Semafor Signals
Venezuelan president’s 11-year rule is being challenged by a resurgent opposition
Insights from Foreign Policy, International Crisis Group, and El País
The News
Venezuela officially kicked off campaigning ahead of the July 28 presidential election, which is threatening the 11-year rule of incumbent President Nicolás Maduro.
Polls show the opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia leading against Maduro, whose Chavismo party has been in power for more than two decades.
Maduro’s party has taken measures that activists describe as oppressive, including preventing the leading opposition candidate from running, and withdrawing an invitation to EU election observers, casting doubt on the possibility of a free and fair election.
SIGNALS
Foreign countries should engage in ‘discreet diplomacy’ to ensure a fair election
There’s a “real chance” the opposition could beat Maduro’s party, an analyst wrote for Foreign Policy: Many voters are disillusioned with his 11-year rule that brought economic woes and en-masse migration. To prepare for a peaceful handover and prevent potential turmoil if Maduro loses, foreign governments and the opposition should engage in “intensive but discreet diplomacy that acknowledges the fears of those who may lose power,” the International Crisis Group argued, and offer reassurances that the “vote isn’t life-threatening to Chavismo and its leaders.”
Analysts baffled by Maduro’s move to resume talks with the US
Maduro’s unexpected decision Monday to resume diplomacy talks with the White House, which had been pushing for a dialogue to ensure a free and fair Venezuelan election, has baffled analysts and opponents, El País wrote. Analysts argued this move means Maduro believes he can win the election fairly, despite unfavorable polls. Others suggested it signals the opposite: Maduro knows he’ll lose, and by engaging with the US, he hopes he can get an agreement signed that will ensure the winning party won’t “persecute the defeated with the machinery of the state.”
Opposition campaign marked by intimidation and grassroots efforts
The ruling party has engaged in intimidation tactics against the opposition in the run up to the official campaigning by using “motorcycle gangs, vengeful tax collectors, and ballots that are more like brainteasers,” NPR reported. For instance, opposition leader María Corina Machado was met by Maduro loyalists blocking the only bridge to a small city she was visiting. However, the opposition’s campaign in the face of restricted funds and access has still been a success, thanks largely to grassroot efforts like using an iron board as a table at a voting station during the opposition primary, and having large groups of motorcyclists accompany Machado during her rallies — a tactic that Maduro tried to imitate.
