The News
The European Union is preparing for Russia’s war with Ukraine to persist for at least several months, despite Washington’s insistence that talks with Kyiv and Moscow will soon bear fruit.
The bloc is expected to publish a roadmap for reducing reliance on Russian fossil fuels in the next few weeks, Bloomberg reported, and for extending its sanctions on Moscow beyond the summer.
US President Donald Trump’s special envoy said Tuesday that Moscow was open to a “permanent peace,” but Kyiv appears to share European skepticism: Recent Russian attacks on the Ukrainian city of Sumy showed that Moscow “remains focused on continuing the war,” Ukraine’s president said.
SIGNALS
Trump’s negotiating tactics yet to yield results
Donald Trump’s Kremlin-friendly rhetoric and pivot away from Europe “have encouraged [Vladimir] Putin to believe that he can outlast the West in Ukraine,” one analyst wrote: US military aid to Kyiv will run out in the coming months. As Trump’s carrots fail to yield results, his unwillingness to use or even threaten to use sticks against Moscow — including additional military assistance for Ukraine — “raises a fundamental question,” the conservative anti-Trump news website The Bulwark wrote: “Is the president serious about trying to end the war?” His attempts at negotiation may be ill-conceived: “Putin does not intend to end his war of aggression until he has brought the Ukrainians and their president to their knees,” Le Monde argued.
Europe needs to step up to replace US as Kyiv’s military backer
Given the prospect of a continuing war sans US security assistance, Europe needs to step in “and help save Ukraine from the coming storm,” a former National Security Council official wrote in The Guardian, including by donating more military aid and upping defense spending. So far, however, Europe seems “ill prepared” to replace Washington as Ukraine’s main military backer, one analyst argued, and the bloc’s efforts to boost aid must confront “the reality of a European Union where interest in making sacrifices for Kyiv varies dramatically from country to country,” Politico wrote: A $43.6 billion aid proposal was struck down by Hungary and reduced to $5.4 billion last month.
Putin leans on allies to continue Ukraine war
North Korea’s arms and manpower have given Moscow “a critical battlefield advantage,” in “a war of attrition that Ukraine has struggled to match,” Reuters reported: The regime is reportedly supplying half the munitions required by Russia’s frontline forces. Military cooperation between Russia, China, and North Korea is “deepening,” a top US commander warned last week, with Moscow providing critical military assistance to both countries in return for their help in Ukraine. Still, Vladimir Putin’s victory prospects are not assured: Donald Trump’s trade war has inadvertently threatened Moscow’s war chest by hitting the price of Russia’s oil — its economic lifeline — and potentially China’s demand for it, The New York Times noted.