Semafor Signals
The Israel-Hamas war is reverberating through Western elections, upending political conventions
Insights from The Guardian, Hyphen, Le Monde, EUObserver, and Foreign Policy
The News
The fraught politics of Israel’s war in Gaza is influencing the outcome of some Western elections.
In the UK, Labour won last week’s election in a landslide, but lost four supposedly safe seats to explicitly pro-Palestinian independent candidates, and faced stiff competition in other strongholds on the issue.
In June’s European Parliament elections, left-leaning candidates criticized centrist EU lawmakers of “hypocrisy” in condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine while remaining quiet on Israel.
And in France, the leftist New Popular Front, which managed to hold off Le Pen’s National Rally in a surprise turn, made recognizing a Palestinian state key to their campaign.
The influence can be felt in the US, too, where some Democrats’ unease over Biden’s handling of the war risks scuppering his chances of re-election in November, especially in key battleground states.
SIGNALS
UK parties may underestimate how strongly voters feel about Gaza
Labour has historically been able to count on British Muslims for support, but in the July 4 election, the party’s vote share fell by an average of 23 points in seats where 20% or more of the population identify as Muslim. Some have suggested these failures are evidence of “sectarian” sentiment among Muslims toward Israel, but this ignores the fact that the Israel-Gaza war resonates with diverse groups in the UK, a columnist argued in The Guardian, and instead treats British Muslims as an angry monolith. Ultimately, any analysis of the “Muslim vote” must acknowledge that although Gaza has united British Muslims in their condemnation, “they rarely speak with one tongue,” a columnist noted in Hyphen.
Gaza highlights a deep polarization in French politics
Israel-Gaza emerged as a key dividing line between France’s leftist New Popular Front and far-right National Rally in both the European and domestic elections. The NR’s unconditional support for Israel reflects a coziness between Europe’s far right and the ultra-nationalist Israeli government, a Le Monde columnist noted. Meanwhile, far-left leader Jean-Luc Melanchon has been positioning himself as a defender of Palestinian rights, a stance that galvanized French Muslim and progressive support, a columnist argued in EUObserver. However, his refusal to condemn the Oct. 7 attacks has left some left-leaning French Jews feeling stuck between a rock and a hard place, Reuters reported.
The Israel-Hamas war is weighing on voters’ minds ahead of US election
The US remains Israel’s closest ally, and Biden’s continued backing for Netanyahu may be hemorrhaging his support among younger voters, American Muslims, and people of color ahead of November’s election, The New York Times reported in May. Biden won the 2020 ticket by uniting diverse groups under the Democratic banner, but his coalition now risks fracturing, the head of Muslim advocacy organization Engage previously told ABC News. And while foreign policy tends to be a second-tier priority for voters, Biden’s stance could lose him support in key swing states like Michigan, which has a large Arab and Muslim population, Foreign Policy noted. These voters are unlikely to switch to Trump, but the danger for Biden is that they may not vote at all, a columnist wrote for the Arab Center D.C.
