Principals

1. Biden’s debate downer
2. Leaked emergency abortion ruling
3. House takes on DOJ budget
4. Bolivia coup attempt thwarted
5. Undoing Trump’s early vote damage
6. Garret Graves’ NSFW lobbying take

PDB: J.D. Vance auditions to be Trump’s VP

Israeli defense minister says “bottlenecks” in US arms shipments has eased … WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich’s secret trial begins in Russia … China says it’s not undermining diplomacy with US

Biden’s debate downer

President Biden arrives in Atlanta with a fresh batch of concerning polls to raise the stakes for his CNN debate with Donald Trump. The New York Times/Siena poll found him down 48-44 with likely voters. Quinnipiac University, whose polls are known for a slight Democratic lean, found him trailing Trump for the first time this year by a 49-45 margin with registered voters. Nate Silver debuted his new forecasting model — and gave Trump a 2:1 chance of victory based on polls and fundamentals. Gallup released polling showing Biden’s approval stuck at 38%, Trump’s favorable rating up to 46%, and voters far more concerned about Biden’s age than Trump’s. In an accompanying analysis, Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones noted that Biden’s approval with Democrats would likely improve closer to the election — but independents are a tougher nut to crack.

Bizarre Supreme Court leak previews abortion ruling

The Supreme Court is set to rule that Idaho hospitals must provide abortions in emergencies that threaten a pregnant mother’s health — at least, according to an accidentally leaked document. Bloomberg Law noticed the apparent decision went up online on the court’s own website before being quickly removed, a strange echo of the Dobbs decision that Politico famously scooped early via source-based journalism. Assuming nothing changes, the 6-3 ruling wouldn’t make a broader ruling on the underlying legal issue, but allow a lower court order to take effect that would allow emergency abortions to take place. In a separate, deliberately scheduled 6-3 ruling, the court ruled in Murthy v. Missouri that the government can ask social media companies to take down misinformation. Justice Amy Coney Barrett wrote that the plaintiffs did not have standing to sue.

House takes on DOJ budget

As Donald Trump rages against his federal indictments, House Republicans are looking to slash funding to law enforcement. A House Appropriations subcommittee advanced a spending package that would cut Department of Justice funding by 20% and funding for US attorneys by 11%. Appropriators have been in a tug of war on spending bills between lawmakers looking to advance broadly bipartisan legislation that can pass the Senate (this will not) and conservatives looking to advance their causes with targeted cuts and riders on social issues. One thing they can’t easily do, The New York Times notes: Defund Jack Smith, whose budget as Special Counsel falls outside standard appropriations.

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Coup in Bolivia thwarted

Bolivian police arrested the leader of an apparent attempted coup shortly after soldiers stormed the government palace. General Juan José Zuñiga — who was sacked as army chief earlier this week after making disparaging comments about former President Evo Morales — gathered hundreds of troops in La Paz’s main square in a bid to “restructure democracy” in the country. Morales was forced out of office in 2019 by military leaders after trying to manipulate the results of an election. The coup attempt highlights a growing rift between Bolivia’s rural mountainous regions, which vote in support of left-wing governments including the current one, and the more urbanized lowlands, which have backed rightist and military leaders.

Will Republicans ever vote early again?

Republicans resolved to revive their early vote turnout efforts this cycle after Donald Trump’s false conspiracy claims made it radioactive with his base in 2020. The New York Times reports on America PAC, a new group that’s rapidly spent over $6 million gathering voter information, encouraging early voting, and spreading video messages on social media from Trump himself talking up the practice. But they’re not the only group in the game: A progressive super PAC in Pennsylvania recently ran ads featuring older footage of Trump decrying mail-in ballots as “totally corrupt” in an apparent effort to sabotage GOP turnout efforts. At Slate, election expert Richard L. Hasen writes that the ad likely isn’t illegal voter suppression, as the Trump campaign has suggested, but that it “sends a terrible message, and the super PAC’s tactics deserve condemnation.”

Garret Graves looks past Congress

Forced out by a new Congressional map, Rep. Garret Graves, R-La. said he has “no idea” what’s next for him after leaving the House. “Bottom line is [I] have no plans. I’m really not sure but I do have a mortgage to pay in January,” he told Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig. Graves issued a statement on Tuesday announcing he’s not running for any elected office this year, and even ruled out “dog catcher.” Graves is an influential Republican on energy issues, prompting speculation about a plum job on K street, but he said that doesn’t sound appealing either. “Doing the traditional lobbying prostitution model is not something that’s really attractive to me,” he said.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul is asking for a waiver from his conference’s term limits in order to remain the top Republican on the committee for another two years.

Playbook: The Trump campaign and RNC are tasking Nick Luna to be director of VP operations as the former president nears a choice on his running mate.

WaPo: The Democratic National Committee has set up fixed and mobile billboards in Atlanta highlighting Donald Trump’s indictments in Georgia and his role in overturning Roe v. Wade.

Axios: Former First Lady Michelle Obama has been frustrated with the Biden family’s treatment of Hunter’s ex-wife Kathleen Buhle, a friend of hers, which may be affecting her level of involvement in the race.

White House

Members of President Biden’s Cabinet will wrap up a brainstorming tour today after two weeks on the road, touting the administration’s economic accomplishments in 29 public events in 15 states ahead of his debate with Donald Trump.

Congress

• Speaker Mike Johnson and other House leaders voted Tuesday to reject the last Congress’ handling of the Jan. 6 select committee in an 11th-hour effort to boost former Trump adviser Steve Bannon’s appeal of his 2022 conviction for defying a subpoena from the panel. Meanwhile, the Justice Department has told the Supreme Court it’s time for Bannon to begin his four-month prison sentence.
• Six prominent Israelis, including former Prime Minister Ehud Barak and former Mossad spy agency chief Tamir Pardo, are urging that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu be disinvited from addressing a joint session of Congress on July 24. “Inviting Mr. Netanyahu will reward his contempt for U.S. efforts to establish a peace plan, allow more aid to the beleaguered people of Gaza and do a better job of sparing civilians,” they wrote in an op-ed in the New York Times. They also said Netanyahu has not come up with a plan to end the war in Gaza or “gain the freedom of scores of hostages.”
• Rep. Troy Nehls, R-Texas, said he is no longer wearing a badge awarded to soldiers who served in combat after the US Army revised his military record to show he didn’t qualify for the medal.

Economy

• Boeing is facing an allegation that a whistleblower was fired by a subcontractor after he raised concerns about lapses in 787 Dreamliner production.
• The Department of Health and Human Services said Wednesday it will lower the costs on 64 prescription drugs for the third quarter for some enrollees in Medicare Part B.
• More than one-third of consumers said they were concerned about making ends meet, up from nearly 29% last year, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Courts

• The Supreme Court on Wednesday ruled that federal anti-corruption law didn’t apply to payments and gifts intended to reward actions by state and local officials.
• Former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández was sentenced Wednesday to 45 years in prison over his conviction on US drug and firearm charges.

On the Trail

• Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, is running an ad in six states during the CNN debate targeting Black voters from the left by dredging up criticism of Biden’s opposition to busing, legislative work with segregationist senators, and clashes with then-rival Kamala Harris in the 2020 primaries.
• Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio auditioned during an interview on Fox & Friends on Wednesday to be Donald Trump’s vice president, saying he has been contacted by the former president’s campaign and that he’d be “disappointed” if he’s not selected. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott will sit down with the show today while North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum will appear on Monday.
• Fairshake PAC, a super PAC with $100 million in funding from cryptocurrency companies, is 33-2 in House and Senate primaries so far. The PAC doesn’t plan to spend on the presidential campaign, but will focus on congressional races, with both chambers in play. — CNBC
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. plans to stream his own “real debate” during Thursday’s Biden-Trump debate.

Polls

According to an offbeat YouGov poll, Americans think Biden would be a better babysitter and houseguest than Trump, while Trump would handle spicy foods better and defeat Biden in poker.

Foreign Policy

• Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant said Wednesday that talks with the White House this week eased “bottlenecks” in arms shipments to the Israeli military, a sign the two countries want to ease tensions fueled by allegations the US was withholding weapons.
• Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich’s trial on espionage charges began in secret on Wednesday. The hearing ended after two-and-a-half hours, and the court said the next one will be on Aug. 13.
• China has denied US ambassador Nicholas Burns’ recent accusation it is undermining diplomacy.
• Iranians go to the polls tomorrow to elect a new president following the death of former President Ebrahim Raisi last month. Semafor’s Mizy Clifton writes the results may mean more of the same.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: The Air Force has fired the top official overseeing the Sentinel nuclear missile program, which is currently under a review by the Pentagon over ballooning costs.

What the Right isn’t reading: IRS delays in resolving identity theft cases are “unconscionable,” an independent watchdog within the agency said, even though taxpayer services have vastly improved.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Editor-at-Large: Steve Clemons

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Samir Jain is the Vice President of Policy at Center for Democracy and Technology, a non-profit organization that advocates for digital rights and freedom of expression.