The News
US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said Friday that he expected Ukraine to sign a deal “in the very short term” that would give Washington rights to some of Kyiv’s minerals.
Waltz’s remarks at a conservative political conference in Washington came after Axios reported that the US had offered Ukraine an “improved” minerals deal following tough negotiations through the night and into Friday.
The talks over US access to Ukraine’s mineral resources have become a major sticking point between Kyiv and its most important ally. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would not sign it earlier this week, sparking a war of words with US President Donald Trump: Zelenskyy accused Trump of being trapped in a Russian “disinformation space,” while Trump called him a “dictator.” Waltz said earlier that Ukraine needs “to tone it down and take a hard look and sign that deal.”
Ukrainian officials said the first draft of the agreement presented by the US was not in accordance with Ukrainian law, and that it gave Washington huge concessions without offering any security guarantees in exchange.
As Trump continues his diplomatic outreach with Russia, Kyiv hopes that successfully negotiating a minerals deal could bring its relationship with Washington back on a more stable footing.
SIGNALS
Ukraine’s reserves don’t amount to what Trump has demanded
While details of the current minerals deal remain unclear, the original proposal gave the US ownership or revenue from 50% of Ukraine’s rare earth mining and other natural resources in exchange for Washington’s previous aid to Kyiv, CNN reported. While Trump has said the deal should be worth ”$500 billion worth of rare Earth,” Ukraine’s deposits may not be profitable to extract, and the promised potential of its minerals relies on questionable and outdated Soviet assessments, according to an S&P analysis. Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas called the plan “folly,” noting that the total global production of rare earth minerals is worth only $15 billion. While Ukraine has other critical minerals, many of the country’s biggest mines are under Russian control, Blas noted.
Russia mulls allowing frozen assets to be spent in Ukraine
While Russia has shown few signs of concessions in peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources told Reuters that the Kremlin is considering the idea of using the $300 billion in Russian frozen assets to rebuild Ukraine, on the condition that part of the money is spent on the territories Russia controls. However, it remains unclear if the US or Europe, where most of the frozen assets are held, would agree to the conditions. Some European countries believe the Russian assets should be used to fund Ukraine’s war efforts or pay for reconstruction, but several EU members fear confiscating the money could affect the bloc’s financial reputation: Germany and France remain “categorically opposed” to using the assets, The Washington Post reported in January, although European officials believe that could change.
Europe readies Ukraine pitch for Trump
After being left out of US-Russia talks over a Ukraine peace deal, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are headed to Washington, DC, next week to pitch the US on Europe’s plan for Kyiv’s future. The two countries are drawing out a proposal for a “reassurance force” —a small group of European land forces protecting key sites supported by air power and a US backstop — that they are expected to discuss with Trump, the Financial Times reported. Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security adviser, said Thursday the US welcomes that discussion, and added that he has told Europeans if they want “a bigger seat at the table” they will have to do more.