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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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View / The crisis will arrive slowly, then all at once
View / Wall Street bosses stick by the Gulf despite war
The World at a Glance
Updated 8:07am EDT
1
Iranian strikes hit a Kuwaiti desalination plant, while Donald Trump threatened Iranian water infrastructure, as targets expand beyond military sites.
2Eurozone inflation hit 2.5% in March, its highest level since January 2025, as experts warned of rising prices hitting consumers.
3The US’ Latin American allies are reluctant to back his war in Iran, which is squeezing their economies.
4Rising fuel prices sparked by the Mideast conflict have boosted global EV interest, buoying the prospects of Chinese behemoth BYD.
5Emmanuel Macron kicked off his East Asia tour as Western politicians sought to boost alliances to counter Chinese dominance.
6Beijing and Nairobi will restart a stalled railway project seen as a symbol of risky overreliance on Chinese financing.
Are tiny homes the cure for America’s housing woes?
“We love it as an asset class,” says the CEO of the prefab homebuilder that spun out of Airbnb.
Bessent’s back on the campaign trail
Republicans have an unlikely asset in the treasury secretary ahead of the midterms.
Abdul Saboor/ReutersBenefit Street Partners looks for Gulf private credit deals
Undeterred by the Iran war, Franklin Templeton’s credit arm looks to expand in the Gulf.
David Manlowe. Courtesy of the Future Investment Initiative.Hackers hit Patel email while cyber defenses weakened by shutdown
CISA, housed within DHS and responsible for defending critical infrastructure, has been hamstrung by the ongoing shutdown.
Leah Millis/File Photo/ReutersLabor rule opens door to private-market, digital assets in retirement plans
The rule would make it harder to sue employers who choose to add private-market, digital, and other alternative assets to their retirement plans.
Daniel Becerril/ReutersAxel Springer’s Döpfner courts UK conservative elites
The German mogul is courting regulators and the country’s influential conservative political figures as he attempts to get his bid to buy the Telegraph approved.
Paul Morigi/Getty Images for SemaforMore worry a ‘great deal’ about health costs than economy, poll finds
Health care polled as Americans’ top issue for the first time since 2020.
Arin Yoon/ReutersAD
Politics
Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAbdul Saboor/Reuters Arin Yoon/Reuters
A Texas plastic surgeon was Patient Zero for the right’s Charlie Kirk conspiracy fever
Keith Rose, a doctor and conservative commentator, made dire warnings soon after Kirk’s assassination.
Joey Pfeifer/SemaforBessent’s back on the campaign trail
Republicans have an unlikely asset in the treasury secretary ahead of the midterms.
Abdul Saboor/ReutersMore worry a ‘great deal’ about health costs than economy, poll finds
Health care polled as Americans’ top issue for the first time since 2020.
Arin Yoon/ReutersUS bill aims to strengthen Taiwan ties
A bipartisan group of senators wants to direct the US government to work with Taiwan on bolstering the island’s domestic drone industry
Hackers hit Patel email while cyber defenses weakened by shutdown
CISA, housed within DHS and responsible for defending critical infrastructure, has been hamstrung by the ongoing shutdown.
Labor rule opens door to private-market, digital assets in retirement plans
The rule would make it harder to sue employers who choose to add private-market, digital, and other alternative assets to their retirement plans.
Trump-linked investor backs new LNG project in Alaska
An oil and gas exec linked to the Trump family plans to use equipment from a sanctioned Russian gas project to open a major new export terminal in Alaska.
Midsize banks urge action on deposit insurance
Smaller financial institutions that supported an ambitious expansion of deposit insurance are still urging lawmakers to advance a new, pared-back version.
Can Treasury keep playing the short game and winning?
Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent moves help explain something broader about the way this administration operates.
US, China escalate trade standoff ahead of visit
China launched two probes into US trade practices, as both sides aim to build leverage before Donald Trump’s trip to Beijing in May.
Iran conflict divides Republicans at CPAC
A gathering of prominent American conservatives last week exposed deep divisions within the Republican Party over the Iran war.
Business
Daniel Cole/Reuters
Musk lawsuits reassigned on judge bias allegations
Three lawsuits involving Elon Musk will be reassigned after the presiding judge appeared to endorse a LinkedIn post critical of the billionaire.
Daniel Cole/ReutersTrump administration eyes 401(k) rule change for private credit fix
The Trump administration is offering private credit a way out of its problems.
The crisis will arrive slowly, then all at once
World leaders are doomscrolling. Why aren’t investors?
Are tiny homes the cure for America’s housing woes?
“We love it as an asset class,” says the CEO of the prefab homebuilder that spun out of Airbnb.
Bonds rise as traders fear war will trigger economic slowdown
Government bonds in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan rose Monday as concerns ballooned about an economic slowdown driven by the war in the Middle East.
Technology
Wikipedia
Antranik Tavitian/Reuters
Wikipedia bans use of AI to ‘generate or rewrite’ articles
The policy replaced more broad language saying that AI should not be used to generate articles “from scratch.”
WikipediaEli Lilly leans into AI drug discovery with new licensing deal
US pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly inked a $2.75 billion deal with a Hong Kong-listed biotech firm to create new medicines using AI.
Antranik Tavitian/ReutersPentagon AI architect on the future of warfare
Semafor spoke with Drew Cukor, who dragged a reluctant defense establishment into the AI age.
Google hedges its quantum bets
This week, Google announced a major investment in what’s known as the “neutral atom,” otherwise known less scientifically as just a regular old atom.
How I jailbroke an OpenClaw PR agent
It’s easy to imagine AI agents organizing events, but the tech isn’t there yet — even with human oversight.
Former Tesla president’s tips on moving fast in the age of AI
Jon McNeill’s new book, “The Algorithm, “is the most important business book of the year.
Energy
Alexander Manzyuk/Reuters
Courtesy TotalEnergies
Willy Kurniawan/File Photo/Reuters
Fears of global aluminum shortages intensify
The Middle East accounts for 9% of the world’s production of aluminum.
Alexander Manzyuk/ReutersA Gulf Coast LNG plant faces uncertain waters
Walking through a LNG terminal is a good way to get a sense of how challenging it will be for the US to extract much benefit from energy supply disruption.
Courtesy TotalEnergiesRising fuel prices boost EV interest
Chinese behemoth BYD is cashing in on the boom.
Willy Kurniawan/File Photo/ReutersGulf
Carlo Allegri/File Photo
Wall Street bosses stick by the Gulf despite war
Foreign firms know that Gulf leaders have long memories and will reward those who stand by them.
Carlo Allegri/File PhotoGulf leaders scramble for Hormuz work-around
Saudi Arabia and the UAE invested years ago in pipelines that bypass the waterway, but Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar remained trapped by geography.
Ratings agencies warn of impact of Iran war
Fitch said it could downgrade Qatar’s rating, citing the risk of further damage to the country’s gas facilities.
In private, Gulf leaders push for Iran escalation
But in public, Gulf leaders are callling for restraint.
Benefit Street Partners looks for Gulf private credit deals
Undeterred by the Iran war, Franklin Templeton’s credit arm looks to expand in the Gulf.
Africa
Daniel Beloymou Olomo/AFP via Getty Images
Julien de Rosa/AFP via Getty Images
Promised sickle cell cure could be on horizon for Africans
While treatment options for the inherited blood disease have long been available, scientists now believe that a cure for sickle cell may lie in gene-editing.
Daniel Beloymou Olomo/AFP via Getty ImagesTop CAF official resigns amid AFCON backlash
The resignation came shortly after the controversial ruling by African football’s governing body that stripped Senegal of its African Cup of Nations title.
Julien de Rosa/AFP via Getty ImagesSun King pledges to $150M to Ethiopia electrification
The Kenya-based firm, which already operates in 14 African countries, is the world’s largest off-grid solar company.
South Africa opts for low-profile new Washington envoy
Thabo Thage’s appointment as the de facto head of mission comes at a time of heightened diplomatic tension between the countries.
US-China rivalry in DR Congo escalates as Beijing signs new deal
Kinshasa and Beijing inked a new agreement covering geological data sharing, investment protections, and local processing.
Africa’s energy giants eye long-term gains on Iran war disruption
Angola, Mozambique, and Nigeria are among nations increasingly viewed by European and Asian buyers as lower-risk alternatives to disrupted supplies.
Security
Kharg Island. Planet Labs PBC/Handout via Reuters
Adnan Abidi/Reuters
US Navy/Handout via Reuters
US, Iran expand targets to water infrastructure
Gulf nations are highly reliant on desalination for fresh water, and damage to the region’s hundreds of plants could render its major cities unlivable.
Kharg Island. Planet Labs PBC/Handout via ReutersThree UN peacekeepers killed in Lebanon as Israel-Hezbollah war intensifies
More than a million people in Lebanon have been displaced and some 1,200 killed since hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah reignited.
Adnan Abidi/ReutersIsrael, US face shortages in Iran war
Israel’s opposition leader warned the military was “stretched to the limit and beyond,” while US arsenals have been strained by other conflicts.
US Navy/Handout via ReutersMediaPaul Morigi/Getty Images for Semafor
Axel Springer’s Döpfner courts UK conservative elites
The German mogul is courting regulators and the country’s influential conservative political figures as he attempts to get his bid to buy the Telegraph approved.
Paul Morigi/Getty Images for SemaforSubstack rival Beehiiv makes a push into podcasting
Beehiiv has privately been reaching out to independent podcasters on Substack and other platforms.
CBS News expands its investigative team
The network is expanding its investigative journalism efforts as editor-in-chief Bari Weiss continues to reshape it.
Politico taps a new top editor
Jonathan Greenberger garnered internal support from outgoing editor John Harris and CEO Goli Sheikholeslami.
The oldest job in journalism: New York Post ‘runners’ defy AI
In an age of shrinking newsroom budgets, mass layoffs, and AI, sending human beings to physical locations is something of a luxury.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of LSEG/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Schneider Electric/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of IonQ/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
LSEG’s David Schwimmer on activists, AI, and a global market test
The exchange operator is juggling investor expectations with the need to reshape its business model.
Courtesy of LSEG/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforSchneider Electric’s Olivier Blum on moving at the pace of Nvidia
Remaking an old industrial giant to meet new energy demands started with defining its mission.
Courtesy of Schneider Electric/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforWhy CEOs should care about the quantum ‘space race’
IonQ’s Niccolo de Masi says getting quantum security right is ‘a matter of survivability.’
Courtesy of IonQ/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor AD