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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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The World at a Glance
Updated 6:27pm EDT
1
Stocks fell on the US Fed chair’s pessimism about the economy after he announced interest rates would remain steady.
2Oil prices topped $110 per barrel, after Iran and Qatar accused Israel of attacking a vast natural gas field the Gulf countries share.
3China is close to tapping its vast commercial oil reserves as supply disruptions from the Iran conflict grow more acute.
4Moody’s Analytics forecast the probability of a US recession in the next year at 49%, amid a debate over the Iran war’s impact on the American economy.
5The Israeli military killed Iran’s intelligence minister, taking out the third senior Iranian figure within 24 hours.
6Computing’s prestigious Turing Award went to two men who created a way of keeping digital communication safe even in the age of quantum computers.
Stocks fall on Fed chair’s pessimism
“We had the tariff shock, we had the pandemic, and now we have an energy shock of some size and duration” amid war in Iran, Jerome Powell said at a news conference.
Jonathan Ernst/ReutersRepublicans grow more frustrated with Justice Department’s Fed probe
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., told Semafor that lawmakers won’t advance Trump’s pick for chair “until 292 days expires or the investigation does.”
Jonathan Ernst/ReutersPaul to oppose Mullin’s confirmation — but won’t block him
The two Republican senators sparred during Mullin’s hearing to become Homeland Security secretary
Nathan Howard/ReutersGabbard’s standing intact amid mixed signals on Iran
The director of national intelligence appeared on the Hill one day after the public resignation of a top aide over the war.
Kevin Lamarque/ReutersSaudi Arabia ramps up anti-corruption drive
Efforts to root out corruption under Mohammed bin Salman, once written off as a power grab, have picked up.
Faisal Al Nasser/ReutersPalantir CTO says US has ‘lost deterrence’
Shyam Sankar also argued that it’s in the “national interest” for AI companies to work with the Pentagon.
Kent Nishimura/Reuters Republicans descend into a familiar mode: Risky House-Senate infighting
The agenda items imperiled by the cross-Capitol squabble include national security and affordability priorities.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
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Politics
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
Ken Cedeno/ReutersJonathan Ernst/Reuters
FBI investigates intelligence aide who resigned over war
Inquiry focuses on alleged leaks.
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty ImagesHow the US economy will cope with the Iran war
Moody’s Analytics forecast the probability of a recession in the next year at 49%, driven largely by higher oil prices.
Ken Cedeno/ReutersStocks fall on Fed chair’s pessimism
“We had the tariff shock, we had the pandemic, and now we have an energy shock of some size and duration” amid war in Iran, Jerome Powell said at a news conference.
Jonathan Ernst/ReutersGabbard’s standing intact amid mixed signals on Iran
The director of national intelligence appeared on the Hill one day after the public resignation of a top aide over the war.
Republicans grow more frustrated with Justice Department’s Fed probe
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., told Semafor that lawmakers won’t advance Trump’s pick for chair “until 292 days expires or the investigation does.”
Paul to oppose Mullin’s confirmation — but won’t block him
The two Republican senators sparred during Mullin’s hearing to become Homeland Security secretary
Why AIPAC shouldn’t get too excited about its Illinois primary strategy
While AIPAC spent money to defend pro-Israel candidates and fend off the most anti-Israel candidates, Israel’s critics often helped out by fighting amongst themselves.
Big-spending Democratic PACs see mixed results in Illinois
Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton won the nomination for Senate, while progressive critics of Israel, AI, and crypto won nominations for two Chicago-area House seats.
Palantir CTO says US has ‘lost deterrence’
Shyam Sankar also argued that it’s in the “national interest” for AI companies to work with the Pentagon.
Republicans descend into a familiar mode: Risky House-Senate infighting
The agenda items imperiled by the cross-Capitol squabble include national security and affordability priorities.
White House details status of immigration enforcement talks
Still, Democrats say a deal to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is far off.
Business
Stringer/Reuters
Oil prices top $110 a barrel
Oil prices ticked up further after Iran and Qatar accused Israel of attacking a vast natural gas field the Gulf countries share.
Stringer/ReutersUS Fed expected to hold rates despite inflation fears
Policymakers must balance a soft labor market with intensifying concern that rising global energy costs will drive consumer-price growth.
China eyes Hong Kong IPO curbs
The pressure could dent Hong Kong’s IPO market, which had only recently gained momentum.
US diesel prices top $5 a gallon
US President Donald Trump faces increasing pressure to resolve the conflict.
A military-industrial-financial complex is rising in America
Wall Street and Silicon Valley are adding a third leg to the intertwining of government and the defense industry that Eisenhower warned about.
Technology
Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Association for Computing Machinery
Humans — not AI — are to blame for deadly Iran school strike, sources say
The US missile attack is fueling global debate over AI and the military.
Joey Pfeifer/SemaforTuring Award goes to inventors of ‘quantum cryptography’
Computing’s prestigious Turing Award went to two men who created a way of keeping digital communication safe even in the age of quantum computers.
Association for Computing MachineryWanted: Experts in human emotion
The rise of sophisticated AI has created a sub-industry of specialist data providers who impart specialist information to help train large language models.
Autonomous labs seek to solve information ‘overload’
Humans are struggling to keep up with the tens of thousands of new scientific research papers submitted each year, and one startup says we should quit while we’re behind.
We’re all living inside Jensen Huang’s ‘triangle’
In this industry, “if you aren’t running, you’re being eaten,” Huang said.
Palantir CTO says US has ‘lost deterrence’
Shyam Sankar also argued that it’s in the “national interest” for AI companies to work with the Pentagon.
Energy
Stringer/File Photo/ReutersStringer/Reuters 
Stringer/File Photo/Reuters
China could tap oil reserves as supply disruptions deepen
China is close to tapping its vast commercial oil reserves as supply disruptions from the Iran conflict grow more acute, an industry consultant said.
Stringer/File Photo/ReutersOil prices top $110 a barrel
Oil prices ticked up further after Iran and Qatar accused Israel of attacking a vast natural gas field the Gulf countries share.
Stringer/ReutersNations seek alternative oil transport routes
Experts say the crisis could reshape energy markets in the long-term.
Stringer/File Photo/ReutersGulfStringer/Reuters
Oil prices top $110 a barrel
Oil prices ticked up further after Iran and Qatar accused Israel of attacking a vast natural gas field the Gulf countries share.
Stringer/ReutersIsrael kills Iran intel chief
Esmail Khatib’s death came within 24 hours of Israeli strikes taking out Iran’s security chief and the head of its feared paramilitary force.
Abraham Accords will expand through defense cooperation
Spurred on by conflict with Iran, Israel and some Gulf countries are building a defense-tech corridor that could reshape the Middle East.
Kuwait detains 16 people accused of Hezbollah ties
The interior ministry made a splash by publicly displaying the suspects’ guns, bullets, and other seized contraband.
UAE seeks to shore up reputation as tax haven
The UAE’s Federal Tax Authority is considering relaxing rules so that expats can spend more time abroad without losing their tax status.
Africa
Peng Lijun/Xinhua via Getty Images
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu. Ton Molina/Getty Images.
Africa weighs Trump’s ‘commercial diplomacy’ versus sovereignty
Zambia is closely reviewing a multibillion-dollar deal that could grant the US access to key minerals in exchange for support and citizens’ health data.
Peng Lijun/Xinhua via Getty ImagesTinubu boosted by bank recapitalization, oil prices
Nigerian officials hope the upbeat message burnishes the president’s credentials as a reformer.
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu. Ton Molina/Getty Images.Guinea mulls bauxite export quotas to mitigate price slump
The West African country, the world’s top bauxite producer, has been hit by rising shipping costs too.
Africa’s rising spending on Chinese surveillance tech
More than $2 billion has been spent on facial recognition and car-tracking technologies in 11 African countries.
Chinese firm strikes $4.2B Ethiopia gas deal
The firm will supply natural gas to a planned fertilizer plant in Ethiopia.
Football federation overturns Senegal’s AFCON victory
The federation cited rules that punish a team that abandons an ongoing football match for more than 10 minutes.
Security
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Omar Sanadiki/Reuters
DVIDS/Handout via Reuters
Israel kills Iran intel chief
Esmail Khatib’s death came within 24 hours of Israeli strikes taking out Iran’s security chief and the head of its feared paramilitary force.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via ReutersIsrael kills powerful Iran security chief
Ali Larijani ran Iran’s national security council and was seen as the country’s de facto leader after the former ayatollah was assassinated.
Omar Sanadiki/ReutersIran’s asymmetric warfare challenges US
The US is confronting its limitations in dealing with Iran’s asymmetric warfare, analysts argued.
DVIDS/Handout via ReutersMedia
Gary Miller/FilmMagic
Newsom calls FCC chairman’s threats ‘sick’
The California governor argued people from all political perspectives should be concerned about federal regulators weighing in on news content.
Gary Miller/FilmMagicWhy (and how) everyone is cold-calling the president
Plus, what happened when Semafor’s Max Tani gave him a ring.
Oscars mask a Hollywood in crisis
As Hollywood celebrates the Oscars on Sunday, the glitz masks a deeper crisis for the entertainment industry: rising production costs.
AI is the latest gatekeeper between brands and buyers
Companies are now writing ad copy for bots, not people, and those bots are telling consumers what products to buy.
Hasan Piker on streaming all day, his relationship with Zohran Mamdani, and the lefty media machine
Since 2018, Hasan Piker has gone from streaming alone in his bedroom to becoming one of North America’s most influential leftist creators.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of BETA/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Upwork/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Robinhood/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
How Kyle Clark got BETA’s air taxis ready for takeoff
The electric aircraft company’s CEO has a ‘burn-the-boats’ approach to decision-making.
Courtesy of BETA/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforUpwork’s CEO on the AI agents that try to hire human workers
Hayden Brown sees the pairing of technology and human “orchestrators” redefining workforces.
Courtesy of Upwork/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforWhy Vlad Tenev thinks you’ll want Robinhood’s ‘James Bond’ credit card
A platinum-plated physical product advances the broker’s bid to become a financial “super app.”
Courtesy of Robinhood/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD