The News
For both US political parties, the US relationship with China is a hot priority. Attacks on China from lawmakers up and down the ballot have stepped up as the November election nears, with a focus on trade, manufacturing, and illegal fentanyl.
Biden has enacted tariffs on some Chinese goods and promised more, a hardened stance his Vice President Kamala Harris may continue to follow if she clinches the Democratic nomination for president. Meanwhile, Trump is proposing a 60% tariff if he wins in November.
It could be a key swing-state issue: In Pennsylvania, Republican candidate Dave McCormick has vowed to reduce American dependence on Chinese goods. And in Ohio, Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown and his Republican challenger both say China is a threat to American workers.
Analysts are concerned that while such tough stances cater to domestic political interests, they risk exacerbating global tensions and could negatively affect the US economy.
SIGNALS
A hard-line stance against China works for voters
Tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by the Trump administration did not bring many manufacturing jobs back to the US, economic research published in January found, but it does motivate his voters. “People react very positively, positively from a Republican point of view, to import protection of their local industry,” one study author told The New York Times, “but they don’t punish Republicans that much if their location gets exposed to retaliatory tariffs.” Democrats, meanwhile, are historically motivated by concerns over human rights and the environment. Ultimately, the bipartisan consensus on China has provided a “rare opportunity” for cooperation in the otherwise divided Congress, The Guardian noted in 2023.
Consumer left to bear the price of a ‘trade off’
As president, Biden has raised tariffs on Chinese imports in “strategic industries,” like semiconductors and clean energy, and he maintained most Trump-era tariffs, too. As a result, prices for consumer goods like suitcases and shoes are still far higher now than they were before Trump’s tariffs went in place, and some retailers have had to pass the toll down to their increasingly cost-weary customers. Some estimates suggest, if left in place, the Trump-Biden tariffs will slow the US economy noticeably. “If you want to get to the point where the U.S. maintains and regains leadership in these technological areas, you’re going to have to pay more. And it’s not clear it’ll work,” one economist told the Times. ”
China to focus more on its own economy, turning to new partners
China is turning inward as it seeks to build more self-reliance and brace for more economic turbulence, regardless of who wins the White House in November. Even President Xi is beginning to acknowledge that the Chinese economy is facing “headwinds.” In turn, China is also seeking more trade relations with the “Global South.” Many EV makers are already turning to Africa to counter the effect of being shut out of other key markets. Mu Hong, deputy director of the Party’s central committee office, has told CNBC that “external uncertainties have increased, but they will not impact China’s commitment to and confidence in continued deepening of reform and further opening up.”