Semafor Signals
EU set to reimpose tariffs on Ukraine, a potential sign of tough talks ahead
Insights from Politico, Euractiv, and Carnegie Europe
The News
The EU is expected to reimpose tariffs on Ukrainian sugar and egg imports on Friday, as widespread farmer protests have caused tensions between the bloc and Kyiv.
The reintroduction of tariffs underlines just how difficult Ukraine’s accession negotiations will be with the EU. Ukraine is one of the world’s largest agricultural suppliers, and would receive huge farm subsidies under current EU policies — potentially a key sticking point in accession talks that started this week.
The EU dropped had all tariffs on Ukrainian food in June 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion; then, the move sparked widespread discontent among farmers in Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia who warned they could not compete with the sudden influx of cheap Ukrainian products.
SIGNALS
Hundreds of billions of Euros at play over agricultural policy
The EU’s agricultural policy is the bloc’s largest budget item, worth more than €55 billion per year. As Ukraine has a quarter of the farmland in Europe, it would become the single biggest recipient of agricultural funding if it joins the bloc. Some lawmakers have called for the union’s agricultural policy to be reworked to stop it getting in the way of EU accession, although one EU parliamentarian said there was currently “no vision” for how to solve the problem. One Ukrainian official told Reuters that Kyiv could be willing to forego the agrarian subsidies if necessary, although Ukraine’s official line is that “the rules should be the same for everyone.”
Pro-Russian forces have sought to hijack farmer protests
Pro-Russian forces have been quick to amplify Europe’s farmer protests, seeking to undermine Western support for Ukraine, a guest professor at Sciences Po Paris argued in Politico. Russian social media accounts have shared fake videos of farmers leaving manure outside the Ukrainian embassy in Paris, while a protest in Prague was hijacked by pro-Russian activists. While neither incident has been linked directly to the Kremlin, Western intelligence officials have long warned that Russia often tries to exacerbate existing controversies in the West to stoke trouble. In 2020, Moscow tried to promote racial animosity in the US in the run-up to the election, and it is currently trying to aggravate tensions over the war in Gaza, NBC News reported.
EU officials float major reforms to prepare for a bigger bloc
As accession talks start with Ukraine and Moldova — and momentum grows for EU enlargement to the Western Balkans — European officials are considering plans to reform the bloc in fundamental ways. “Many capitals, including Berlin” are pushing to limit the number of policy areas that depend on unanimity, which has allowed Hungary to repeatedly veto policies that all other member states support, Eurasia Group’s Mujtaba Rahman wrote on X. “Every accession to the EU adds more potential veto players,” a group of French and German experts and former officials noted in a discussion paper. Even so, “it is not realistic for turkeys to vote for Christmas,” one EU analyst said, arguing that Hungary would likely seek concessions in exchange for reforms that would limit its influence.
