Semafor Signals
France’s far-right National Rally dominates in first round of country’s elections: Polls
Insights from La Dépêche du Midi, Le Figaro, and Bloomberg
The News
France’s far-right National Rally party dominated in the first round of legislative elections, receiving about 34% of the vote compared to about 20% for President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance, according to exit polls by Ipsos-Talan for France Télévisions and Radio France. Runoff elections are scheduled for July 7. The left-wing New Popular Front is currently in second place.
As the perspective of a far-right government becomes more likely, all eyes are on French President Emmanuel Macron and his willingness to cooperate with the National Rally, which he has previously warned would radically reshape France for the worse.
SIGNALS
French cities brace for potential violence
Store owners across France have barricaded their doors and windows and shut down early in anticipation of protests, according to Toulouse-based newspaper Le La Dépêche du Midi. Many business owners have “bitter memories'’ of the looting that took place in 2023 alongside national protests against pension reform. “I fear for order, for relations between citizens, for serenity, for civil peace,” Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on France Info radio. “I don’t see the RN as a factor of stability and peace. I see it as a factor of disorder and violence,” he said. While the National Rally has tried to distance itself from past rhetoric inciting violence against certain groups, French authorities are worried that a win could embolden “its more fringe supporters” to violent acts.
High voter turnout could help Macron
Nearly 60% of registered voters had cast their vote by 5 pm local time, Bloomberg reported — the country’s highest turnout in almost four decades for a first-round vote, and some 20 percentage points more as did in the first round of the 2022 elections. The high turnout could have “significant influence on the final outcome,” since it could result in some districts having three candidates standing in the later runoff vote on July 7. The more three-person races there are, the more likely it could be that one candidate drops out to try and coalesce unity around a single anti-National Rally candidate, a potential boost for Macron and his allies.
Can Macron work with a far-right government?
Given the results of the European elections and polling, there is a growing likelihood that the National Rally will win the most seats in parliament. If so, all eyes are on Macron and his willingness to cooperate with a faction of French politicians he has tried and failed to ostracize. Any cooperation may be short lived: Macron is reportedly mulling whether to call another snap election in Summer 2025 if the far-right wins (after a one year minimum period between elections), French newspaper Le Figaro reported. Jordan Bardella — parliamentary leader for the National Front and a likely prime ministerial favorite — is reportedly tuning up his image to appear “more like Macron,” Le Monde noted, a tactic that could win over centrist voters who want a more diplomatic option.
