 I’ve had many conversations this week with people who are angry about the Trump administration’s decision to send Nvidia H200s to China, which we scooped on Monday. If I had to sum their arguments up in a few words, it would be: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. China is on the heels of the US in terms of AI capability, but US companies are gobbling up market share all over the world, building “AI factories” — as they like to call the massive compute clusters — to enable a new technology wave. By withholding US chips from China, the US is forfeiting the opportunity to become the standard tech stack there. But nobody believes that’s even a remote possibility anyway. Overall, things are going pretty well for American AI, and export controls have undoubtedly helped, even if you believe they pushed China to accelerate its inevitable technological independence. It appears that part of President Donald Trump’s motivation to change the status quo is that he just doesn’t like the idea of US chip companies — which have been incredibly important for the country’s economy and national security — being held back from a lucrative market. And people working for the president, as far as I can tell, genuinely believe there’s more upside than downside in sending H200s to China. They wouldn’t say it this way, but I think there’s a worst-case scenario that it doesn’t actually do much to keep Chinese companies on the Nvidia stack, and it even helps China in some way. But the worst-case scenario is not catastrophic. The technology race with China is a long one, and it’s more about the US moving faster than making China move slower. But there is an array of thoughtful views on this — including from Ben Thompson at Stratechery, Tim Culpan at Culpium, Dmitri Alperovitch on ChinaTalk’s podcast, and The Information. |