Semafor Signals
China is closely watching US election chaos
Insights from The Economist and The Hill
The News
China is watching the US’ political turmoil with glee — and some wariness over the uncertainty it could unleash.
Many internet users and state media outlets in China have viewed US President Joe Biden’s poor public performances as a sign of the diminishing reputation of the West. But Chinese officials are also nervous about the possibility and unpredictability of a second Donald Trump presidency.
Some Chinese netizens are rooting for California Gov. Gavin Newsom to replace Biden: He met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing last year, and is seen as more likely to engage with the country.
SIGNALS
‘Schadenfreude’ meets apprehension in Beijing
Any excitement that China may feel about how the US is unraveling is offset by the “apprehension” of a second Trump presidency, The Economist argued. Beijing and Chinese netizens have both watched the chaos surrounding the election race with a level of “schadenfreude,” the newspaper wrote. But regardless of which candidate wins in November, both sides of the American political spectrum agree that China’s desire to create a multipolar global system should be curbed. “Chinese officials may wince should pressures on Mr Biden result in his stepping aside,” The Economist noted.
China torn over which US president might be best
There is much debate over which president Beijing would prefer. Both Trump and Biden are in favor of more tariffs on Chinese goods, and while Biden’s foreign policy is clear-cut, Trump offers an extra layer of unpredictability. A second Trump presidency means China faces a “wild card” in terms of US policies, Patricia Kim, a Chinese foreign policy expert with the Brookings Institution, told The Hill. Chinese officials “are concerned that Biden will continue his policy of tough economic competition with China,” and while “advisors in the Trump campaign speak in very hardline ways… we don’t know exactly what kind of policies that President Trump might prefer,” she said.
