The News
The Trump administration on Monday further escalated its pressure campaign against Iran and its regional proxy militias following Washington’s weekend air strikes against the Houthi group in Yemen.
In a social media post, US President Donald Trump threatened “dire” consequences for Tehran over the Yemen-based Houthi militia’s attacks on international shipping lanes in the Red Sea: “Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN.”
Security analysts believe the US Navy may have fired more missiles in the Red Sea in the last 15 months than in the previous three decades anywhere in the world.
Trump’s remarks come after he sent a letter to Iran’s supreme leader offering to negotiate a deal to end to its nuclear program or face military action. Meanwhile France, the UK, and Germany are making overtures to Tehran, while also threatening a broad array of international sanctions to prevent the country’s nuclear expansion.
SIGNALS
US strikes unlikely to deter the Houthis
US military officials have said the renewed strikes are aimed at a broader range of targets than previous actions under the Biden administration, but “it is unclear how a renewed bombing campaign against the Houthis would succeed where previous American-led military efforts have failed,” The New York Times argued. “Given the long history of Houthi resistance” and the broader Chinese and Russian support for the group, the most recent US airstrikes are unlikely to act as a deterrent, an Atlantic Council analyst wrote. Rather, the conflict could escalate, a Basha Report analyst suggested: “From now on, it’s gloves off between the Houthis and Centcom [the US military command].”
US and Europe both want an urgent nuclear deterrence
Iran has substantially expanded its production of highly enriched uranium, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, shortening the time required to potentially produce a nuclear weapon. Donald Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ policy on Tehran paired with the impending expiration of the 2015 Obama-era Iran nuclear deal — which Trump withdrew US support for in 2018 — could push Iran “to advance its nuclear programme even further,” Chatham House analysts argued. European nations could and should act as mediators, they added: The alternative — a heightened nuclear threat and even a role for Russia in guiding US policy — would leave the continent even less secure than the Ukraine war and Washington’s retreat have left it.
Iran’s economic woes could force it to the negotiating table
“For Iran’s clerical leaders, engaging with the ‘Great Satan’ to hammer out a nuclear deal and ease crippling sanctions may for once be the lesser of two evils,” Reuters noted: Iranian officials fear the country’s economic decline could provoke anti-regime protests, and President Masoud Pezeshkian has struggled to revive the economy through efforts like pursuing sanctions relief and bolstering oil exports to a few willing countries, like China. Still, “the ultimate decision on a policy change rests with [Iran’s Supreme Leader] Khamenei,” The Washington Post wrote. After receiving Donald Trump’s letter, Khamenei seemed to immediately reject nuclear talks with the US.