The News
Iran began five days of national mourning on Tuesday following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on Sunday. Thousands of people gathered in Tabriz, the capital of Iran’s East Azerbaijan province, to mourn Raisi, but some Iran watchers have noted how limited the public displays of grief appeared.
The muted atmosphere is a contrast to past reactions to the deaths of other high-ranking officials in Iran, like Revolutionary Guard general Qasem Soleimani, who’s 2020 funeral drew large crowds of mourners after he was killed in a US-ordered drone strike in Baghdad, Reuters noted.
SIGNALS
Dissidents say Iranians urged to attend funeral
The Iranian government is reportedly “desperate” for people to attend Raisi’s funeral, and anti-government protesters told Britain’s Sky News they had received calls from officials urging them to go to events to mark the president’s death. “I don’t think many people will show up, and anyone that does, is most certainly one of their own. For ordinary people, this is just another day,” one protester told the outlet. Meanwhile, security has been stepped up in Iran, another protester said, adding, “they are trying to engineer an atmosphere.”
Raisi’s death casts dark legacy over Iran
Raisi presided over Iran as the regime tightened its grip over society, marked by harsh crackdowns on dissidents and more executions in recent years. After his death, demonstrators set off fireworks in the hometown of Mahsa Amini, a young woman whose death in police custody sparked widespread protests in late 2022. “People will celebrate. Raisi’s legacy for Iran is murderous,” Neda Mirzaloo, an Iranian dissident living in Canada, told The National. “Iran now is a security state, there are Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basijis everywhere. He executed and blinded our people.”
Iran looks for a unifying replacement
The cause of the helicopter crash that killed Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian is unclear, but the fallout from their deaths is crystalizing into a succession crisis. “Raisi’s absence can exacerbate the ongoing power struggle within the establishment among various rivaling actors who jockey for higher positions,” United Kingdom-based outlet Iran International noted. “The system will make a massive show of his death and stick to constitutional procedures to show functionality, while it seeks a new recruit who can maintain conservative unity and loyalty to Khamenei,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, told the BBC.