The News
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff met French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian officials for talks Thursday on ending the war in Ukraine.
A French official said the talks were “positive and constructive” and will be followed by further negotiations in London next week.
Witkoff — who last week met Russian leader Vladimir Putin — has increasingly voiced support for the Kremlin’s demands to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine, indicating the growing gulf between European calls for US support and bolstered security guarantees and Washington’s priorities for negotiations.
Rubio also spoke with his Russian counterpart after the talks, stressing that the US has now presented the framework of a peace deal to all parties, a State Department spokesperson said.
SIGNALS
European proposal for Ukraine slowly comes into focus
Hundreds of European military planners have been involved in discussions over a potential mission in Ukraine, and the broad outlines have started to emerge. The UK is considering a five-year military deployment, and The Washington Post reported Europe is hoping to muster 25-30,000 troops. Still, the proposal is far from final: Paris prefers a ground-intensive option, while the UK wants an air and naval mission and a limited ground presence, Le Monde wrote. And European leaders are still yet to answer whether they would “risk a direct military confrontation with Russia over Ukraine,” a military analyst noted, an ambiguity that risks undercutting their credibility with the Kremlin.
Uncertainties remain over US support for peacekeeping mission
NATO’s European members are capable of deploying troops to Ukraine without the US, Estonia’s defense chief, Major General Andrus Merilo, told Semafor: “Militarily, there is no such challenge.” But negotiations have been complicated by the lack of a US “backstop,” including the intelligence-sharing and air support that some European countries believe are necessary to make any peacekeeping proposal feasible. One Western official compared Europe’s discussions with the US to a “chicken and egg situation” — a strong European proposal could make the US more likely to offer a backstop, but such an offer would also make a strong European response easier to agree and execute. Ukrainian diplomats hope a much-anticipated mineral deal with the US, might soften Washington’s reluctance to play a role in Ukraine’s future security.
Europe braces to pick up the check for US withdrawal
Europe is facing a significant financial shock if it is to fund a multi-year presence in Ukraine, as well as the costs of future aid and the massive military build-up necessary to compensate for Washington’s withdrawal. With the US Congress unlikely to pass more Ukraine aid, Europe must get ready to take over in the likely event that the war does not end soon, a former Biden official argued. As Washington mulls pulling its troops out of Europe, the continent may also have to find the cash to replace US soldiers and weapons systems. Without the US, European countries could need 300,000 more troops, and to boost defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, a Brussels-based thinktank argued.