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Semafor Signals

Debate over whether Trump’s clash with courts will lead to ‘constitutional crisis’

Feb 12, 2025, 1:49pm EST
businessNorth America
The US Supreme Court
Benoit Tessier/Reuters
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The News

Eight inspectors general who were fired by US President Donald Trump filed a lawsuit Wednesday claiming their termination was illegal — the latest legal challenge against the new administration’s early actions.

In recent weeks, a flurry of lawsuits has pushed back against Trump’s efforts to reshape the federal government, cut agency budgets, and pursue an aggressive immigration agenda. Judges have blocked or paused some of those moves.

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Over the weekend, Vice President JD Vance suggested that “judges aren’t allowed to control the executive’s legitimate power.” And on Monday, a judge said the Trump administration hadn’t complied with an earlier ruling blocking a federal aid freeze.

Legal experts are now raising questions over Trump’s potential response to future orders that block his plans — and whether the president could ignore them, perhaps sparking a constitutional crisis in the process.

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SIGNALS

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.

Some scholars believe US is already facing ‘constitutional crisis’

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Sources:  
The New York Times, CNN, Britannica

There is an ongoing debate about what constitutes a constitutional crisis — but several law professors believe the US is in the midst of one right now, they told The New York Times, describing it as a “chaotic flood of activity that collectively amounts to a radically new conception of presidential power.” Trump’s first weeks in office have suggested a “disobedience of court orders and an unfolding constitutional collapse,” CNN’s Supreme Court analyst argued. Some scholars worry the crisis could escalate if Trump defies the Supreme Court, putting the country in somewhat uncharted territory: President Andrew Jackson refused to enforce a 1832 decision regarding Native American land, allowing states to further hurt tribes.

Fears of a constitutional crisis are overwrought, others argue

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Sources:  
The Wall Street Journal, NPR

Concerns about Trump sparking a constitutional crisis are overblown, The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board argued. “Trump is stretching laws to see what he can get away with, but so have other recent Presidents,” the paper wrote, citing Barack Obama and Joe Biden’s ambitious plans that were thwarted by the courts. “The real crisis would come if Mr. Trump defies a Supreme Court ruling… Readers can relax in the meantime.” A legal professor told NPR that the country is “undergoing a constitutional stress test,” but not yet a constitutional crisis.

Courts still have substantial enforcement power

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Sources:  
LawFare, Ezra Klein

Some experts believe the chances of Trump defying a court ruling are low. While the judiciary is a “highly imperfect instrument,” it has many enforcement tools at its disposal, like sanctioning lawyers and holding parties in contempt, the editor-in-chief of LawFare wrote. And if Trump defies the conservative-leaning Supreme Court, “that might actually stir congressional anxiety,” potentially activating another check on the White House. It’s also unclear whether Vance’s statement about the limits of the judiciary is “part of a broader strategy” in coordination with the administration, or if he’s “ just trying to make himself look tough to the MAGA faithful or useful to Elon Musk,” The New York Times’ Ezra Klein said.

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