The News
Chinese-affiliated researchers produced twice as many public research papers on chip design and manufacture as their US counterparts between 2018 and 2023, according to an analysis by Georgetown University’s Emerging Technology Observatory.
The report follows the sudden prominence of Chinese startup DeepSeek’s low-cost artificial intelligence model, R1, which appeared about as capable as some of the leading US models despite running on fewer, less advanced semiconductor chips. DeepSeek’s abilities, as well as other Chinese AI advances, have added urgency to the global race to develop the advanced semiconductors vital for artificial intelligence.
And it’s not just volume: Half of the top-cited articles in the report featured authors from Chinese organizations and universities, compared to 22% from the US and 17% from Europe.
SIGNALS
America’s scientific lead over China is shrinking
The findings don’t necessarily mean that China is leading on chips compared to the US, but it is “showing us where things are headed,” an analyst at the ETO told Nature: If China can translate more basic research into more advanced chips, that could foil US export and other controls that aim to restrict Chinese innovation, especially around artificial intelligence. More broadly, China is increasingly able to rival or even surpass the West in some fields: Chinese universities now dominate the highest-ranking institutions in chemical research — foundational to key industries like pharmaceuticals and aerospace. The US could lose even more technological ground as the result of Trump administration cuts to America’s scientific institutions, a researcher at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute noted.
Clampdown on Chinese tech could hold back global innovation
Western governments are increasingly concerned about China and other adversaries gaining access to sensitive information via such cross-border collaboration, but the restrictions risk stifling innovation, which “depends on the free flow of science and talent,” a science policy expert wrote in The Conversation. While the US has for years used trade and other restrictions aimed at stymieing Chinese scientific innovation in order to safeguard its own scientific and technological lead, The Economist argued last year, it could be more effective in encouraging greater openness to international collaboration on science.