Semafor Signals
Israel-Hezbollah tensions spike after death of commander, as US urges diplomacy
Insights from Al-Monitor, The Jerusalem Post, and Haaretz
The News
An Israeli strike in southern Lebanon on Wednesday killed a senior Hezbollah commander who helped lead the militant group’s operations.
The leader, identified as Mohammad Naameh Nasser, is the most senior official from the Iran-backed group to be killed by Israel since mid-June. Hezbollah responded by launching at least 100 rockets at northern Israel, according to the Israeli military.
Israel and Hezbollah have stepped up strikes in the last several weeks, leading to fears that tensions could spill over into all-out war. Diplomatic efforts aimed at preventing that outcome have also taken on more urgency.
SIGNALS
Israel’s tone has softened amid US involvement
US special envoy Amos Hochstein, the de facto point person focused on the conflict, met with French officials in Paris Wednesday to discuss ideas for a possible compromise between Israel and Hezbollah. As Washington’s involvement grows, Israel has softened the tone of its threats against the group in recent weeks, and people close to the discussions told Al-Monitor that that deference may allow Western diplomats to push for a stop to hostilities. “The window for diplomacy is closing but not closed,” Middle East Institute fellow Firas Maksad said, adding that July is “looking like either a blessing or curse” for Israel and Hezbollah.
Hezbollah continues to link demands to Gaza ceasefire
Hezbollah reiterated its stance this week that it will not let up on strikes on Israel until the war in Gaza ends, with the group’s second-in-command telling the Associated Press that “if there is a ceasefire in Gaza, we will stop without any discussion.” But ceasefire talks have languished as Hamas continues its “resistance” to Israel, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists on “total victory” over Hamas, a Middle East expert wrote for the Atlantic Council. The link between Hamas and Hezbollah shows that “the time when Israel could fight in Gaza alone, or in the West Bank alone or just in Lebanon, appears to be over,” The Jerusalem Post wrote.
Israel land grab in the West Bank could inflame tensions
Israel announced its biggest seizure of land in the occupied West Bank in three decades on Wednesday, in a move that could worsen the precarious situation on the ground. A pro-Israel US lawmaker, Rep. Elissa Slotkin, condemned the move as “illegal” and said the land seizure would “inflame tensions at a time when everyone should be trying to de-escalate the situation.” Tensions In the West Bank are already at a high: Israeli settlers have attacked Palestinians over 1000 times since Oct. 7, the UN said, and Palestinian militants in the West Bank are increasingly looking to emulate Hamas. “The situation there is dangerously close to disintegrating, which would merge the West Bank with the hostile fronts in Gaza and Lebanon,” an Israeli pundit warned in Haaretz.
