The News
US jobs growth ended 2024 hot, but the new year brought some chills.
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, falling below Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 175,000, the Labor Department reported Friday. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4%, beating forecasts.
The figures set the tone for the new year and the start of a new presidential administration. Despite the dip in total job growth, economists still consider the economy generally resilient, bolstered by upward revisions in the previous two months’ numbers. The Labor Department revised December’s growth, already some of the best employment numbers in recent months, up by 51,000, bringing the month’s total growth to 307,000. It also increased November’s figure to 261,000.
Wages grew more than expected in January by 4.1% year-over-year, against December’s 3.9% increase.
The US Federal Reserve will meet again in March to decide whether it will cut its federal funds rate, after holding rates steady in January. Wall Street traders are betting overwhelmingly that the central bank will bypass another cut, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
“Most of the people who want jobs have them, and people who have jobs are getting paid more,” Interactive Brokers chief strategy Steve Sosnick told Yahoo Finance. “This doesn’t incentivize the Fed to do anything right now.”
TradeStation’s market strategy head David Russell agreed. “This keeps the Fed on hold and focused on the price side of its mandate,” he told Semafor. “It’s consistent with a strong economy with the potential of lower rates later in the year, but not decisive one way or the other.”