The News
Canada’s center-left Liberal Party won the country’s general election Monday in a stunning turnaround, although it seemed likely to fall short of a majority.
The victory represents a remarkable feat for Mark Carney’s party, which had trailed the opposition Conservatives by twenty points at the beginning of the year.
Carney, a political novice who was appointed as prime minister in March after Justin Trudeau resigned, now faces the challenge of dealing with Washington’s trade war and defining Canada’s role on the world stage.
SIGNALS
Carney must walk ‘difficult tightrope’ on Trump
Mark Carney’s victory was “made by the moment,” The Globe and Mail’s chief political columnist wrote: Carney, an economist, was widely seen as a capable negotiator in the face of US President Donald Trump’s trade war. That could be more difficult having apparently lost out on a majority — the strong government Carney had wanted to deal with Trump. Standing up to Trump without escalating tensions further will represent a “difficult tightrope” for Carney to walk, a former advisor to Justin Trudeau told Reuters. Carney could use the coming June G7 meeting to arrange a meeting with Trump, an analyst told the outlet, but while Canada holding the G7 presidency this year adds to Carney’s platform, Canada remains unlikely to become a “true leader” for the West, another analyst said.
Carney’s win could bolster EU-Canada trade alliance
Canada’s European allies were quick to congratulate Mark Carney, with one Italian politician characterizing the win to the Financial Times as”the first victory of democracy against a new and unacceptable imperialistic and bullish action from Washington.” Brussels and Ottawa are both keen to increase trade, and bolstering a 2014 free trade pact will likely be high on Carney’s agenda, but a Wilson Center analyst noted in March, “in a hyper-competitive global economy [Canada and Europe] need to further deepen and strengthen economic ties.” Still, Canada’s dependence on the US export market means that businesses may see trade with the bloc as “diversification,” rather than a replacement, the president of the Canada EU Trade and Investment Association said.
Carney still faces significant domestic difficulties
The Liberal party’s win represented an incredible turnaround in the party’s fortunes, but the Conservatives’ high vote share shows that “change” remained a popular priority for Canadians, CBC News wrote. The economy has barely avoided recession in recent years amid a cost-of-living crisis, rising inflation, and unaffordable housing. A coalition between the Liberal Party and smaller, left-leaning parties may “not sit well” with voters in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which voted conservative, a columnist in right-leaning The National Post warned. Unless Carney can address many of the issues facing Canadians domestically, the country could soon face “a national unity crisis,” the outlet noted.