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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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The World at a Glance
Updated 6:32pm EDT
1
The European Central Bank raised interest rates, as inflation readings and energy disruptions darkened the global outlook.
2Houthi rebels captured a key port from Yemen’s Saudi-backed government, strengthening the Iranian proxy’s hold on one of the region’s two critical waterways.
3A joint operation between the US, UK, and Norway foiled a Russian operation to cut undersea cables near the Arctic’s Svalbard archipelago.
4Chinese AI startup Moonshot is reportedly exploring going public in Shanghai and Hong Kong, as more Chinese tech firms explore IPOs.
5Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala has taken a stake in China’s Luckin Coffee, adding to the growing economic ties between the two nations.
6Top AI pioneers Paul Christiano and Geoffrey Hinton backed an Anthropic researcher’s warning of potential human extinction.
California Dem faces election turbulence
California Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez faces increasing turbulence heading into his general election, according to new polling shared first with Semafor showing him statistically tied with Democrat Angela Gonzales-Torres.
NCAA chief: College sports bill means less ‘money on lawyers,’ more on athletics
Charlie Baker, the former Republican governor now overseeing college sports, talked to Semafor about the unique legislative moment he’s in.
Disagreements reemerge in bipartisan AI safety talks
Disagreements over how far to go on AI safety legislation portend a rocky road ahead for bipartisan Senate talks on a bill that remains the most likely vehicle for action this year.
Trump adviser warns time running out on crypto bill
Semafor sat down with Patrick Witt, executive director of Trump’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, as lawmakers prepare to consider the industry’s top legislative priority.
View / How do you price the end of the world?
A look at the possible risk factors for the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs now that fear about AI destroying humanity is mainstream.
Activist Oasis seeks board seats at Vail Resorts
The activist investor has a sizable position and is looking to shake up the ski operator’s management.
El-Sayed hits Rogers on healthcare during Republican convention
The ad will run statewide as part of a $2.3 million campaign running this week, a person familiar with the buy told Semafor.
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Politics
California Dem faces election turbulence
California Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez faces increasing turbulence heading into his general election, according to new polling shared first with Semafor showing him statistically tied with Democrat Angela Gonzales-Torres.
Carlin Stiehl/Reuters
NCAA chief: College sports bill means less ‘money on lawyers,’ more on athletics
Charlie Baker, the former Republican governor now overseeing college sports, talked to Semafor about the unique legislative moment he’s in.
Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters
Dems sharpen Fetterman criticism after RNC appearance
Pennsylvania Democrats, including potential 2028 Senate candidates, are ramping up their criticism of Sen. John Fetterman after he appeared by video at the Republican midterm convention this week.
Brian Snyder/Reuters
Disagreements reemerge in bipartisan AI safety talks
Disagreements over how far to go on AI safety legislation portend a rocky road ahead for bipartisan Senate talks on a bill that remains the most likely vehicle for action this year.
Republicans’ midterm promise is more populism, and more cash
Can Donald Trump’s party have its populist economic promises and big donors too? So far, it looks that way.
NATO allies foil Russian operation to cut undersea cables
A joint operation between the US, UK, and Norway thwarted a Russian operation to sabotage undersea cables with a “secret weapon” near the Arctic’s Svalbard archipelago.
El-Sayed hits Rogers on healthcare during Republican convention
The ad will run statewide as part of a $2.3 million campaign running this week, a person familiar with the buy told Semafor.
AI loses a Dallas debate
Frontier technology is dividing the right.
Trump adviser warns time running out on crypto bill
Semafor sat down with Patrick Witt, executive director of Trump’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, as lawmakers prepare to consider the industry’s top legislative priority.
Trump sees end to Iran war “immediately” after midterm elections
Top White House officials have reportedly told Trump that Iran would resist the US blockade through the rest of his term to Inauguration Day in Jan. 2029.
Trump pledges $5,000 voter payout if Republicans win the midterms
Trump’s unpopularity has weighed heavily on his party’s chances of retaining a majority.
Business
How the billionaire Bayeux Tapestry backer gets ‘impact per dollar’
WorldQuant’s Igor Tulchinsky finds inspiration in the ‘very, very old data set’ now on display in the British Museum.
The logic behind Scott Kirby’s long-odds bet on a United Airlines deal
The gambler-turned-CEO is making the case for consolidation while trying to build a brand that passengers love.
Activist Oasis seeks board seats at Vail Resorts
The activist investor has a sizable position and is looking to shake up the ski operator’s management.
ECB hikes interest rates amid inflation risks
A quarter-point increase in baseline borrowing costs across the bloc came as officials warned of “upside” inflation risks and oil prices shot above $100 a barrel.
How do you price the end of the world?
A look at the possible risk factors for the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs now that fear about AI destroying humanity is mainstream.
Technology
Chinese AI startup Moonshot reportedly eyes Hong Kong, Shanghai dual-listing
The dual-listing reflects both the lab’s need for cash as well as concerns over a congested IPO pipeline in Hong Kong.
Dado Ruvic/Reuters
How do you price the end of the world?
A look at the possible risk factors for the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs now that fear about AI destroying humanity is mainstream.
Courtesy of Anthropic
Top AI pioneers reaffirm Anthropic researcher’s human extinction warning
Author Paul Christiano said he now sees “meaningful risk” of “catastrophic and irreversible loss of control in the very near term.”
Anthropic skirts UK safety review amid rising AI transparency concerns
Anthropic declined to submit its latest model for testing to a top British AI safety institute.
AI researcher Andrew Tulloch is leaving Meta
Tulloch has been delaying his departure until the company successfully launched its new family of open source AI models and AI assistant, Muse.
Why we can’t rely on governments to handle AI safety
The episode goes to show that “cyber vulnerabilities don’t map neatly onto state borders,” US-China tech expert Samm Sacks told Semafor.
Energy
Hydrogen investment projected to hit a bureaucratic cap on growth
Global investment in low-carbon hydrogen will reach a new high this year.
Simon Johnson/Reuters
Global coal consumption to reach new record
China remains by far the world’s coal heavyweight: Its power sector alone consumes one-third of the world’s coal.
Tingshu Wang/File Photo/Reuters
Ukraine is going into winter with a gas surplus, despite war
Ukraine is also angling to increase exports to Europe this winter, the CEO of the country’s top private energy company said.
Lisi Niesner/Reuters
Gulf
Houthi rebels capture key Red Sea port in Yemen
Houthi rebels captured a key port on Thursday from Yemen’s Saudi Arabia-backed government, strengthening the Iranian proxy’s hold on one of the region’s two critical waterways.
Khaled Abdullah/Reuters
Authorities in Kuwait are flattening vehicles seized from crime
The practice, which destroys tankers that could be used to ferry valuable crude, follows Qatar, which began crushing cars seized through reckless driving two years ago.
Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala takes stake in China’s Luckin coffee with $1B deal
Private equity firm Centurium Capital has contributed to the $1 billion investment alongside Mudabadala’s minority stake into China’s Luckin Coffee.
Gulf corporate profits in second quarter show growing divide between economies
Listed companies in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi are growing quickly, benefiting from higher oil prices and their ability to keep energy exports flowing.
Netanyahu denies he ignored UAE’s warning ahead of Oct. 7 attacks
The Israeli prime minister threatened to sue Haaretz over its report that he ignored the UAE president’s explicit warning about Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks.
China
Chinese AI startup Moonshot reportedly eyes Hong Kong, Shanghai dual-listing
The dual-listing reflects both the lab’s need for cash as well as concerns over a congested IPO pipeline in Hong Kong.
Dado Ruvic/Reuters
EU unveils new ‘Made in Europe’ guidelines to counter China
Some worried the guidelines’ lack of binding quotas would undermine their efficacy.
Flavio Lo Scalzo/Reuters
US ramps up China rhetoric ahead of upcoming meeting
The US Treasury secretary warned that “nothing else would matter” if China were to win the AI race.
Sam Wolfe/File Photo/Reuters
Africa
South Africa’s GDP shrank in Q2 2026
The impact of the Iran war ended an 18-month period of growth in Africa’s biggest economy.
Esa Alexander/Reuters
Dangote faces Kenya refinery hurdles
It is unclear where the planned refinery in Lamu, which Africa’s richest man aims to complete by 2030, will secure its feedstock from.
Sodiq Adelakun/Reuters
Infrastructure investor Africa50 targets $20B portfolio
The Casablanca-based fund has backed more than 30 projects in 32 countries across multiple sectors.
Nigeria’s trade surplus doubles to $9.5B
The shift was driven by a fall in fuel imports and a rise in the exports of crude oil and raw materials.
Senegal seeks more time to pay off debt
Senegal’s prime minister said the country hopes to extend the maturity of its borrowing.
Kenya’s foreign-trader crackdown exposes an economic fault line
Kenya’s President Ruto is drawing a sharper distinction between the foreigners he says the economy needs and those he says are taking opportunities from Kenyans
Security
Experts warn of new terrorism threats from AI, drones
25 years after the Sept. 11 attacks, Western societies face resurgent threats from advanced technologies, experts said
Kim Hong-ji/Reuters
Trump sees end to Iran war “immediately” after midterm elections
Top White House officials have reportedly told Trump that Iran would resist the US blockade through the rest of his term to Inauguration Day in Jan. 2029.
US Central Command/Handout via Reuters.
Anthropic skirts UK safety review amid rising AI transparency concerns
Anthropic declined to submit its latest model for testing to a top British AI safety institute.
Priyanshu Singh/Reuters
Media
Fertile ground
Flagship’s lead writer Tom Chivers says goodbye after four years.
Bhawika Chhabra/Reuters
Crooked Media’s nonprofit launches new political creator drive
The nonprofit arm of Pod Save America’s audio empire is hoping to lure younger voters back to the Democratic Party.
YouTube cracks down on ‘ghost creators’
The enforcement action targeted accounts named in Semafor’s report earlier this week.
Paid actors, AI writing: How a new kind of video business cashed in on America’s divided politics
‘Ghost creators’ are reaching millions of viewers with nearly identical, sensationalized videos that take aim at Democrats.
New Leon Black book picks fight with the Times
Bill Cohan’s new biography is aimed, in part, at rebutting The New York Times’ coverage of Black and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
CEO Signal
How the billionaire Bayeux Tapestry backer gets ‘impact per dollar’
WorldQuant’s Igor Tulchinsky finds inspiration in the ‘very, very old data set’ now on display in the British Museum.
The logic behind Scott Kirby’s long-odds bet on a United Airlines deal
The gambler-turned-CEO is making the case for consolidation while trying to build a brand that passengers love.
How a ‘China-for-China’ strategy rebooted Logitech
CEO Hanneke Faber says competing in China is critical to winning in the rest of the world.
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