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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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The World at a Glance
Updated 8:17am EDT
1
Oil shot back above $100 a barrel after Donald Trump threatened to blockade some maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
2Donald Trump said the US would ‘blockade’ the Strait of Hormuz after the US and Iran failed to reach a deal during talks in Pakistan.
3China’s EV exports jumped by 124% in Q1, with a further windfall expected as oil prices remain high.
4Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was defeated in national elections, a stunning loss after 16 years in power.
5US wholesale prices are projected to rise, suggesting further pain for consumers down the line.
6AI is raising the risk of bioterrorism, a leading scientist warned, after GPT-5 ran a series of biological experiments.
Republican immigration bill starts shaping up
Republicans want to give President Donald Trump three years of funding for immigration enforcement.
Nathan Howard/Reuters Gulf media crackdown sanitizes images of the war
Some international wires have halted conflict photography in the UAE since the arrest of photojournalists there.
AFP via Getty ImagesUS pilot detained in Guinea decries ‘useless’ Trump administration
The US government has taken a quiet approach to resolving the case of two charter plane operators held in West Africa
Souleymane Camar/ReutersGeorges Elhedery on HSBC’s big bets on the Gulf and Asia
HSBC is planning to stay the course amid global turmoil.
Tyrone Siu/ReutersNavy takes nuclear-powered sub offline after $800 million cost run-up
Navy Secretary John Phelan was candid about his decision in an interview with Semafor: “We screwed up.”
Jessica Koscielniak/ReutersWarsh’s Fed hearing slips past next week
The committee would have had to notice the hearing by midnight Thursday.
Kevin Warsh at Semafor’s World Economy Summit. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for SemaforLawmakers await Pentagon’s mystery funding request
Congressional Republicans are watching to see whether the ceasefire with Iran is real.
Nathan Howard/Reuters 
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PoliticsSouleymane Camar/Reuters Nathan Howard/Reuters 
Joe McNally/Getty Images
US pilot detained in Guinea decries ‘useless’ Trump administration
The US government has taken a quiet approach to resolving the case of two charter plane operators held in West Africa
Souleymane Camar/ReutersRepublican immigration bill starts shaping up
Republicans want to give President Donald Trump three years of funding for immigration enforcement.
Nathan Howard/Reuters Asking the big question of the new world economy
Are you better off than you were four years ago? The predictive power of that question has flipped.
Joe McNally/Getty ImagesWhat’s next for Swalwell in the House
The California congressman faces a vote to expel him from the House this week over sexual assault allegations.
Trump threatens China over Iran
US President Donald Trump on Sunday threatened China with “staggering” 50% tariffs if it provides military assistance to Iran, raising the specter of further friction between the world’s two largest economies.
Donald Trump says the US will ‘blockade’ Hormuz
Donald Trump said the US would “blockade” the Strait of Hormuz after US and Iranian negotiators failed to reach a deal during marathon talks in Pakistan.
First look at war-related inflation sparks political jostling
The White House sought to focus on findings that specific goods got less expensive, while emboldened Democrats decried energy price spikes.
Navy takes nuclear-powered sub offline after $800 million cost run-up
Navy Secretary John Phelan was candid about his decision in an interview with Semafor: “We screwed up.”
Warsh’s Fed hearing slips past next week
The committee would have had to notice the hearing by midnight Thursday.
Moore takes on the Sun’s ‘MAGA billionaire’ and more
The Maryland governor talked to Semafor on the sidelines of Rev. Al Sharpton’s National Action Network conference.
Debatable: AI titans influencing regulation
Some are warning about AI companies engaging with US lawmakers as they map out potential regulations for the industry.
Business
Ancestry/YouTube
How old records and new AI technology brought growth back to Ancestry
CEO Howard Hochhauser says the site had stopped listening to its customers.
Ancestry/YouTubeRichard Edelman on trust, ‘Succession,’ and how to advise a CEO
The C-suite adviser says clients should spend more time hearing their critics.
More than 500 global CEOs, policymakers, and cabinet secretaries gather at Semafor World Economy in Washington
Kicking off Monday, power players from around the world descend on DC to confront a global economy rattled by wars, inflation, and the artificial intelligence boom.
US-Iran impasse to stem relief rally
The collapse of talks between the US and Iran is poised to push energy prices back up and weigh on stocks globally.
US inflation jumps, though long-term war impact yet to be seen
“Core” inflation, which removes volatile food and energy prices, only increased modestly.
Technology
Rick Wilking/Reuters
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
Why your employees aren’t using AI
Nearly half of non-AI users have ethical objections to it, Gallup found.
Rick Wilking/ReutersAltman links attack to ‘great anxiety’ over AI
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman linked an attack on his home to a moment of “great anxiety” around AI.
Jonathan Ernst/ReutersHospitals consider replacing some radiologists with AI
Radiology is ground zero for arguments over AI’s employment impacts.
Amazon takes a jab at Nvidia over chips shift
It’s a signal that Nvidia is in direct competition with the frontier AI labs it already supplies.
VCs step in to fund university upstarts
VC increased their spending in university spinoffs, and in later rounds of US companies spun out from academia, PitchBook reported.
Anthropic is gaining on OpenAI’s revenue, but hasn’t yet eclipsed it
The companies report revenue differently when they sell their tokens through cloud partners like AWS, Google and Microsoft.
Energy
Eli Hartman/File Photo/Reuters
Simon Johnson/Reuters
Fayaz Aziz/Reuters
Oil prices remain high despite Iran ceasefire
Prices are still hovering just below $100 per barrel, but there’s a long road ahead even if the war concludes.
Eli Hartman/File Photo/ReutersIran war strengthens case for green hydrogen
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has boosted interest in green hydrogen, as fossil fuel prices soar.
Simon Johnson/ReutersParis Agreement target off the table, report says
Rising electricity demand and strong oil markets in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East are making it harder for emissions to decrease.
Fayaz Aziz/ReutersGulf
Dado Ruvic/Reuters
Controlling Hormuz seemed improbable. Turns out, it’s profitable
Gulf officials long thought Iran wouldn’t close the Strait because it would be self-defeating.
Dado Ruvic/ReutersData centers under fire test Gulf sovereign AI ambitions
Deep pockets and conviction will help the region in its push to become a global AI compute hub, despite the war.
Gulf looks to diversify its security alliances
Iran’s attacks showed what hundreds of billions of defense spending can buy, and what it can’t.
Gulf oil producers can no longer rely on Hormuz
A ceasefire may have calmed markets, but Gulf exporters are concluding they need to bypass the Strait.
War or peace, Gulf wealth funds keep investing
The region’s heavy hitters had a bumper quarter. Going forward, however, the picture is murkier.
Africa
Mike Hutchings/Reuters
Kacper Pempel/Illustration/Reuters
Rising oil prices weaken South Africa’s rand
The currency was nearly 1% down from its close on Friday in the latest fallout of the Middle East war.
Mike Hutchings/ReutersSouth Africa, Nigeria enter cybercrime global ranking
Global cybercrime losses surged to a record $20.8 billion in 2025.
Kacper Pempel/Illustration/ReutersHeineken sells DR Congo unit in Bralima
The exit marks the end of more than a century of operations by the Dutch brewer in the country.
African startup funding surges to $705M in first quarter
Startup funding increased 26.5% on the same period last year, according to new analysis.
Airbnb faces familiar battle in Cape Town
Hotel-managed or listed units on short-term rental platforms show how deeply tourism has penetrated the city center’s housing market.
A South African artist is changing the way viewers understand Picasso’s Guernica
Dumile Feni’s artwork is on display directly opposite Pablo Picasso’s famous anti-war painting.
Security
Ronen Zvulun/Reuters
HMS Prince of Wales. UK MOD Crown/May Luke/Handout via Reuters.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters
Israel’s Netanyahu says Iran ceasefire is not ‘end of the war’
Israel believes its war aims are incomplete, potentially setting the stage for further hostilities amid a shaky truce with Iran.
Ronen Zvulun/ReutersUK Navy deploys anti-drone weapons amid global scramble
The DragonFire system can target 400 mph drones and comes five years ahead of schedule.
HMS Prince of Wales. UK MOD Crown/May Luke/Handout via Reuters.US targets pillars of Iran economy
Widespread attacks on Tuesday hit Iran’s railroads, bridges, and its energy hub.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA via ReutersMediaAFP via Getty Images
Gulf media crackdown sanitizes images of the war
Some international wires have halted conflict photography in the UAE since the arrest of photojournalists there.
AFP via Getty ImagesHow Bluesky earned its reputation — and why it could be the way of the future
Bluesky COO Rose Wang on how her company got to 40 million users.
Democrats pressure Pentagon over new media restrictions
Democratic lawmakers are pressing the Pentagon and leaders at Stars and Stripes to share whether the department is censoring stories at the historic military newspaper.
Maryland’s biggest newspaper is going after the governor’s 2028 campaign
The owner of Maryland’s biggest paper and TV stations is keeping close tabs on his outlet’s investigation of Gov. Wes Moore.
Joanna Stern on how AI told her to quit The Wall Street Journal
“It felt like the one big decision where I actually did trust AI,” she told Semafor’s “Mixed Signals” podcast.
CEO SignalAncestry/YouTube 
Richard Bord/Getty Images for Cannes Lions
Courtesy of Prologis
How old records and new AI technology brought growth back to Ancestry
CEO Howard Hochhauser says the site had stopped listening to its customers.
Ancestry/YouTubeRichard Edelman on trust, ‘Succession,’ and how to advise a CEO
The C-suite adviser says clients should spend more time hearing their critics.
Richard Bord/Getty Images for Cannes LionsInside the five-year succession plan at a $130B warehouse giant
Prologis’ Dan Letter says a long period of “letting the leash out” prepared him to be CEO.
Courtesy of Prologis AD