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Time running out to meet 1.5 degree warming limit

Jun 19, 2025, 6:58am EDT
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A view of Chandrapur Super Thermal Power Plan.
Priyanshu Singh/Reuters

The world will have emitted too much carbon dioxide within the next three years to keep below the 1.5°C warming target, a new study suggested.

The 2015 Paris Agreement saw governments pledge to limit warming to 1.5°C, which scientists regard as a critical turning point. But with temperature increases accelerating, new research estimates that the remaining carbon “budget” to avoid passing the threshold dropped from 500 billion tons in 2021 to 130 billion now, less than three years’ worth at current rates.

The International Energy Agency predicts that oil use will peak before 2030, but that forecast is contested: OilPrice.com noted that global uptake of green technologies may be slowing.

A chart showing global CO2 by region.
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