The News
Germany’s center-right Christian Democratic Union, led by Friedrich Merz, is projected to win the country’s national elections Sunday, in a ballot that will determine who governs the world’s third largest economy.
The far-right populist Alternative for Germany party has come second, with 20% of the vote, according to exit polls.
The result marks an historic gain for the far right, but the AfD is unlikely to ultimately gain power, as mainstream parties have indicated they will form a coalition to block it.
The election comes as Germany’s economy — once the continent’s industrial backbone — is struggling under pressure from China and weak European demand. Compounding these challenges are US President Donald Trump moves to disrupt long-standing international alliances and trade relationships, and growing concerns about the future of European security. Against such context, Germany’s vote is “possibly the most consequential postwar election it’s seen,” John Kampfner wrote in Politico.
SIGNALS
National polls could forecast the future of the far right
Germany’s populist and anti-immigration AfD is forecast to finish second in the election — a massive surge compared to their performance four years ago. The AfD’s new leader Alice Weidel, who lends the party a more appealing, “cosmopolitan” image, has succeeded in making the group appear to be “just another party,” The New York Times wrote, even as experts say the AfD’s language and stances have become more radical. But the AfD will almost certainly not hold power or be part of a governing coalition: All the mainstream parties have ruled out working with the AfD, part of a longstanding, post-World War II “firewall” against the German far right.
US-Germany relations change are set to change
Germany’s strained transatlantic relationship to Washington has been under a spotlight in the run-up to Sunday’s vote, especially after tech billionaire and Donald Trump ally Elon Musk threw his weight behind the AfD, while US Vice President JD Vance has also criticized European governments for shunning the far right. The conservatives primed to lead the next government want to change that dynamic: CDU leader Freidrich Merz has said he wants to more proactively represent Germany’s interests, and floated making a “deal” with Trump to ease tensions. A high-ranking CDU member said Europe and the US should also consider an agreement to eliminate any tariffs, Semafor reported.
Europe’s biggest economy weighs heavy on the continent
What happens in Germany — the European Union’s most populous nation and its largest economy — has broad ramifications for the entire continent. Germany’s recent domestic slowdown has exacerbated Europe’s own challenges, as its industrial production — the foundation of the German economy — has declined in the face of competition from China. The election also comes at a pivotal moment for the Ukraine war, which will alter Europe’s future. Germany is a big contributor to Ukraine’s defense, but so far has been sidelined in US-led peace talks with Russia. Despite a fraught geopolitical landscape, the next government in Berlin has an opportunity to assert itself: Merz has called for a unified European response to ensure Berlin ”does not sit at the kids’ table.”