The News
Lebanon’s parliament has elected a US-supported army chief to be the country’s new president, ending the political stalemate that had left the country without a leader since 2022.
General Joseph Aoun secured 99 votes from the 128-seat parliament, after winning an endorsement from the Hezbollah-backed candidate. The career soldier is the fifth army commander to be elected president in Lebanon’s history.
Tensions between Hezbollah and its opponents had left the parliament unable to appoint a new leader for years, but as the Iran-backed militia and its political party’s power has waned over the last year under Israeli pressure, Lebanese lawmakers saw a breakthrough.
Aoun is widely seen as the US and Saudi Arabia’s preferred candidate: Aoun kept the Lebanese army out of the war between Israel and Hezbollah. More than 40 Lebanese troops were killed in Israeli strikes, but the army did not clash with Israel.
SIGNALS
Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon is waning
Joseph Aoun’s election was widely seen as a sign of Hezbollah’s weakness, as the Tehran-backed group has long had reservations about the general’s candidacy, Reuters wrote. Israel has hammered Hezbollah in recent months with rockets, missiles, and targeted killings, leaving the group weakened, but not defeated, a Lebanese researcher told Al-Monitor. Along with Hezbollah’s diminished influence, Iran’s own weakened footprint in the region and renewed Saudi engagement made Aoun’s rise to power possible, a Lebanon expert argued. President Aoun pledged that only the state army will have weapons, a reference to Hezbollah’s massive arsenal of weapons, half of which is believed intact despite Israel’s bombing campaign.
Aoun will immediately have to oversee Lebanon’s reconstruction
Lebanon’s new leader will immediately face the challenges of managing the US-backed ceasefire, as well as reconstructing the country from a war the World Bank estimated cost $8.5 billion in damages and economic loss. Aoun’s military background puts him in a good position, one expert said: “The single national institution that retains credibility and widespread popular endorsement is the Lebanese army.” The Biden administration wants Lebanon’s armed forces to deploy close to the Israeli border to create a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah, Al-Monitor reported, and US officials have stressed that a significant amount of US support will be needed to wrest control from Hezbollah.