The News
Ukraine and Russia agreed a limited ceasefire on the targeting of some infrastructure, following Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s call with US President Donald Trump on Wednesday.
The ceasefire agreement is very fragile: The White House confirmed that it covered “energy and infrastructure,” while the Kremlin said that the agreement covered, more narrowly, “energy infrastructure.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that he would also like ports and railways to be protected, The Associated Press reported.
Zelenskyy confirmed that there would be “technical” talks in Saudi Arabia this weekend to delineate exactly what types of infrastructure would be protected.
A 30-day pause in attacks was agreed between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin following a call on Tuesday, though a full ceasefire was then rejected by Putin. Both Kyiv and Moscow traded accusations that this had been violated since, despite Kyiv quickly accepting the pause.
The phone conversation between Trump and Zelenskyy marked a swift improvement in Washington-Kyiv relations, with the US president promising to help source air defense ammo for Ukraine — although Trump also floated the idea of the US owning Ukrainian power plants.
However, the “narrow agreement” between Russia and Ukraine still leaves “a wide chasm” on how they see the war ending, The New York Times wrote.
SIGNALS
Analysts debate prospects of lasting peace in Ukraine
Analysts are divided over the prospects of upcoming talks about a full ceasefire or a more lasting peace. “The phased approach to a ceasefire” that Trump and Putin agreed to “is a possible viable path to an eventual cessation of hostilities,” Russia expert Samuel Charap said, arguing that “starting with small, more verifiable steps” such as the pause in energy infrastructure attacks is more likely to succeed than an attempt to hash out an entire peace deal while fighting is ongoing. By contrast, Orysia Lutsevych, a Ukraine expert at Chatham House, described Putin’s offer to cease targeting Ukrainian energy facilities as a “goodwill gesture to keep Trump interested and get a bigger prize: [the] US abandoning Ukraine.”
Pause in energy attacks may benefit Moscow more than Kyiv
Some analysts have argued that even the pause in attacks on energy infrastructure, presented as a concession from Russia, may ultimately favor Moscow more than Kyiv. Ukraine’s energy needs are falling as spring arrives, and most of the power plants that have not been attacked are nuclear, so striking them would mark a drastic escalation by the Kremlin. By contrast, Kyiv is waging a successful campaign against Russian oil refineries, knocking out 3.3 million metric tons of refining capacity according to Reuters estimates. Still, the ceasefire could provide Ukrainian companies with the opportunity to safely repair and fortify energy facilities, an energy expert at the Atlantic Council noted.
Putin keeps his options open
So far, Putin has found a way to keep his options open by not fully endorsing Trump’s ceasefire proposal, but not rejecting Washington’s overtures either. Some analysts suspect Putin is merely biding for time, stringing Washington along as Russian forces make progress on the battlefield. “It would be bad to say no, so [Russia will] add conditions, stall for time, make a show of thinking about it, and then find a way to blame Ukraine,” a former Russian diplomat told Puck. But Russia expert Mark Galeotti argued that Putin’s dithering highlights his discomfort with making tough decisions. “When there are no easy answers, Putin tries to dodge or delay,” he argued, noting that the Russian leader has a history of avoiding difficult choices.