The News
Germany is set to vote Sunday in national elections that could have widespread ramifications both within the European Union and across the Atlantic in Washington.
The ballot, which is being held seven months early, was called after incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition collapsed in November.
The center-right opposition Christian Democratic Union is on track to finish first, according to polling, and its leader Friedrich Merz is widely expected to become chancellor. The elections, which will determine the direction of the world’s third-largest economy as it navigates the new Donald Trump administration and growing security threats to the EU, will also offer insight into the electoral strength of the populist far right.
SIGNALS
National polls could forecast the future of the far right
Germany’s populist and anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland is forecast to finish second in the election — a massive surge compared to their performance four years ago. The AfD’s new leader Alice Weidel, who lends the party a more appealing, “cosmopolitan” image, has succeeded in making the group appear to be “just another party,” The New York Times wrote, even as experts say the AfD’s language and stances have become more radical. But the AfD will almost certainly not hold power or be part of a governing coalition: All the mainstream parties have ruled out working with the AfD, part of a longstanding, post-World War II “firewall” against the German far right.
US-Germany relations change are set to change
Germany’s strained transatlantic relationship to Washington has been under a spotlight in the runup to Sunday’s vote, especially after tech billionaire and Donald Trump ally Elon Musk threw his weight behind the AfD, while US Vice President JD Vance just last week criticized European governments for shunning the far right. The conservatives primed to lead the next government want to change that dynamic: CDU leader Freidrich Merz has said he wants to more proactively represent Germany’s interests, and floated making a “deal” with Trump to ease tensions. A high-ranking CDU member said Europe and the US should also consider an agreement to eliminate any tariffs, Semafor reported.
Europe’s biggest economy weighs heavy on the continent
What happens in Germany — the European Union’s most populous nation and its largest economy — has broad ramifications for the entire continent. Germany’s recent domestic slowdown has exacerbated Europe’s own challenges, as its industrial production — the foundation of the German economy — has declined in the face of competition from China. The election also comes at a pivotal moment for the Ukraine war, which will alter Europe’s future. Germany is a big contributor to Ukraine’s defense, but so far has been sidelined in US-led peace talks with Russia. Despite a fraught geopolitical landscape, the next government in Berlin has an opportunity to assert itself: Merz has called for a unified European response to ensure Berlin ”does not sit at the kids’ table.”