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Mexico said Monday it is filing a complaint against Ecuador with the International Court of Justice after Ecuadorian forces stormed the Mexican embassy in Quito to arrest the country’s former vice president Jorge Glas.
Glas — who has been previously convicted on bribery and corruption charges and is currently under investigation for other corruption allegations — had been granted political asylum to shelter in the Mexican embassy. The raid and his arrest sparked condemnation from several other countries and rights groups, and prompted Mexico to quickly sever diplomatic relations with Ecuador.
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador called the operation “a flagrant violation” of Mexico’s sovereignty.
SIGNALS
Ecuador’s unprecedented move invites ‘anarchy’
The raid was an “almost unprecedented act” that “violated long-established international laws that few rulers have dared to breach,” international law experts told The Associated Press. Though Ecuador is no stranger to political turmoil, it was “a move even the region’s most-criticized governments have hesitated to take,” The AP wrote. One international relations professor warned the move could endanger other embassies: “You enter into a state of anarchy, a sort of jungle law.”
Ecuador is already seeing diplomatic fallout. The governments of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Peru, and Venezuela rebuked the raid, and Nicaragua cut diplomatic ties. Mexico’s decision to suspend relations with Ecuador is “no small punishment,” a professor of international studies told AFP. “It’s a country with a lot of weight in the region.”
Raid might boost Ecuadorian president’s political fortune
Experts say Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa’s decision to raid the embassy and arrest Glas appears to be politically motivated. Noboa is facing a drop in approval ratings as violence rises in Ecuador, and his strongman policies against gangs and government corruption are crucial to his reelection next year, according to The New York Times. “He did this to change all these negative talking points that were affecting him and try to have a conversation in his favor,” an Ecuadorian political analyst told The Times. It seems to be paying off. One pollster told Bloomberg that more Ecuadorians support the raid than disapprove of it. “A majority of people here want to see strong actions and people behind bars,” a political risk consultant said.
Mexican drug cartels’ expansion in Ecuador has sparked a crisis
Noboa’s hardline approach to crime is partly tied to the expansion of Mexican drug cartels in Ecuador, which have taken advantage of its location and robust foreign trade network. The cartels have quickly turned Ecuador into the point of entry for nearly a third of the cocaine entering Europe, The Associated Press reported, and the homicide rate has shot up as a consequence. About six per 100,000 people were killed in 2016, compared to around 40 per 100,000 in 2023.