The News
A Ukrainian drone struck an oil refinery nearly 750 miles into Russian territory, marking the deepest point that Ukraine has reached in the country as part of its campaign targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure.
Ukraine’s military has launched at least 20 attacks on Russian oil facilities since October and has driven down production capabilities.
On the battlefield, Russia continues to trade high casualty numbers for modest territorial gains. Russian President Vladimir Putin “is getting tiny amounts of land,” Admiral Tony Radakin, the UK’s top military official, told reporters in Washington on Thursday. “And he’s going to have 500,000 killed or wounded by the end of June.”
SIGNALS
Ukraine attacks have more success in hampering Russia than Western sanctions
Washington has criticized Kyiv’s attacks on refineries over fears that oil prices could spike. But these criticisms are “misplaced,” three oil and military experts argued in Foreign Affairs, because by limiting domestic refining capacity, Ukraine is forcing Russia to export more of its crude oil, pushing global prices down, not up. The strikes achieve what Western sanctions and price caps have failed to do: “Degrade Russia’s financial and logistical ability to wage war while limiting broader damage to the global economy,” they wrote.
Large part of Russia’s oil capacity is beyond Ukraine’s reach
While Ukraine’s strikes are “slowly eroding” Russia’s refining capacity, about 40% of Russia’s oil is located beyond the range of Ukrainian drones, Sergey Vakulenko, a non-resident Scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote in April. Even if Ukraine manages to damage every refinery within its reach,“there will be enough capacity in the Urals and Siberia to meet Russia’s needs for diesel, marine fuel, and fuel oil,” he wrote, and any shortages in gasoline will be filled in by its neighboring ally Belarus. While private consumers might be impacted by shortages, Moscow will have “more than enough fuel for industry, agriculture, and the armed forces.”
Ukraine could be working to limit Russian glide bomb strikes
While using drones to target oil refineries, Ukraine also struck an airbase deep in Russian territory last month, in what analysts believe might be an effort to target glide bombs, Business Insider reported. Russia has ramped up its glide bomb strikes against Ukraine; they are difficult to detect and have devastating impact. Ukraine’s ability to limit Russia’s glide bomb usage is “key to the wider defense of the frontlines,” the UK’s defense ministry said.