Gulf

1. Aramco’s $85B payout
2. OPEC+ phases out cuts
3. ADNOC’s chemical push
4. Arab leaders’ Gaza plan
5. Obesity epidemic
6. Israelis invest in Dubai

It’s hard to believe, but it’s been cooler in Dubai.

Aramco trims its dividend

Saudi Arabia’s government will forgo billions of dollars in income from its oil giant this year, giving up funds needed for economic diversification to fortify Aramco’s balance sheet. Aramco — which distributes the world’s biggest dividend — will reduce its payout to $85.4 billion in 2025, down from $124.2 billion last year, after weaker-than-expected oil prices resulted in lower profits. The decline is likely to persist after OPEC+ agreed to boost output, but Saudi could earn more from its bigger quota. The kingdom will be allowed to pump nearly 500,000 additional barrels per day by the end of the year. Aramco said an extra million bpd “could generate an additional $12 billion in operating cash flow, based on 2024’s average price.”

An $85 billion dividend is hefty, but Saudi Arabia’s transformation needs far more than that. Riyadh is forecasting a $27 billion budget deficit for 2025 and has turned to debt markets to fill the gap. Non-oil growth is outpacing the broader economy, but critics warn the kingdom remains heavily dependent on sovereign wealth fund investments — which are in part funded by Aramco payouts.

Analysis: OPEC+ decision confounds

Most oil market watchers were expecting OPEC+ would again delay unwinding its voluntary cuts, but the group defied expectations, Amena Bakr, the head of Middle East Energy & OPEC+ research at global commodities data firm Kpler, writes in a Semafor column.

“OPEC+’s decision signals that demand can support additional supply and that nearly three years of cuts have tightened stock levels,” Bakr writes. “A key component of the deal is the UAE’s long-awaited 300,000-bpd quota adjustment over 18 months, which would allow the country to move closer to its production capacity and enhance group cohesion.”

ADNOC, OMV create chemicals giant

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) and Austrian energy and chemicals producer OMV are merging some petrochemicals and plastics units to form Borouge Group, a company valued at more than $60 billion. Borouge will be headquartered in Austria, with a regional base in the UAE and offices in Canada and Singapore. The company will acquire Canada’s Nova Chemicals — currently owned by Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala — positioning it as the world’s fourth-largest producer of polyolefins, which are plastics used in everything from packaging and toys to car bumpers and medical devices. ADNOC plans to transfer its stake in Borouge to XRG, its lower-carbon energy and chemicals, and global gas investment platform.

Gulf oil producers have long expanded into petrochemicals to boost returns from crude production and meet rising demand in a market projected to double by 2050, a strategy that contrasts with international oil companies’ apparent shift away from refined products. BP last month launched a “strategic review” of its global lubricants business, while Shell is considering selling its chemicals assets in the US and Europe, according to The Wall Street Journal.

US rejects Arab plan for Gaza

Arab leaders endorsed Egypt’s $53 billion Gaza reconstruction plan, only for the US to promptly reject it. The Arab League’s emergency summit in Cairo concluded with the first unified counter to US President Donald Trump’s proposal to “take over” Gaza and displace Palestinians. The Arab plan estimates a three-to-five-year rebuilding process, with Gazans remaining in temporary housing rather than leaving the enclave. Governance would be overseen by a small technocratic committee for six months before transitioning to a revamped Palestinian Authority.

“The current proposal does not address the reality that Gaza is currently uninhabitable and residents cannot humanely live in a territory covered in debris and unexploded ordnance,” a US National Security Council spokesman said. Trump, in his 100-minute congressional address on Tuesday, didn’t mention his plan to redevelop Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East.”

Youth obesity expected to surge

The year by which the Middle East and North Africa will have the highest proportion of overweight and obese youths in the world, according to a new study published in the medical journal The Lancet. More than half of young people aged 5-24 in the region are expected to be overweight or obese by then, driven by the spread of highly processed foods and more sedentary lifestyles resulting from urbanization. The health and economic toll is already significant — obesity-related deaths and disabilities are estimated to cost the UAE around $12 billion a year. The region isn’t an outlier. The Lancet study called the rise of obesity a “global epidemic” that requires aggressive measures to be reined in.

Israelis drawn to Dubai property

Israeli investors are pouring into Dubai’s property market, drawn by prices nearly half those in Tel Aviv and higher returns. One- and two-bedroom apartments priced between 1-2 million shekels ($278,000-$556,000) are proving the most popular, with buyers targeting more affordable areas like Jumeirah Village Circle and Business Bay. A Tel Aviv realtor told The Times of Israel that 1 million shekels isn’t enough for a deposit on similar units in Israel, which yield around 3% annually. Tax exemptions and superior amenities, including pools and gyms, add to the appeal.

Convening over three days in Washington, DC, the World Economy Summit 2025 is dedicated to advancing dialogues that catalyze global growth and fortify resilience in an uncertain, shifting global economy. This week, we’re announcing our world-class program and the opening of delegate registration. Twelve sessions over three days will focus on the dynamic forces shaping the global economic and geopolitical system. Each session is designed to inspire transformative, newsmaking dialogue to shape a more prosperous economy. Apply to be an in-person delegate or sign up for a virtual pass to watch every session live.

Apr. 23-25 | Washington, DC | Learn More

Education

• The UAE — which has had an AI minister since 2017 — is launching an undergraduate program in the field. The Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence offers degrees in AI business and AI engineering, and students will learn from the teams that developed Arabic large language model JAIS.

Finance

• Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund plans to invest in Goldman Sachs-managed funds focused on private credit and public equity in the kingdom and the Gulf. The agreement aims to strengthen Saudi’s asset management industry and encourage other foreign managers to expand in the kingdom. BlackRock, State Street, and other local and foreign firms have established investment funds backed by PIF.

Logistics

• It doesn’t just feel like delivery motorcycles are everywhere in Riyadh — it’s quantifiable. Saudi Arabia’s annual motorcycle imports jumped 44% in 2024, driven by surging demand in e-commerce, food delivery, and parcel services. The rapid growth of the sector is also prompting new regulations and licensing to streamline operations. — Al-Eqtisadiah

As global temperatures consistently hit record highs, Dubai has recorded a surprising cooling trend over the past 25 years. A new study found that land surface temperatures in urban areas fell from 52 degrees Celsius in 1998 to 49 degrees in 2023, which researchers attribute to the expansion of green spaces and water bodies. Large inland water features such as Dubai Creek and artificial lagoons act as heat sinks, while greenery cools the air by providing shade and moisture. It’s a counterintuitive result for a country that ranks among the top five carbon emitters per capita. But let’s be clear: 49 degrees Celsius (120 Fahrenheit) is hardly cool.

The company that makes Tasers is looking to arm CEOs’ security teams with its “less lethal” weapons following the fatal shooting of UnitedHealthcare’s Brian Thompson, Semafor’s Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson reports.

“Over the next year, you might start to hear more about certain CEOs being protected by Taser,” said Josh Isner, president of Axon Enterprise, who said his business had received several inquiries from companies since Thompson’s killing.

In addition to the signature weapon it sells to law enforcement, Isner said the company was developing “more covert” devices that could be worn more comfortably in “an executive security type of scenario.”