The News
US President Donald Trump heads to the Gulf this week on a visit aimed at reaching security and technology deals, with his own family’s business dealings not far from the spotlight.
Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates during the trip, which will likely see Saudi officials push for more access to civilian nuclear equipment and AI chips. US negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear program are also expected to come up.
Trump also suggested that he could also go to Turkey to attend negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on Thursday, and will reportedly also meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa, the president of Syria.
SIGNALS
Trump pushes for deals, but one major ambition may elude him
Donald Trump’s trip to the region reflects the White House’s hope to secure deals worth more than $1 trillion — Gulf nations have pledged about $2 trillion in investment in the US since his election. For Saudi Arabia, Trump’s visit shows that the US remains an attractive partner even after geopolitics and bureaucracy have complicated several proposed deals, the editor-in-chief of Arab News argued. While the Gulf’s investment promises have won “Trump’s attention,” one analyst argued, it may not secure “leverage” over Washington: The US could still push for decoupling with China, the biggest buyer of Gulf oil. Yet Trump’s grand ambition to secure Saudi-Israel normalization is expected to elude him, as Riyadh insists on a Gaza ceasefire before talks can resume.
Gulf states expected to encourage US-Iran nuclear deal
Gulf leaders are expected to encourage the US to reach a deal with Iran to limit its nuclear program. “The Saudis and the UAE have realised that if Iran is really menaced and attacked, they will be the victims of a counterattack,” an expert told the Financial Times. While Gulf states have been “delighted” by Iran’s recent setbacks, “they are less inclined than Israel to think that their interests would be served by taking the war to Tehran,” an analyst wrote in Foreign Affairs. Ties between Riyadh and Tehran have improved in recent years, after decades of bitter rivalry: Saudi Arabia came to doubt the credibility of US support during Trump’s first term, leading it to reengage with Tehran “to avoid ever again getting caught in the crossfire of US–Iran rifts,” one analyst argued.
Israel left on sidelines in Trump’s Middle East itinerary
Donald Trump’s visit to the region comes as cracks have started to emerge in his formerly friendly relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israeli officials were caught off guard by Washington cutting a deal with Yemen’s Houthis, and are concerned by the successful negotiation of a hostage release with Hamas — without Israeli input — as well as Iran nuclear talks “It’s total panic,” a former Netanyahu aide told The Washington Post. The Israeli leader has tied his political project so closely to Trump that Israel has become “subject to the whims of a man whose logic is known only to himself,” one conservative Israeli pundit argued. Still, Israeli officials are lobbying Trump to add a stop in the country, Axios reported.