The News
The US and Iran will hold talks Saturday to try to reach a new deal over Tehran’s nuclear program, amid growing concerns over the prospect of a military escalation between the two powers.
US President Donald Trump announced the meeting Monday, although Iranian officials have insisted that the negotiations will be held indirectly through Omani mediators.
Saturday’s talks come one month after Trump sent a letter to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, setting a two-month deadline for a deal and threatening US military action should Tehran refuse to cooperate.
An Iranian spokesperson said Friday that Tehran was “giving diplomacy a genuine chance […] despite [America’s] hostile rhetoric.”
SIGNALS
Experts skeptical of productive US-Iran talks
Trump is under pressure to reach a stronger agreement than the Obama-era Iran deal he discarded during his first term, but some experts were skeptical about the chances of a successful negotiation: Trump’s likely unwillingness to back down from his threat of military strikes against Tehran may result in “short-lived and unproductive” talks, one expert told The New York Times. Iran’s flagging economy and crumbling alliances strengthen Trump’s hand, The Economist wrote, but his national security team remains “skeletal, inexperienced and ideologically divided” between seeking the dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear sites and limiting its enrichment program. Trump’s unpredictable and contradictory foreign policy approach means he “can’t be a credible negotiator while simultaneously impersonating a madman,” a Bloomberg columnist argued.
US sidelines some allies and diverges with others on Iran approach
By failing to coordinate with Europe ahead of Saturday’s talks, Donald Trump has sidelined “the only deal participants capable of and interested in pursuing snapback,” analysts told Reuters: US’ departure from the 2015 Iran deal means it cannot quickly reimpose UN sanctions against Tehran, potentially undermining Washington’s “maximum pressure” approach to the country. The growing divergence between the US and Israeli positions on Iran’s nuclear proliferation could also hamper talks: Trump’s “preference for diplomacy diverges from Israel’s favored approach of preemptive military action,” one analyst wrote. Israelis want a full dismantlement from Iran, and are concerned that Trump’s approach will weaken the military option to strike Tehran’s nuclear program at an opportune time, The Washington Post wrote.
Deal may not do enough to deter Iran’s nuclear progress
If the US and Israel engage in military action against Iran, it would do little to set back Tehran’s progress, given that its “nuclear capability resides in its scientific knowledge as much as its facilities,” The New Statesman noted. Even if Tehran agrees to scale back its enrichment program as part of a deal, “it has gained vital nuclear know-how that can’t be unwound,” The Wall Street Journal reported, citing Western officials. “To rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions before it is too late, the Trump administration must ditch its obsession with all-or-nothing absolutism” in favor of “patient diplomacy,” the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists argued.