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In this edition, Anthropic is taking a deep dive into how AI will impact jobs, and what to do about ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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June 27, 2025
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Reed Albergotti
Reed Albergotti

Today we have a scoop on Anthropic’s new effort to fund research on AI potentially taking our jobs and what to do about it.

This is something people in Silicon Valley have been worrying about for some time, and it’s a main reason the idea of “universal basic income” is so popular out here.

Lately, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has been warning of AI decimating white-collar jobs, leading to a 20% unemployment rate, compared to the current 4.2% level. It’s laudable that the firm actually wants researchers to dig into the issue and find real evidence.

But if people really studied this — in the US, at least — they might find technologists are giving technology too much credit for problems created by politicians.

Over the last half century, the American dream has become harder to achieve and at the same time, the US tech industry has boomed, especially after the Cold War ended and ideas like the internet were repurposed for commercial use. It was one of the greatest periods of wealth creation in global history, and yet for a large chunk of America, life got worse.

You could say this was because of the internet and personal computers, which have caused a large number of jobs to disappear, but that would ignore offshoring production, diminishing social safety nets, and other shifts during that period.

There is no reason artificial intelligence, which will likely lead to another great boom in wealth creation, needs to further erode quality of life for average Americans.

While there will be some downsides to the technology, blaming AI can also be a scapegoat for politicians who fail to address our future economic problems.

Move Fast/Break Things

➚ MOVE FAST: Watchdogs. The EU has forced changes at Apple’s App Store in that region after threatening to impose daily fines of about $58 million for antitrust violations. The regulator will review the moves to see if Tim Cook’s firm has done enough, and is similarly pressuring Meta in another case that could result in daily penalties.

➘ BREAK THINGS: Watch out. China’s $50 billion chip fund is looking to back areas hit by US curbs like lithography and software design, Bloomberg reported. It’s another possible unintended consequence of efforts to limit the Asian nation’s tech ambitions, which has resulted in homegrown successes such as Huawei’s AI chips.

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AI’s Labor Market Prompt
Dario Amodei.
Kimberly White/Getty Images for TechCrunch/CC BY 2.0

Anthropic is launching an effort to address the economic consequences of AI, after CEO Dario Amodei made dire predictions about job losses and a massive spike in unemployment.

On Friday, the company kicked off the Anthropic Economic Futures Program, which will bolster research on the impacts of AI and encourage new proposals on how to mitigate the downside effects.

Amodei has been outspoken about the potential fallout of AI, including the risks to humanity. More recently, he predicted AI would eliminate 50% of entry-level white collar jobs within five years, which has upset the Trump administration given its focus on incentivizing innovation, partly to compete against China.

“This is really a wide call for people thinking creatively about how we can study the broad effects of AI,” said Sarah Heck, Anthropic’s head of policy programs and partnerships.

An in-house team of economic experts at Anthropic plan to award 20 to 50 global research grants of up to $50,000 each, and provide free access to Anthropic’s AI products to assist in the analysis.

Heck said a few areas that researchers might look at are AI’s effect on GDP, how fast the technology is being adopted, and whether the labor market is already changing as a result.

The program will also establish new forums for researchers and policymakers to develop ideas on how to prepare for the eventual onslaught of AI. This fall, Anthropic plans to host a conference in Washington, DC and Europe to present and discuss those plans.

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AI Trade School

Demand for university degrees is decreasing across the job market, especially for roles that can now be largely automated by AI — like software engineering and customer service, according to a recent PwC report. The long-term effect could mean lower college enrollments and the cropping up of trade schools that teach students how to use AI, according to Andrew Reece, chief AI scientist at career coaching platform BetterUp.

A chart showing the amount of job postings with degree requirements for roles with varying levels of AI exposure.

People are rethinking the value of college as AI changes what the workforce looks like and it’s becoming easier for students to cheat, he said. And certain skillsets acquired from university classes can be displaced by emerging technologies, like the ability to code. Doctors and lawyers are still going to need their specialized education, but master’s degree programs — which fewer students are enrolling in — are likely to take a further hit, he said.

For some students, in place of bachelor’s and master’s programs, Reece envisions a kind of AI vocational school that teaches students how to apply AI to their specific career interests. Workforce development initiatives may also focus less on job-related tasks, like learning a new coding language, he said, and more on management and interpersonal communication skills.

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Plug

What do all budding billionaires have in common? They spend five minutes every morning reading The Hustle. The Hustle’s daily newsletter is a breezy, five-minute morning read that keeps you sharp on everything business and tech. Join 2M+ innovators and sign up today.

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Free Plan, Please

Roughly 1.8 billion consumers have used AI tools, a third of whom do so daily. But almost all of them are using the products for free, according to a report from Menlo Ventures released Thursday. That leaves a huge amount of untapped revenue for AI companies that must pay off hundreds of billions in capital expenditures to build out their AI footprints.

A chart showing the share of consumers who pay for an AI product versus use its free version.

There are a few avenues they can tap to convert users, said Menlo’s ​​Shawn Carolan, who invests in consumer tech. Developing assisted memory features — as well as the ability for AI to access accounts and conduct transactions on a user’s behalf — makes premium subscriptions more attractive to individuals who might otherwise switch products when they run out of free credits. Menlo’s estimates assume that if the 1.8 billion AI users paid a $20 average monthly subscription, the market should be $432 billion — not today’s $12 billion, or 3% of the total.

“But I think the biggest opportunity is: How do you continue to have the service be free for the end user, and monetize it in alternative ways?” he said. Affiliate fees and targeted advertisements are the answer here — the latter of which he said “can be way better” with AI due to the level of specificity users search with and the historical data tech companies have on their users.

— Rachyl Jones

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Live Journalism

Can we reconnect a generation? A mental health crisis is gripping young people, with rates of depression, anxiety, and loneliness rising. As social bonds fray and digital life deepens isolation, experts are sounding the alarm and demanding action.

Join Semafor at The Gallup Building to hear from Daniel Zoltani, Executive Director of the Whole Foods Market Foundation; Sara DeWitt, Senior Vice President and General Manager of PBS KIDS; Mark Dalton, Senior Policy Director of Technology and Innovation at R Street; Stacey McDaniel, National Director of Strategy and Quality Practice for Anti-Hunger of YMCA; January Contreras, Former Assistant Secretary for the Administration for Children and Families, US Department of Health and Human Services; and Steve Bullock, Former Governor of Montana, as Semafor explores the complex drivers of youth wellbeing, highlighting opportunities to rebuild social ties, foster resilience, and develop lasting strategies to improve the mental health of young people.

July 16, 2025 | Washington, DC | RSVP

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Artificial Flavor
Ainus wearing their traditional clothes, Ainu Museum, City of Shiraoi, Hokkaido, Japan.
Torbenbrinker/Wikimedia Commons/CC BY-SA 3.0

Researchers in Japan are using AI in an attempt to preserve the indigenous language of Ainu, which is considered “Critically Endangered” by UNESCO, the BBC reported. Using digitized recordings of the language — which is spoken primarily in the island of Hokkaido — an end-to-end model is learning how to recognize the speech and turn it into text. The researchers are also developing a system that can conversely read text and generate accompanying speech. Some of the few remaining Ainu speakers review the outputs for accuracy.

“I hope this kind of AI can help people in Hokkaido, Ainu ancestors or young people, to learn the Ainu language,” said Tatsuya Kawahara, the Kyoto University professor leading the project. While not created for this initiative yet, digital avatars could one day act as teaching aids to help people learn the language, he said.

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Semafor Spotlight
A great read from Semafor Net Zero.
COP30 President Ambassador André Côrrea do Lago. Andressa Anholete/File Photo/Reuters.

Climate negotiators meeting at this year’s COP30 in Brazil must “rethink many things”  as a result of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the summit’s president told Semafor’s Prashant Rao in an interview.

André Corrêa do Lago’s remarks come amid growing doubts among climate officials over whether the November talks will be successful: Increased opposition in the US toward measures to address climate change have already dimmed COP30’s prospects, as has pressure on government budgets elsewhere.

For more on the intersection between climate and policy, subscribe to Semafor Net Zero. →

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