The News
US President Donald Trump hosted El Salvador President Nayib Bukele in Washington Monday, while US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met Argentina’s President Javier Milei in Buenos Aires.
The meetings underscored Trump’s priorities in Latin America, with immigration and trade both central to Washington’s strategy in the continent. Still, analysts have questioned whether Trump’s aggressive approach could backfire, presenting a further opportunity for China.
SIGNALS
Trump’s hardened approach to Latin America could backfire, analysts say
Donald Trump’s second administration has been marked by his toughened approach to Latin America: Mexico — one of Washington’s largest trading partners — and Panama — a long-time US ally — have both faced threats to their sovereignty, even as he has seemingly ignored the region’s vast resources of critical minerals and energy, Americas Quarterly argued. The administration’s approach “has become essentially negative, prioritising unilateral action and dominance rather than partnership,” UK-based think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies wrote, a strategy that will almost certainly backfire, experts said: With Trump more foe than friend and private companies unsure of making foreign investments amid the global trade war, China has an opening to expand its influence in the region.
Trump’s immigration policy syncs with some leaders’ crackdowns on crime
El Salvadoran leader Nayib Bukele has become a “critical lynchpin” to the Trump administration’s mass deportation operation: Bukele’s massive prisons have been decried as sites of human rights abuses, but Trump’s use of them may offer legitimacy, suggesting to other regional powers that “liberties can be traded for results.” Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa has even called for Trump to designate its cartels as terrorist organizations, and to deploy US troops to help fight gang crime. The perceived friendliness with Trump gives populist leaders like Noboa and Bukele broad leverage over their domestic security policies, analysts told CNN, which could see them emboldened to widen crackdowns for political gain.
Milei is yet to see material benefits from building ties to Trump
Argentina’s President Javier Milei’s perceived “special relationship” with Donald Trump has yet to “translate that into being good for the country economically,” one analyst told The Associated Press: Milei’s desired free trade agreement with the US was unlikely on the table Monday during the Argentine leader’s meeting with the US treasury secretary. Instead, Buenos Aires has been inching closer to Milei’s longtime foe, China: Vast investments by Beijing into Argentina’s lithium mines indicate an economic power that “the United States cannot offer,” one analyst told The Buenos Aires Times. Milei’s primary goal is to revive the Argentine economy; but he must now also balance the rivalry between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, “just as their relations deteriorate,” The Times noted.