The News
Mexico’s president urged “a cool head” as US President Donald Trump began his second term in office with a suite of executive orders that included designating drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations — creating the potential for the use of the US military on Mexican soil.
Mexican President Cladia Sheinbaum on Tuesday sought to reassure citizens worried about the country’s sovereignty, and said she would work with Trump on security.
One expected order targeting Mexico — 25% trade tariffs — did not come Monday, but the Mexican private sector is already rushing to appease the US president to avoid that eventuality. Sheinbaum’s government has also ramped up a crackdown on sales of illegal opioids.
SIGNALS
US has significant leverage over Mexico, but free trade benefits both
Mexico’s workforce is largely determined by how much trade the country has with theUS, according to the Atlantic Council, giving Washington significant leverage to direct Mexico’s economic and security policies. But 33% of all export-dependent jobs in the US are supported by Mexico and Canada, and tariffs could make US experts more expensive and less profitable. That interchange means the US has “deep political interests in maintaining the [US-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement],” the group wrote. Deciding whether to renew the trade deal, due to expire later this year, could set up a point of tension for Trump and congressional lawmakers: USMCA has “outsized performance” in key Republican constituencies, as well as states like Wisconsin and Michigan that swung for Trump in 2024.
Mexican companies move to embrace Trump
Mexican firms that once shunned Donald Trump are now cozying up to the president in the hope of dodging any future US-Mexico tariffs, The Wall Street Journal reported: Representatives for Cemex — the company refused to help build Trump’s border war — were at his inauguration on Monday, and the company said it would invest as much as $6 billion in the US during his term in office. Mexican companies are “scared to death about tariffs,” one Hispanic business leader said, describing the attempts to establish direct lines to the White House as “a blanket of security.” Other corporations, like Mexican rail company REMED, are touting how economic development in Mexico can reduce poverty and stem northern migration in a bid to attract Trump’s attention.
Trump, Mexico need to rebalance cartel strategy, expert warns
Both Washington and Mexico City are “pursuing two different and mutually exclusive objectives” in tackling cartels, experts told El País: “Mexico’s objective must always be focused on reducing the violence generated by drug cartels. The United States’ objective is to prevent drugs from reaching its country. There is a huge gap between both,” one expert said. Sheinbaum has increased seizures of illegal opioids to appease Trump, and could ramp up police action further. That decision would risk more violence, a Mexican drug enforcement expert told El País, because police militarization in Mexico has in the past led to “the normalized use of harassment and violence against the country’s own citizens.”