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Semafor Signals

Russia vows ‘military response’ to US missile plan, sparking fears of arms race

Insights from Bloomberg, The i, and Der Spiegel

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Jul 12, 2024, 4:25pm EDT
A medium-range ballistic missile target is launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility, Kauai, Hawaii, Aug. 29, 2017.
A medium-range ballistic missile is launched in a US military test. Latonja Martin/US Department of Defense
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Russian officials have vowed to respond militarily to a US plan to station long-range missiles in Germany for the first time since the Cold War, sparking fears of an arms race between the two nuclear powers.

In an effort to bolster Europe’s defenses, the US will periodically deploy long-range, ground-based missiles in Germany from 2026, it announced at this week’s NATO summit in Washington. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov vowed the Kremlin would react with a “military response to the new threat,” while the Russian foreign ministry said it had already begun work on “countermeasures.”

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Similar missiles were banned by Russia and the US until 2019, seen as uniquely destabilizing in the Cold War because of flight times of as little as 10 minutes.

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SIGNALS

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.

Warnings of return to Cold War arms race

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Sources:  
The i, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy’s Tobias Fella, Federation of American Scientist’s Jon B. Wolfsthal

Arms control experts fear the move could spark tit-for-tat escalation from the Kremlin, warning that it could lead Russia to deploy nuclear-capable missiles in response. “The systems mentioned can hit strategic targets in Russia with high precision and speed. The Kremlin will see this as a further erosion of the strategic balance and will likely react,” Tobias Fella of the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Berlin told Semafor. “We have recreated one of the most dangerous components of the Cold War in Europe and things will only get worse from here,” Jon B. Wolfsthal, who worked on nuclear policy in the Obama administration, wrote on X.

New missiles could make up for Europe’s ‘desperate’ air defense shortfall

Western officials defended the decision, saying it improves Europe’s ability to defend itself and shows the US standing by its commitment to protecting its NATO allies. Because European countries have given away much of their air defense systems to Ukraine, the long-range missiles will help compensate for this shortfall, one senior NATO official told a briefing on the sidelines of this week’s summit, arguing that the Germany-based strike system would also be a form of air defense. “If you can take out the [missile] launchers you can stop the attacks coming towards you,” the official said. “I view that very much in the context of the desperate need to get more air defense into Europe.”

European nations aim to build up stockpile of long-range missiles

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Sources:  
Bloomberg, Der Spiegel

Long-range missiles provided by France and the UK have proved crucial for Ukraine, allowing Kyiv to strike deep behind enemy lines. But the weapons are in short supply, forcing Paris and London to weigh further donations with their own military needs. Meanwhile, several European nations plan to build their own long-range missiles, in an effort to strengthen the continent’s military muscle. “This is clearly a segment we don’t have,” French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said on the sidelines of the NATO summit. So far, Poland, Germany, France, and Italy have agreed to develop missiles with a range of more than 300 miles, making them capable of striking deep into Russia. It comes as Moscow has bolstered its own arsenal of the weapons in recent years, Der Spiegel reported.

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