Africa

1. Counting the costs
2. Mobile capex
3. Electoral power boost
4. Ballooning budget
5. Captive audience

Also, the beauty queen who found global success for Nigeria.

Hello! Welcome to Semafor Africa, where we’re always trying to put ourselves in the best position. That is what we’re hearing from Washington DC, where the winds of change are blowing hard as everyone, from Capitol Hill down to the lobbyists on K Street, gets set for a second Trump administration in January.

President-elect Donald Trump has been making a series of dramatic and controversial early nominations for senior roles in his cabinet and key agencies. The common thread seems to be loyalty rather than subject matter expertise. Some people I speak with in DC still seem to think nominations for Africa-related posts will be more typical, though we might not know for a few more weeks. But, whatever happens, it will feel quite different just because of the feverish excitement in Trump MAGA circles right now.

In the early days of any incoming administration there’s always intense jockeying for positions and influence. With Africa, we’re hearing there’s a push for the ‘Three G’s: God, gays and guns.’ In summary it’s an attempt to row back some of what has been seen on the American conservative right as an overly politically progressive approach to US-Africa diplomacy during the Biden administration.

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The cost of climate change

The amount Africa will need each year by 2030 for climate change adaptation and renewable energy investment, according to the African Group of Negotiators at COP29. The delegation said the wealthiest nations, which are also the highest emitters, should take responsibility for the impact of climate change on the global south by paying a fair share of these costs. The delegation — which included envoys from Kenya, Uganda, and South Africa — also demanded a change in the global financial system, which they said had failed to ensure equity in climate financing.

South Africa’s network spending

Mobile network operators in South Africa generated 120 billion rand ($6.6 billion) in 2023, more than half the total revenue generated by the country’s telecommunications sector. South African mobile network operators raked in average revenue of $5.10 per month per user, a figure only bettered by China among members of the BRICS bloc, according to data by telecom industry group GSMA. But South African MNOs spent the most on capital investments per capita among members of the bloc. While the country is nearly at full 4G coverage, only a third of the population has access to 5G, compared to 90% in China and above 40% in Brazil and India, GSMA notes.

Senegal’s ruling party set for parliamentary majority

Senegal’s president looks set to secure a crucial electoral victory that would enable him to implement his economic agenda.

Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s Pastef party is projected to win an absolute majority after Sunday’s legislative elections. A government spokesperson claimed a “large victory” and two opposition party leaders conceded defeat before all votes were counted. Official results are expected later on Tuesday.

Faye dissolved parliament in September and called the election in the hope of securing the parliamentary makeup needed to pass legislation.

In the seven months since becoming president, Faye has ordered audits of energy contracts, with a view to possibly renegotiating them and unveiled a 25-year development plan.

— Alexander Onukwue

Nigeria plans increased spending

Nigeria’s government has unveiled a 47.9 trillion naira ($28 billion) budget for 2025 — more than 60% bigger than this year’s spending plan.

It assumes an exchange rate of 1,400 naira to the dollar, the budget minister told reporters last week. The naira has depreciated 70% against the dollar since May 2023.

Nigerian budgets are anchored on oil sales because the country is Africa’s top crude producer. The latest estimates a price of $75 per barrel in 2025 and daily production of 2 million barrels. Olufunmilola Adebowale, of Lagos-based broker Parthian Partners, said the oil price estimate is “reasonable” but the production target seems “overly optimistic,” citing OPEC data that Nigeria produced 1.4 million barrels per day in October.

Funding could also come from debt financing. Nigeria plans to raise $1.7 billion from a eurobond sale, finance minister Wale Edun said last week.

— Alexander Onukwue in Lagos

Australian mining firm to pay Mali $160M

Australian firm Resolute Mining agreed to pay Mali’s military government $160 million to settle a tax dispute. It follows the detention of its CEO Terrence Holohan and two other executives.

The company on Monday said it paid $80 million from its cash reserves and would pay a further $80 million in the coming months. It said it was working with the ruling junta to secure the release of the executives, who had been held for more than a week.

The government last year led a review of Mali’s mining code aimed at securing a greater share of revenues generated by mining companies in the gold-rich nation. Companies have feared long-term mining agreements could be terminated.

The payment is part of a broader agreement that includes committing to “detailed discussions” about transitioning to the mining code, Resolute said in a statement.

But the junta’s success in extracting a much-needed cash injection from Resolute could prove to be a Pyrrhic victory, say analysts who argue the move could deter future investors.

— Martin K.N Siele

Know your Juls from your Julius Maada Bio? Then The Long Wave is for you. A weekly dose of Black life, Nesrine Malik covers politics, culture and more from Europe to Africa to the Americas and the Caribbean. Edited by Jason Okundaye, this Guardian newsletter brings together views from across the Black diaspora. Sign up for free now.

Energy

🇳🇦 Namibia could double its annual GDP growth to 8% within a decade and reduce its dependence on diamonds, because of new offshore oil and gas finds, its mining and energy minister told the Financial Times.

Geopolitics

🇳🇬 Nigeria and India said they had agreed to collaborate further in maritime security, intelligence and counter-terrorism, healthcare and food security during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit.

🇸🇩 The UK announced a £113 million ($142.6 million) aid package to support more than one million people affected by Sudan’s civil war.

Tech

🌍 Software engineer workforce platform Andela is launching a program to train 20,000 Africans in cloud computing in 2025 for free, in partnership with the Linux Foundation.

Deals

🇿🇦 Insurance group Sanlam is set to acquire 60% of Multichoice Group’s insurance business for 1.2 billion rand ($66 million), the South African companies said. The deal will close on Nov. 30.

🌍 The UK’s British International Investment committed $16 million to the Africa Go Green Fund, an initiative that provides financing to African clean energy companies.

🇸🇳 Senegal-based HR management software startup Socium raised $5 million from French investor Breega as well as Partech Partners, Sonatel, Orange Digital Ventures, and Chui Ventures.

Governance

🌍 Opposition leader Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi has been elected president of Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia. He received 64% of the vote in an election that may have significant implications for the region.

🇿🇼 Zimbabwe’s treasury told government departments to impose cost-cutting measures, such as limiting foreign travel and reducing fuel allocations. It follows the depreciation of the new gold-backed ZiG currency.

🇲🇺 Mauritius’ new Prime Minister Navinchandra Ramgoolam ordered an audit of the nation’s finances. He said data had been “manipulated” to suggest the economy was performing better than it actually was.

🇬🇦 Voters in Gabon approved a new constitution following a referendum, authorities said. The ruling junta, which seized power last year, said the new constitution was a step towards transition to civilian rule.

Nigeria’s representative at the 73rd Miss Universe competition, Chidimma Adetshina, came first runner-up to Denmark’s Victoria Kjær Theilvig. It means Adetshina was effectively crowned Miss Universe Africa and Oceania at the event in Mexico City on Saturday. This is the highest-ever placing in the global pageant for Nigeria. Adetshina, 23, originally entered the Miss South Africa competition before withdrawing following xenophobic attacks and probing of her identity. She was born and raised in South Africa to a Nigerian father and a Mozambican mother with South African citizenship. She follows in the footsteps of Agbani Darego, the first Nigerian to be crowned Miss World in 2001.

Supporting Ukraine’s transition to clean energy could be a crucial strategy for the incoming Trump administration to counter Russia and China, Semafor’s Tim McDonnell wrote. Ukraine’s foreign investment crunch has slowed its energy transition, and investing in its green energy sector “may be one of the cheapest and easiest ways for the Trump administration to continue supporting the country… with strategic and economic benefits for the US,” McDonnell wrote.

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— Yinka, Alexis, Alexander Onukwue, Martin Siele, and Muchira Gachenge.