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The News
Many European officials fear the return of Donald Trump to the White House in November but they’re not necessarily set on Vice President Kamala Harris, President Joe Biden’s pick for the Democratic nomination, either.
Multiple reports have noted that Europe is already preparing for both scenarios.
SIGNALS
Harris’ appeal may have more to do with Trump’s perceived danger
For European leaders, Harris’ commitment to US engagement on the international stage provides a welcome alternative to Trump’s isolationism, though some officials have cast doubt on her true convictions, unsure of whether her previous comments as VP reflect her own worldview or that of Biden’s, Bloomberg reported. There’s a “renewed sense of excitement” at Harris becoming the Democrats’ frontrunner, CNBC wrote, but that buzz may be more to do with fears about Trump: “There are, obviously, doubts, but she has a very different profile compared to Trump, which is good,” one senior diplomat said. Yet officials cited by Politico variously described Harris as “invisible,” “banal,” and “highly scripted,” remaining unconvinced she can beat Trump, which remains the “critical question.”
European leaders remain focused on Trump, but internally divided
Harris’ candidacy doesn’t change governments’ “basic strategic calculation” that they need to be ready for a Trump win in November, Bloomberg noted. On this prospect, European leaders can be divided into three camps, The Guardian’s diplomatic editor argued: Optimists hopeful that he could be open to persuasion, skeptics who believe it is “beyond time” to Trump-proof Europe, and those who would “positively relish” his return, like Hungary’s premier Viktor Orbán. Trump 2.0 “may not have the same unifying impact on Europe as eight years ago,” the director of Italy-based think tank the International Affairs Institute told the outlet. “How are we going to avoid a rather unseemly show in which different Europeans flock to Washington to kiss the ring,” she added.