The News
US and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia Tuesday for their first high-level talks since late February’s Oval Office dust-up between Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Donald Trump.
It came as Kyiv hammered the Moscow region overnight with one of the largest long-range drone strikes since the war began, killing two and forcing the city’s airports to close temporarily, Russian authorities reported.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned ahead of the meeting that Washington would be assessing Kyiv’s readiness to make concessions to achieve peace. Ukraine will likely have to “do difficult things” in order to secure a peace deal with Russia, he said.
Emboldened by Washington’s suspension of military and intelligence support for Ukraine last week, Russia upped its offensive, launching strikes aimed at Kyiv, as well as attempting to surround thousands of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian officials are hoping they can convince Washington to unlock military and intelligence support at the Riyadh meeting, while the US may be looking to close a deal to gain access to Ukraine’s critical mineral resources.
“We hope for results,” Zelenskyy said in a video address Sunday. “Both in bringing peace closer and in continuing support.”
SIGNALS
Trump administration looks for signs that Ukraine is serious for peace
The Trump administration wants to assess whether Ukraine is willing to make concessions to Russia in order to end the conflict, two US officials told Reuters. “You can’t say ‘I want peace,’ and, ‘I refuse to compromise on anything,’” one of the officials said. Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously floated some concessions, including potentially ceding some Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine and resigning in exchange for a durable peace deal. Zelenskyy needs to re-secure his relationship with the US “at any cost,” one Ukrainian lawmaker told the BBC. Ukrainian officials fear that even a temporary ceasefire could suit Russia — allowing the Kremlin to regroup and invade again at a time of its choosing unless Kyiv has strong Western security guarantees.
Kyiv hopes intelligence and military support will be turned back on
Ukrainian officials are expected to propose a partial ceasefire, offering to halt long-range strikes and combat in the Black Sea as a first step toward ending the war, the Financial Times reported. Kyiv hopes the proposal will convince the Trump administration to reverse the freeze on intelligence sharing and weapons deliveries, and restore Washington’s confidence that Ukraine is not the barrier to peace. If Russia declines the proposal, Kyiv hopes the White House will ramp up pressure on Moscow instead. Ukraine has a “safety margin of about six months even without systematic assistance from the United States, but it will be much more difficult” to combat Russian aggression, a Ukrainian lawmaker told news agency RBC-Ukraine.
Europe’s peacekeeping plan remains unclear
A coalition of European countries agreed last week that France and the UK should take the lead in drawing up a peacekeeping plan for Ukraine, agreeing in principle to commit troops, two Western officials told Semafor. Still, there are questions over how long such a force would remain: US soldiers are still in South Korea 72 years after the Korean war ended, while NATO’s Kosovo peacekeepers are also in place more than a quarter century after the intervention there, military analyst Ed Arnold noted. “Governments in 2025 might have to sign up for an open-ended commitment.” Even a modest UK contribution would mean committing roughly 50% of the country’s Field Army to sustaining the operation, potentially risking the country’s commitment to NATO, Arnold argued.