The News
US President Donald Trump said he plans to discuss negotiations to end the Ukraine war with Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Tuesday.
The president is hoping to secure Putin’s support for a 30-day ceasefire proposal already accepted by Kyiv, as speculation mounts that Moscow is playing for time in an effort to seize more territory.
Asked about concessions, Trump said Ukrainian and Russian negotiators had mulled “dividing up certain assets,” including land and power plants.
Russia’s deputy foreign minister made no reference to the proposed truce in remarks Sunday, stressing instead that Russia will seek “ironclad guarantees” that Ukraine will not be granted NATO membership as part of any deal.
SIGNALS
Ukraine is losing one of its biggest bargaining chips
The weekend negotiations came as Ukrainian troops told of a “catastrophic” withdrawal from Russia’s Kursk region after a lightning advance by Moscow, taking a major bargaining chip for Kyiv off the table even as the ceasefire talks gained momentum. Kyiv’s forces, which seized almost 500 square miles of Russian territory in a bold offensive last summer, are clinging to a narrow strip along the border, with one soldier telling the BBC of “panic and collapse” along the frontline. Putin has said a 30-day truce would let Kyiv regroup, but now seems focused on drawing out talks with Washington while also escalating Moscow’s offensive, especially in Kursk, The New York Times wrote.
Economic sanctions could spur Russia to negotiate
Russia’s economy has been crushed under Western sanctions, and Kremlin officials’ questions over lifting penalties as part of a future peace deal indicate “what is the most painful” for them, Kyiv’s top sanctions official told Politico, adding that sanctions relief could help “leverage” a better outcome for Kyiv. Some investors appear to be interpreting the US-led negotiations as a signal that sanctions could soon be lifted: Surging bets in Russian bonds and the rouble indicate “there is definitely some excitement,” a fixed-income analyst told the Financial Times.
European officials remain alarmed over Ukraine, regional security
While Russia’s Vladimir Putin has slightly softened his tone toward a temporary truce, European officials are worried that Moscow’s conditions for a deal do not indicate a genuine desire for peace. French President Emmanuel Macron called for more united European-US pressure on Russia Saturday to accept the proposed ceasefire deal, but US negotiators still seem more aligned to Moscow than Brussels, Reuters wrote: Trump’s national security adviser on Sunday suggested a full retreat by Russian forces in Ukraine was perhaps unrealistic. Former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Monday that lasting peace in Europe may depend on a European nuclear umbrella: “It will send a pretty clear signal to Trump… that the defense of Europe is serious.”