The News
Germany’s elections on Sunday encapsulated the challenges facing the country’s political center — with implications for Europe and the world order.
While a center-right conservative party came out on top and will run the next government, the election also saw more than a third of voters choose parties on either the far right or far left.
The outcome, experts say, will have lasting consequences for Germany, but could also have more immediate impacts: The election forced a reckoning among the more centrist groups that flopped, with several party leaders pledging to either resign or step back. And mainstream lawmakers could have a harder time ramping up defense spending by revising what is known as the debt brake — a move that the far left and far right oppose.
SIGNALS
‘Last chance’ for centrists to counter far right
The conservatives’ victory is seen as the last chance for the centrist governing approach that much of Europe is known for. Far-right factions across the continent have surged in recent years, and are now being actively boosted by the new US administration. Analysts said that the next German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, must show his government can address voters’ concerns over the economy and immigration while uniting Europe in the face of global threats. “The center barely holds but it holds, for now,” an economist told The Wall Street Journal. “The main figures understand that they need to deliver now given how fast the fringes are rising.” Another expert said the center-right has a “unique chance” to push down the far-right Alternative for Germany party.
German centrists and US progressives can create governing gridlocks
The election outcome highlights “the problem with modern Germany. It’s the same issue that dogs the EU,” writer and commentator Wolfgang Münchau argued in Unherd. Enacting change requires a majority, but trying to achieve a majority often leads to gridlock because of differing priorities. “Can another coalition of short-sighted centrists… fix the failure of leadership, and free the nation from its pernicious political trap? I think we know the answer,” Münchau wrote. Meanwhile, a gridlock in the US created by well-intentioned progressives inserting too many checks into the system has rendered government incompetent, Marc J. Dunkelman argued in his book, Why Nothing Works, creating an opening for more populist figures like Donald Trump. “A government too hamstrung to serve the public good will fuel future waves of conservative populism.”
Voting trends across ages highlight deepening polarization
Voting differences across age groups in Germany highlight the deepening, and perhaps lasting, polarization. Young people were most likely to vote for opposite ends of the political spectrum: For voters under 30, the left-wing Die Linke party was the strongest force, followed closely by the far-right AfD, according to the Süddeutsche Zeitung. (Die Linke had a surprisingly strong performance overall, thanks to a strategic online presence.) If it weren’t for elderly voters, there would be no political center at all, Der Spiegel wrote: “The older the voters, the stronger the mainstream parties.” That could be because traditional parties are seen as more effective on issues of concern for the older electorate, like securing pensions.