The News
Illegal US-Mexico border crossings hit a record low in March, in a boost for US President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown.
Just 7,180 migrants crossed the southern border last month, US officials said, down from a monthly average of 155,000 over the previous four years.
The decline follows a steep drop in the number of migrants traveling through the Darién Gap — a treacherous stretch of jungle connecting South and Central America — which fell to its lowest since the pandemic in February, according to Migración Panama.
Trump has deployed a slew of hardline measures to deter border crossings, including mass deportations, deploying more troops to the border, and suspending asylum approvals.
SIGNALS
Trump’s hardline immigration policies are reaping rewards...
Donald Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden significantly ramped up border enforcement toward the end of his term, but “Trump has choked off the flow of migrants even more drastically,” The New York Times wrote. Trump has proven unafraid to use measures many critics “have long considered politically unpalatable, legally untenable and ultimately ineffective.” And it’s popular with his base: Trump’s immigration approval ratings are higher than for his overall performance. Trump’s policies have generated a pervasive fear that has spurred migrant “numbers to go down very rapidly,” one expert told NPR. Mexico has played a key role, too, as the government tries to use immigration as a means to avoid additional tariffs, Axios wrote.
...But the tactics may not stand the test of time
It remains unclear whether Donald Trump’s policies will work longterm. Border crossings are “volatile,” one migration expert told Axios: Crossings fell sharply after Trump took office in 2017 before rebounding in 2019. Migration experts have warned that tariffs and sanctions against South and Central American countries could deepen economic strife, weaken remittance payments, and ultimately push migrants back toward the US border. Partners like Mexico could also decide to stop working with the US, a Brookings Institution analyst said: “What incentive is there [for Mexico] to work with the United Status if they’re going to get punished anyway?” “Given Mexico’s goal of reducing its fiscal deficit in 2025, expanding immigration work may not be feasible,” one analyst noted.
US policies leave many migrants ‘stranded’
“The stifling effect of Trump policies on the movement of people heading north is creating new challenges,” The New Humanitarian wrote. US aid cuts and heightened border security have left thousands of migrants, refugees, and asylum seekers in Mexico with “urgent, unmet needs,” one aid worker told the paper. Mexico is increasingly feeling pressure from this influx, the Los Angeles Times wrote. The country’s refugee agency — which received US aid funding — has been “thronged” by deportees and migrants. People who were headed for the US are now turning back to Central America, where governments “offer little support and cannot manage a surge in returns,” The Economist wrote.