The News
China successfully test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday in a launch Beijing’s defense ministry said was “routine” and part of its “annual training.”
But the country’s nuclear weapons tests usually take place domestically, the BBC reported, with this believed to be the first time since 1980 that an ICBM was launched into international waters.
China said all concerned countries had been notified in advance, which the Japanese government disputed.
SIGNALS
A show of strength
It’s rare for Beijing to publicly announce nuclear weapons tests, which are usually conducted in isolated provinces, Reuters reported. China was trying to show that its Rocket Force is still doing “business as usual” despite recent corruption scandals, an Indo-Pacific expert told the outlet. The historic test, coming just weeks ahead of an expected call between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, may have also been Beijing’s way of telling Washington: “Like you, we’re not ashamed we have nuclear weapons, and we’re going to behave like a nuclear power,” a nuclear expert told The Associated Press.
…But China may also have specific military objectives that go beyond posturing
China may now lay claim to one of the fastest-growing arsenals among the nine nuclear-armed states, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and its stockpile is expected to reach about 1500 warheads by 2035. Beijing’s nuclear modernization is about more than simply projecting an image of military strength, and relates to specific objectives, a columnist argued in Foreign Affairs: Increasing its force “survivability” to deter the US from initiating even a first strike; improving weapons to get past US defense systems; making sure it has enough low-yield warheads that a smaller-scale US attack could be met with a proportionate response; and bolstering itself against nuclear threats from Russia and Iran.
A second Trump administration could pose even greater risks to China than his first
Earlier this year, Biden approved a revised (and highly classified) nuclear strategy that focuses Washington on China’s arsenal expansion, The New York Times reported in August. The new approach emphasizes “the need to deter Russia, the PRC, and North Korea simultaneously,” amid the growing likelihood of collaboration, the US National Security Council’s senior arms control director said. If Trump is reelected president in November, we can expect the same “active hostility toward arms control and a cavalier attitude toward nuclear risk” witnessed during his first administration, albeit with potentially much more serious consequences as Iran moves closer to a nuclear weapon and Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, a Brookings Institute expert argued.