The News
Canadians vote Monday in a national election that will determine the country’s trajectory on the world stage and its relationship with the US.
The opposition Conservatives are looking to end 10 years of Liberal leadership: Just months ago, that victory seemed almost a foregone conclusion, thanks to the unpopularity of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
That seemingly sealed fate has been upended: US President Donald Trump’s return to power, Trudeau’s resignation, and the elevation of Mark Carney to lead the Liberals has put the party back in front.
The outcome of the vote could redefine North American relations, with some analysts arguing the election represents a historical crossroads for Canada.
SIGNALS
Election represents a pivotal moment for Canada
Canada is facing “one of the most daunting moments in the history of this country,” and the two main parties “offer two different paths from the crossroads,” The Globe and Mail’s editorial board wrote: The opposition Conservatives want to slim down government, while the Liberals, led by new Prime Minister Mark Carney, seek to double-down on Trudeau’s “interventionist high-spending policy.” Amid the shifting world order — and Donald Trump’s repeated taunts targeting Ottawa — the vote “concerns a stack of questions about how and what Canada should be at the start of this new epoch,” CBC wrote. The parties’ differing approaches to Trump, particularly, “speak to real choices this country will have to make in the weeks, months and years,” the outlet noted.
Trump plays starring role up until the last minute
Canada’s contest has been dubbed the “Donald Trump election,” and that rang true through Monday: As voters headed to the polls, the US president repeated his jibe that Canada should become the 51st US state, urging Canadians to “elect the man who has the strength and wisdom” to make it happen. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre responded that Trump should ” stay out of our election,” while a Mark Carney adviser called Trump’s post a “gift”; Carney has made opposing Trump a core campaign message. The outcome of Canada’s ballot represented “the first referendum on Trump amongst democratic allies,” a Liberal lawmaker told Politico.
Opportunities for Conservatives to capitalize on Liberal liabilities
Donald Trump may be the star, but he is not the only motivator in Canada’s election: Frustrated by rising costs, some young Canadians are shifting toward the Conservatives — they rank economic issues as more important than relations with the US, Reuters reported. The opposition party is also trying to make inroads with Jewish voters dissatisfied with the Liberals’ stance on the Israel-Hamas war. Mark Carney’s experience working with China’s business establishment has also become a personal political liability, as Ottawa’s relations with Beijing deteriorate, The New York Times wrote. “It’s politically incorrect to say out loud that there is a need to work with China on certain issues,” as Carney has done in the past, a Toronto-based Chinese politics professor said.