers, and reached a monthly record in May. Beyond the human toll, unabated violence is taking a huge toll on Mexico’s economy, the second-biggest in Latin America: According to a think tank, the economic impact of violence amounted to $245 billion in 2024, roughly 18% of the country’s GDP.

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8

Trump center stage at Kennedy Center

Donald and Melania Trump
Kent Nishimura/Reuters

US President Donald Trump was greeted with boos and cheers at a performance of Les Misérables at Washington’s Kennedy Center, after mounting a takeover of the US cultural landmark. The night’s performance was attended by groups ranging from major Trump donors — some of whom paid as much as $2 million for tickets — to people dressed in drag to protest the president’s opposition to the Kennedy Center hosting drag shows. Trump in February fired the Kennedy Center’s board and made himself chair, transforming what had been a “performing arts space and presidential memorial… to the central setting in a campaign to bring America’s cultural institutions and arts organizations to heel,” The Wall Street Journal noted.

For the latest from Trump’s Washington, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics briefing. →

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9

Gen AI ads coming soon

An AWS logo.
Benoit Tessier/Reuters

Amazon boosted its artificial intelligence video-generation tools, making it easy for sellers to create AI ads to promote products within minutes. Its app can create 21-second clips for free, allowing users to rapidly generate logos, text, and background music. Meta, meanwhile, plans to automate the creation and targeting of ads on its platforms by the end of next year by using artificial intelligence, The Wall Street Journal reported. Video generation is advancing rapidly, to the concern and excitement of filmmakers: Disney and Universal are suing image-generator Midjourney, which is planning a video service, for copyright infringement, while Hollywood is increasingly making use of AI tools to alter voices and make actors appear as their younger selves, among other effects.

For more on the fast-changing world of AI, subscribe to Semafor’s Tech briefing. →

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10

AI brain interface allows speech

A brain computer interface.
Flickr Creative Commons photo/Ars Electronica/CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

An artificial intelligence-powered brain-computer interface allowed a paralyzed man to hold real-time conversations and even sing using a synthetic voice. The BCI read the man’s neural activity via 256 electrodes implanted in parts of his brain used to control facial muscles: Researchers asked him to read thousands of sentences and say them out loud, while recording his brain activity. The result was near-instantaneous voice synthesis and considerable nuance: He was able to use inflections, such as “How are you doing today?” versus “How are you doing today?“, the researchers told New Scientist. Existing speech BCIs exist usually take several seconds to translate brain activity into sounds, making natural conversation hard.

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Flagging
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin will hand out scientific and artistic awards as part of annual Russia Day celebrations.
  • Foreign ministers from European NATO member states will meet in Rome to discuss Ukraine.
  • The UK version of the AIDS Memorial Quilt will go on display at London’s Tate Modern.
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Semafor Stat
25%

The estimated share of Mexico’s vehicles that run on contraband fuel, worth as much as $21 billion a year. Cartels have long sold stolen fuel, most of it siphoned — with the collusion of government officials — from pipes belonging to the state-owned oil giant Pemex. However the most powerful criminal groups, including the Jalisco New Generation cartel, now run a multinational operation to smuggle fuel from the US in ships capable of carrying up to 250,000 barrels, an investigation by the Financial Times found. “It’s one of the biggest black markets for hydrocarbons on the planet,” an expert said.

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Semafor Recommends
A Semafor recommends illustration.

Pet Sounds by the Beach Boys. Brian Wilson, the creative power behind the Beach Boys, died this week aged 82. The band made its breakthrough with a series of songs about surfing in the early 1960s, but the experimental Pet Sounds — although a critical and commercial flop at the time — is its most influential; in 2004 it was inducted into the US Library of Congress “due to its cultural, historical, and aesthetic significance,” Pitchfork noted in an obituary of Wilson. The New York Times said in a retrospective that the album is “beautiful — with gorgeous vocal harmonies, haunting timbres and wistful lyrics of adolescent longing and estrangement.” Listen to Pet Sounds on Spotify.

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Semafor Spotlight
Steve Case, the former CEO of AOL, and Jerry Levin, the former CEO of Time Warner.
Chris Hondros via Getty

Warner Bros. Discovery’s split is the latest proof that conglomerates are deeply out of fashion, Semafor’s Liz Hoffman and Rohan Goswami write.

Glomming diverse operations together smooths out profits through business cycles, and it mutualizes economic risk — it also mutualizes scandal, tainting a corporate empire with the real or perceived sins of one subsidiary. And with US President Donald Trump looking for points of leverage, corporate sprawl is a real liability.

Subscribe to Semafor Business, what C-Suites and Wall Street are reading. →

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