The Scoop
A once-unthinkable outcome is now a live discussion among Democrats: whether they truly need to win Maine to flip the Senate in November.
Democratic groups in Washington closed ranks behind Graham Platner after his decisive primary win on Tuesday, declaring that the novice candidate who’s taken hit after hit can defeat Maine GOP Sen. Susan Collins. But the Senate Democratic Caucus isn’t united behind him, and his series of stumbles has some in the party contending that Collins’ defeat is no longer a prerequisite to winning the majority.
Asked if Maine is the must-have it looked like a few months ago, Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., replied: “No.”
“We have many opportunities. And that map has grown wider as the American people have gotten to see the awful impact of the Trump policies,” Warnock told Semafor. “We’re in the midst of an election. This thing can turn out many ways … but I tell you what, I feel a lot better than I did a year ago.”
On paper, Maine should be the easiest Senate pickup for Democrats. It’s the last reliably blue state held by a Republican on a map otherwise filled with red-state opportunities, and Collins is still beatable given the poor political environment for her party.
Platner supporters say everyone needs to get on board.
“Maine is certainly a place where we think we have a really good pickup opportunity, and you never turn your back on that,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., told Semafor. “He has a really good chance to win in this race. And we should help him do it.”
But for other Democrats, it’s not so simple.
Platner is facing scrutiny for both his comments about women and his past treatment of girlfriends, in addition to his tattoo of a Nazi image and past offensive online posts. Combined with Collins’ record of winning tough races and a growing list of Senate battlegrounds, that’s enough to persuade some Democrats to look beyond Maine.
Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., told Semafor that the party can “absolutely” win the Senate without Maine.
“You’ve got Alaska, you have Sherrod Brown in Ohio, you have [former North Carolina] Gov. Cooper … Iowa. And, you know, Talarico is doing pretty good in Texas. So I think for sure there is a path for us to take the Senate back, and for sure we’re going to make some dents every place that we can,” Rosen said.
Rosen declined to say she would support Platner: “The voters in Maine are going to have to make their decision.”
So did Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., who told Semafor: “I’ve been following events at a distance, but I haven’t got involved in Maine.” Warnock said that “I have not endorsed in that race.”
Platner “has raised a number of issues that speak to where people are living and the struggles that they’re having … and that has struck a nerve with the people of Maine,” Warnock added. “But he’s also had these other issues that have emerged, and that too has struck a nerve.”
One Democratic senator is openly antagonistic toward Platner: Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa. He refers to Platner as “P-Hustle” — Platner’s Reddit moniker — and said he’s “not endorsing Collins” but that “P-Hustle is exactly what he is. Maine made their choice, they’re going to live with it.”
Praising the party’s other “fantastic candidates” from the same five states Rosen cited, Fetterman added: “The question is: Will the Democratic Party add it to the platform that it’s okay if their candidates drop dick pics for a decade on social media, on Kik. Or are we now going to make it formalized that it’s okay if you have Nazi ink?”
Platner recently called Fetterman an “asshole” and a “stooge for AIPAC,” referring to the latter’s support for the Israeli government.
Fetterman countered that Platner is in for a cold reality if he wins as the most junior senator: “For all of the tough talk from P-Hustle: If he does win, he arrives; he’ll be 100, right? He’ll be 100 out of 100.”
Know More
Democratic groups are keeping their Maine ad plans in place, perhaps all the way through November given the likelihood that Platner stays competitive against Collins. To maximize their chances to claim the Senate, Democrats want to keep Maine in play, and there’s no indication yet that stories about Platner’s infidelities or his tattoo of a Nazi image are destroying his candidacy.
In a statement, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said the party’s work means “Democrats have six offensive opportunities on the battleground thanks to that work, and we will flip seats and win the majority.”
Senate Majority PAC spokesperson Lauren French said “Democrats will take back the majority this year, and Maine remains part of the multiple pathways we have to do that.”
“I can imagine a scenario where you lose Maine” and win the majority, said one Democratic senator, while still describing the state as critical — likening battlegrounds to “a basket of eggs, and one egg can break anywhere.”
The big wild card is what kind of damage GOP ads will do to Platner over time. Republicans are preparing to run tens of millions of dollars in attack ads against the candidate, something Democratic Gov. Janet Mills could not do.
“The problem with hanging our hopes on scandal-plagued Graham Platner is that we no longer can trust that the last shoe has dropped with him. Luckily, Democrats have expanded the map,” said one Democratic strategist working on Senate races. “We don’t have to, nor should we, cross our fingers hoping Platner can drag a mountain of baggage across the finish line in Maine anymore.”
Senate Republicans viewed what one person called “bleak” polling around the country on Tuesday at the National Republican Senatorial Committee headquarters that showed Democrats have a real shot at the majority, according to multiple people familiar with the matter. But Collins’ numbers improved slightly after the drumbeat of Platner stories, said one attendee.
“We have a path without Maine. But we’re counting on winning Maine,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn. “There’s a number of states where now we seem to have a decent chance.”
The View From Republicans
The National Republican Senatorial Committee circulated a memo on Wednesday raising alarm that Democrats view Maine as their majority maker and that Platner can still win despite his damage. The NRSC said winning Maine requires “total urgency.”
“Democrats know their path to flipping the Senate runs through Maine, so they’re grudgingly rallying behind Graham Platner as their last resort,” NRSC spokesperson Bernadette Breslin told Semafor.
Room for Disagreement
Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., didn’t think too much of the Maine-free majority scenario.
“We’re going to win Maine. That’s an unfair hypothetical. I mean, if I’m someone who believes that we’re going to win Maine, then I don’t spend any time thinking about not winning Maine, right?” Murphy said. “He’s the clear better candidate there, compared to somebody who is enabling nuclear-grade corruption.”
Burgess’s view
As long as Platner remains viable, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Democrats give up on him. At the same time, the people making the party’s spending decisions can be cold-blooded in the other direction; if better opportunities emerge, or if Platner slips way behind Collins, Democrats could prioritize other states.
If Platner wins, I’ll be planted on the second floor of the Senate to see how he and Fetterman get along next January.
Notable
- Former Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., wrote in the Washington Post that Maine Democrats should back Collins.