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Key Chinese economic policy update leaves analysts uncertain over future growth

Jul 21, 2024, 12:08pm EDT
East Asia
A giant screen in Beijing showing news footage of the third plenary session. Tingshu Wang/Reuters
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Chinese officials published a document on Sunday with details of more than 300 economic and other social reform measures that together are the outcome of China’s most recent economic planning meeting, known as the third plenum.

At it, top officials vowed to “deepen reform” by focusing on “high-quality development,” boosting domestic demand, and giving the central government more power over spending. Yet there is also a lack of concrete policy proposals, which could dampen hopes for an economic rebound, analysts told Reuters.

The plan pushes for a continuation of the country’s decade-old Made in China 2025 project, which rejected imports in favor of self-reliance, especially in high-tech goods. This comes during a time of increased sanctions and tariffs against China, which have made it harder to import essential tech, like semiconductors. Going into the plenum, President Xi Jinping had highlighted the need for “new productive forces” in the Chinese economy, and the document proposes new industry upgrades and breakthroughs in technology as a way to achieve such ends without giving detail on how these would happen.

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Ultimately, the meeting and this document predicts a future of “state-led economic growth, innovation and security,” a senior economist told Reuters. “An all-in bet on manufacturing and new productive forces may not be adequate as it is full of uncertainties,” he added.

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