Semafor Signals
‘Chasm’ between how Ukrainians, Europeans view war with Russia ending
Insights from The European Council on Foreign Relations, The Kyiv Independent, and Frankfurter Allgemeine
The News
There is a gulf between how Ukraine and its allies in Europe view the war with Russia and its likely outcome, new research has found.
The European Council on Foreign Relations, an European think tank, found that Ukrainians and other Europeans generally support aiding Ukraine in its fight against Russia, but they disagree on what that support will likely achieve. Ukrainians believe the support can help it win the war; while other Europeans are skeptical of that outcome.
SIGNALS
Support for Ukraine unchanged — but Europeans predict very different outcomes
A survey of almost 20,000 people living in 15 European countries showed that support for Ukraine has remained largely unchanged since the war’s beginning. In the countries surveyed, Europeans support Kyiv, while in Ukraine, “morale is strong.” But they diverge on what sending weapons to Ukraine can possibly achieve: “Ukrainians want more weapons and ammunition to help them win the war, most Europeans want… to put Kyiv in a better negotiating position to end the war,” the think tank found. Another point of disagreement: Ukraine sees potential membership of NATO and the European Union as a “recognition of their bravery,” while other Europeans see potential membership as part of a future settlement.
Ukraine knows West has ‘gloomy’ outlook — but some have questioned validity of intelligence
A report that circulated among German politicians in May suggested that Ukraine could lose significant ground to Russia this year, presenting a “gloomy” outlook in the West for how Kyiv’s defense against Russia would play out, The Kyiv Independent reported. But some politicians who viewed the report questioned its validity, and have argued that the intelligence was presented as deliberately pessimistic. One lawmaker, Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper reported, believed that the reports are “being deliberately ‘spread’ in order to ‘suggest’… that the situation is hopeless and that military support is no longer of any use.”
