The News
The Trump administration is barreling toward a war funding crisis even as its conflict with Iran escalates, with slim chances of congressional approval for more defense money anytime soon.
House Republicans are on the verge of passing a budget on Wednesday that sets up over $70 billion in new military funding that’s intended to cushion the stress of the expanding war. But the Senate is balking at that budget, leaving lawmakers far from agreement on a binding piece of legislation that can get 50 GOP votes.
With House members set to leave Washington until September, many Republicans are still seeking a clearer picture of the administration’s military cash needs — even as Trump aides insist that Congress needs to act now.
“I don’t know how much is for, you know, yesterday’s war. And what’s for tomorrow’s war,” Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., told Semafor. “So suffice it to say, I’ve begun my investigation, but I can’t tell you have a good sense of it.”
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told senators on Tuesday that the Iran war’s estimated cost so far is $37.5 billion, though that number doesn’t include the cost of rebuilding conflict-damaged US bases in the Middle East. But Hegseth’s push for $67 billion more in emergency Iran spending — while the Pentagon directs $75 billion from last year’s tax cuts law to other military spending — may be obscuring a war cost that is far greater.
“Here’s the reality,” one US official told Semafor. “Everyone knows in the admin that the cost of this war is going to exceed $100 billion, and that head staff and the comptroller in these public testimonies are having to offer lower numbers because they don’t want to create a bad news cycle or upset the president.”
Inside the administration, some argue that the cost of the Iran conflict is being understated given the level of munitions already exhausted overseas. Some hawkish lawmakers and administration aides say the Pentagon will need far more than the $95 billion party-line spending bill that the House GOP wants to pass, which includes $60 billion for the military and $13 billion for intelligence programs.
Pentagon officials on Tuesday declined to explicitly say that the current Iran war funding request will be enough to “get the job done,” as Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., put it.
Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker, R-Miss., told Semafor that he wants more than the $67 billion to help sustain a war that has gone on for months — longer than the president’s initial projection of “weeks” — with no clear end date.
“It would not be my choice” to start at $67 billion, Wicker said. “We need more and it’s better to start off high.”
Wicker wants to get closer to the $1.5 trillion that the administration has sought in annual defense spending, which would be a massive increase over current levels. Democrats want paired spending increases for domestic priorities with any defense spending increase.
Sean Parnell, chief spokesman for the Pentagon, pushed Congress to act faster.
“We have been sounding the alarm for weeks: failure by Congress to swiftly approve the military’s funding requests is not just bureaucratic delay,” Parnell said in a statement. “It will directly endanger American troops engaged in active conflict.”
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, declined to pinpoint the ultimate cost of the war Tuesday: “I can’t answer the question on what it will cost,” he said, “because the enemy has a vote.”
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Without the extra money, Hegseth said Tuesday that the US military will face “critical shortfalls,” saying the money will be used to “sustain our military readiness” and “accelerate critical capabilities.” The Pentagon is already limiting training as its funding runs dry, The Washington Post reported.
“They’ve cut training to a bone,” as the US official put it to Semafor.
One White House official described the prospect of delayed funding as “problematic,” adding: “I don’t know what else to say other than we want the money as soon as possible, obviously, so we can keep investing and replenishing.”
Tuesday’s testimony was designed to provide lawmakers with more information on why the money is needed — and ideally break the logjam that’s built up on the Hill, the White House official said.
But lawmakers on both sides of the aisle clearly left wanting more details, including how they can assert more oversight of the spending and how the administration plans to move towards a conclusion of the war.
House and Senate Republicans also remain deeply divided on their strategy for getting the war funding approved. Republican senators have pushed to appropriate the funding through normal channels, but doing so would require Democratic votes — not a given — and would get delayed by the ailing Sen. Mitch McConnell’s absence.
The House has initiated a party-line maneuver to get the spending approved, exposing deep intraparty divisions in the process.
“It doesn’t appear that this is really setting up much of a process for giving scrutiny to the request and providing directions to how funds can be used in a way that will facilitate an end to this conflict,” said Rep. Kevin Kiley, I-Calif., who caucuses with Republicans and is threatening to vote against the budget resolution.
Democrats argue that the administration’s funding request is simply a way to continue expanding the war in Iran, but the administration may need them to sidestep a Senate filibuster if the Republicans-only approach continues to lag.
“I’ve always worked throughout my career to make sure that the military what they need to protect American troops. But right now, what they are doing is expanding the war. There’s no end to it, and I’m just not into making them capable of continuing it,” said Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., her party’s top appropriator.
Room for Disagreement
Some Republicans believe that the administration is adequately detailing the need for additional war money and its value to the military in the near term.
“They’re explaining what it’s being used for,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., a member of the Appropriations Committee. “We just had the supplemental hearing. They didn’t say: ‘We need more.’ I mean, I’m sure they would take more … but I think this will satisfy what they need right now.”
shelby, burgess, and nicholas’ view
If Washington continues on its current path, the president and Hegseth will get no new war money beyond a routine government funding bill until after the election.
Even the administration’s relatively modest $67 billion request is in huge trouble in the Senate, where Republicans are reluctant to pass another party-line bill.
There’s also plenty of skepticism about that money’s ability to sustain the US military through the Iran war. Which leaves the Pentagon in a tough position, with any future funding requests on even shakier ground.
We wouldn’t be surprised if the administration, despite signaling it’s in dire straits, ends up coming back to Congress in the fall — with a larger number.