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View / Markets are defying gravity — for now
View / The Strait of Hormuz closure is a crisis — and a wake-up call
The World at a Glance
Updated 3:29pm EDT
1
US and Iranian negotiators could meet again for peace talks this week, as the ceasefire expiry date looms.
2Xi Jinping warned of global ‘disarray’ over the Iran war, with Chinese exports cooling since the conflict’s start.
3The effects of the Iran war are increasingly being seen in the real economy, not just the stock market.
4Cuba’s president said he was open to US oil investment, but insisted again he would not step down.
5Nigeria will seek IMF and World Bank support, as the Iran war threatens to unfurl recent economic gains.
6Kyiv said nearly all Russian casualties in March were inflicted by drones, which have outpaced artillery as the leading killer.
Philanthropist John Arnold is worried about prediction markets
America’s youngest billionaire-turned-philanthropist is making online betting his next big issue.
How China is winning the global energy war
New China-built wind farms are a lifeline for one of the countries most vulnerable to soaring natural gas prices.
Tim McDonnell/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforBessent: US should ‘wait and see’ before lowering interest rates
The Fed is “doing the right thing by sitting and watching” the war in Iran, the Treasury secretary said at Semafor World Economy.
Kris Tripplaar/Getty Images for SemaforRepublicans enter spring legislative sprint
The House and Senate are speeding toward action on the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement funding and on expiring surveillance powers.
Nathan Howard/Reuters Embattled Reps. Swalwell, Gonzales quit the House
This won’t be the end of the House’s disciplinary woes.
Annabelle Gordon and Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Global economy is in a ‘Road Runner moment,’ Lazard CEO says
Like COVID and tariffs, supply shocks from the Middle East conflict will take “a long time to feed through into prices,” Lazard CEO Peter Orszag said at Semafor World Economy.
Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for SemaforTotalEnergies CEO warns of ‘serious supply issues’ if Iran war continues
TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné said at Semafor World Economy that any solution over the Iran conflict “must absolutely preserve” the Strait of Hormuz opening.
Patrick Pouyanné (L) and Semafor’s Tim McDonnell. Tasos Katopodis/Getty for Semafor
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Politics
Ken Cedeno/ReutersNathan Howard/Reuters Annabelle Gordon and Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
How Virginia redistricting got harder than Democrats wanted
Gov. Abigail Spanberger is pushing for a referendum on Trump’s nationwide pro-Republican remaps. Her opponents want a referendum on her.
Ken Cedeno/ReutersRepublicans enter spring legislative sprint
The House and Senate are speeding toward action on the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement funding and on expiring surveillance powers.
Nathan Howard/Reuters Embattled Reps. Swalwell, Gonzales quit the House
This won’t be the end of the House’s disciplinary woes.
Annabelle Gordon and Jonathan Ernst/Reuters US begins Strait of Hormuz blockade
The US began its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, as Washington and Tehran threatened further escalation amid a shaky ceasefire.
Trump escalates attacks on Pope Leo over war criticism
US President Donald Trump refused to back down from his row with Pope Leo XIV, who has spoken out against the war in Iran.
US pilot detained in Guinea decries ‘useless’ Trump administration
The US government has taken a quiet approach to resolving the case of two charter plane operators held in West Africa
Republican immigration bill starts shaping up
Republicans want to give President Donald Trump three years of funding for immigration enforcement.
Asking the big question of the new world economy
Are you better off than you were four years ago? The predictive power of that question has flipped.
What’s next for Swalwell in the House
The California congressman faces a vote to expel him from the House this week over sexual assault allegations.
Trump threatens China over Iran
US President Donald Trump on Sunday threatened China with “staggering” 50% tariffs if it provides military assistance to Iran, raising the specter of further friction between the world’s two largest economies.
Donald Trump says the US will ‘blockade’ Hormuz
Donald Trump said the US would “blockade” the Strait of Hormuz after US and Iranian negotiators failed to reach a deal during marathon talks in Pakistan.
Business
Ken Griffin. Kris Tripplaar/Semafor
Markets are defying gravity — for now
Citadel CEO Ken Griffin warned of a full-on recession if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for more than six months.
Ken Griffin. Kris Tripplaar/SemaforPhilanthropist John Arnold is worried about prediction markets
America’s youngest billionaire-turned-philanthropist is making online betting his next big issue.
How Ivan Espinosa got Nissan to face reality
Nissan’s vehicle sales and share price have plummeted. Espinosa has a mandate to turn them around.
One hedge fund is pitching a fix to SpaceX’s IPO deluge: Shorten employee lockup periods
An IPO structure proposed by Lykos Global Management would trickle employee shares, then those held by insiders, into the market based on price and volume thresholds.
How old records and new AI technology brought growth back to Ancestry
CEO Howard Hochhauser says the site had stopped listening to its customers.
Technology
Igor Ivanko/Pool via Reuters
Rick Wilking/Reuters
Russia’s spy agency tightens control of internet, sparking elite pushback
Moscow has blocked Telegram, looked to crack down on VPN use, and is pushing a state-linked messaging app.
Igor Ivanko/Pool via ReutersWhy your employees aren’t using AI
Nearly half of non-AI users have ethical objections to it, Gallup found.
Rick Wilking/ReutersAltman links attack to ‘great anxiety’ over AI
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman linked an attack on his home to a moment of “great anxiety” around AI.
Hospitals consider replacing some radiologists with AI
Radiology is ground zero for arguments over AI’s employment impacts.
Amazon takes a jab at Nvidia over chips shift
It’s a signal that Nvidia is in direct competition with the frontier AI labs it already supplies.
VCs step in to fund university upstarts
VC increased their spending in university spinoffs, and in later rounds of US companies spun out from academia, PitchBook reported.
Energy
Johannes P. Christo/Reuters
Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Reuters 
Tasos Katopodis/Getty for Semafor
World Bank takes on energy inflation at spring meetings
Energy security risks sparked by the Iran war are top of the agenda at the World Bank and IMF spring meetings in Washington this week.
Johannes P. Christo/ReutersEnergy CEOs are changing their risk calculus
Energy markets are suffering a series of chokepoints, from trade routes under threat of attack, to maxed-out electric grids and China’s stranglehold on critical minerals.
Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Reuters Energy executives warn of Iran war’s lasting impacts
Top energy and finance executives, speaking at Semafor World Economy, warned of long-term damage the Iran war could inflict on global commodities markets.
Tasos Katopodis/Getty for SemaforGulf
Dado Ruvic/Reuters
Controlling Hormuz seemed improbable. Turns out, it’s profitable
Gulf officials long thought Iran wouldn’t close the Strait because it would be self-defeating.
Dado Ruvic/ReutersData centers under fire test Gulf sovereign AI ambitions
Deep pockets and conviction will help the region in its push to become a global AI compute hub, despite the war.
Gulf looks to diversify its security alliances
Iran’s attacks showed what hundreds of billions of defense spending can buy, and what it can’t.
Gulf oil producers can no longer rely on Hormuz
A ceasefire may have calmed markets, but Gulf exporters are concluding they need to bypass the Strait.
War or peace, Gulf wealth funds keep investing
The region’s heavy hitters had a bumper quarter. Going forward, however, the picture is murkier.
Africa
Mike Hutchings/Reuters
Kacper Pempel/Illustration/Reuters
Rising oil prices weaken South Africa’s rand
The currency was nearly 1% down from its close on Friday in the latest fallout of the Middle East war.
Mike Hutchings/ReutersSouth Africa, Nigeria enter cybercrime global ranking
Global cybercrime losses surged to a record $20.8 billion in 2025.
Kacper Pempel/Illustration/ReutersHeineken sells DR Congo unit in Bralima
The exit marks the end of more than a century of operations by the Dutch brewer in the country.
African startup funding surges to $705M in first quarter
Startup funding increased 26.5% on the same period last year, according to new analysis.
Airbnb faces familiar battle in Cape Town
Hotel-managed or listed units on short-term rental platforms show how deeply tourism has penetrated the city center’s housing market.
A South African artist is changing the way viewers understand Picasso’s Guernica
Dumile Feni’s artwork is on display directly opposite Pablo Picasso’s famous anti-war painting.
Security
Henry Romero/Reuters
Ronen Zvulun/Reuters
HMS Prince of Wales. UK MOD Crown/May Luke/Handout via Reuters.
Murders drop in Mexico, minting a new political star
The country’s security minister, Omar García Harfuch, has become one of Mexico’s most popular politicians.
Henry Romero/ReutersIsrael’s Netanyahu says Iran ceasefire is not ‘end of the war’
Israel believes its war aims are incomplete, potentially setting the stage for further hostilities amid a shaky truce with Iran.
Ronen Zvulun/ReutersUK Navy deploys anti-drone weapons amid global scramble
The DragonFire system can target 400 mph drones and comes five years ahead of schedule.
HMS Prince of Wales. UK MOD Crown/May Luke/Handout via Reuters.Media
AFP via Getty Images
Gulf media crackdown sanitizes images of the war
Some international wires have halted conflict photography in the UAE since the arrest of photojournalists there.
AFP via Getty ImagesHow Bluesky earned its reputation — and why it could be the way of the future
Bluesky COO Rose Wang on how her company got to 40 million users.
Democrats pressure Pentagon over new media restrictions
Democratic lawmakers are pressing the Pentagon and leaders at Stars and Stripes to share whether the department is censoring stories at the historic military newspaper.
Maryland’s biggest newspaper is going after the governor’s 2028 campaign
The owner of Maryland’s biggest paper and TV stations is keeping close tabs on his outlet’s investigation of Gov. Wes Moore.
Joanna Stern on how AI told her to quit The Wall Street Journal
“It felt like the one big decision where I actually did trust AI,” she told Semafor’s “Mixed Signals” podcast.
CEO Signal
Issei Kato/Reuters 
Ancestry/YouTube
Richard Bord/Getty Images for Cannes Lions
How Ivan Espinosa got Nissan to face reality
Nissan’s vehicle sales and share price have plummeted. Espinosa has a mandate to turn them around.
Issei Kato/Reuters How old records and new AI technology brought growth back to Ancestry
CEO Howard Hochhauser says the site had stopped listening to its customers.
Ancestry/YouTubeRichard Edelman on trust, ‘Succession,’ and how to advise a CEO
The C-suite adviser says clients should spend more time hearing their critics.
Richard Bord/Getty Images for Cannes LionsAD